It seems a long time ago when the USSR launched a new fighter such as the Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-23 Flogger or later the Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker and partner countries rushed to acquire it. Russia today must contend with the realities of what has become a highly competitive market, where its planes must not only face high-quality American and European manufacture, but also compete with Chinese competition.. The one increasingly paying the price is the heralded Sukhoi Su-57 Felon stealth fighter, for which there simply are no export markets at present.. Even Moscow’s usual customers like Algeria or Syria seem to avoid this plane.
As soon as MAKS 2023 was cancelled, the clouds began to gather over Sukhoi and his announced 5th generation fighter. It must be said that the Su-57 Felon has experienced more delays in development and entry into service than its two main competitors combined: the French Dassault Aviation Rafale F4 and the American Lockheed-Martin F-35A Lightning II. Because they are both top-of-the-line aircraft , which today are nightmares for decision-makers at UAC, Sukhoi’s parent company.
Of course, there’s no question that Algeria, Syria, or even Venezuela will place orders for the French plane or its American competitor. However, Dassault Aviation is in the process of winning an order with which Sukhoi hoped to start the international career of his Su-57: Iraq. Baghdad is no longer hiding its ambitions to acquire the Rafale F4, probably even later this year or early next. Most notably, the tricolor aircraft would allow the Iraqis to remain in American favor, which would not be the case if the Su-57 Felon was selected. At the same time, the Rafale is battle-tested, while the supposedly camouflaged Russian fighter isn’t even on active duty yet. His adventures in Syria or most recently in Ukraine have discredited him far more than has really helped him. These were pre-series devices.
In addition to Iraq, Sukhoi believed in the Su-57 Felon’s chances in the United Arab Emirates for a long time before Dassault Aviation again appeared as a spoilsport and clearly won the market. Eighty Rafale F4s fly there and no Su-57s!
However, according to Russian propagandists, the Sukhoi Su-57 Felon is the best combat aircraft in the world. So good that in July 2023 only twelve pre-series examples are in service with the famous 23rd Guards Aviation Regiment, which is responsible in particular for the air defense of Moscow. The first operational aircraft should not arrive in the units before Christmas 2023 at the earliest. We’ll have to be patient a little longer.
Thus, the Rafale F4 is a serious competitor for the Su-57 Felon. So much so that he snatched two clients from him that could have opened doors for him in the Middle East and eventually around the world. Only its other itchy hair is called the Lockheed-Martin F-35A Lightning II. The American plane, which Russian propaganda sometimes rightly and often wrongly portrays as iron, sells much better than the Sukhoi fighter. In fact, unlike the latter, it sells. Which suddenly, due to the ricochet effect, means that it sells much better than it does. CQFD.
And more and more countries that used to be under the yoke of Moscow, such as Poland or the Czech Republic, are opting for this American aircraft. This, in turn, must have the merit of making the Kremlin’s corridors a little clearer of the complete loss of influence of Russia and its aviation industry in Europe.
The US federal law CAATSA, which provides sanctions for countries that buy Chinese or Russian defense material, cannot explain everything when it comes to commercial failures of the Su-57 Felon. In addition, countries like Algeria, Syria or even Venezuela have never been afraid of them. Why are these three extremely loyal customers still not buying the announced stealth plane? In the case of Syria, the reason appears to be far more economic than anything else, as the Su-57 Felon is currently the most expensive Russian-made fighter jet. And the finances of Damascus are no longer in the red, but in the black!
As for Algeria and Venezuela, it seems a disillusionment with a plane that never proved itself. These two countries also prefer the Sukhoi Su-30 Flanker-C which is older and more rustic but much better suited to their needs than this Su-57 Felon. And they’re right, because it’s still a great multireel platformer. Algerian pilots in particular know how to get the most out of the Su-30.
We also talked for a while about Turkey, which is also a founding member of NATO. Her exclusion from the JSF program by Donald Trump, confirmed by Joe Biden, made her a privileged client of Moscow and the UAC. However, Reccep Tayip Erdogan in Ankara turned down the offer and preferred to focus on his indigenous program TAI TF-X. At the same time, the Turkish authorities are negotiating the modernization of their General Dynamics F-16C/D Fighting Falcons.
Erdogan has no interest in insulting the Atlantic alliance a little more and using this Su-57 Felon would harm the TF-X.
For the past few months in particular, the Russian aircraft manufacturer has had to deal with surprising competition: Chengdu and Shenyang. Chinese aircraft manufacturers are extremely competitive and are flying a 5th generation fighter jet: the J-20 Firefang. Your J-35, in turn, is in the final stages of international development. A device that sooner or later may interest the usual customers of Russia who are not afraid of American repercussions and sanctions.
You will no doubt have understood that potential customers for the Sukhoi Su-57 Felon are now dwindling. Especially since the operational reality of the aircraft in Russia still raises many questions.
case follows.
Photo © Agency Tass.