NATO took an important step on Tuesday by agreeing to issue an “invitation” to Ukraine to join, but only if “conditions” permit. Allied leaders have therefore attempted to demonstrate at the crucial Vilnius summit that Kiev has its place in the Alliance, but not immediately and especially not while the war is raging. Talk of these vague “conditions” has deeply displeased Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who, even before the deal was published, criticized a promise that he not only found vague but assured that it would benefit Russia by implementing the deal option that Kiev’s membership in the alliance could be an issue in hypothetical peace negotiations.
“We have confirmed that Ukraine will be a member of NATO,” Atlantic Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg concluded at a press conference this Tuesday. “Never has language been so strongly agreed upon as it is now in terms of engagement,” the Norwegian added in response to Zelenskyi’s public criticism.
“It is absurd and unprecedented that no deadline is set for Ukraine’s invitation or accession, while at the same time vague wording is added to the conditions for Ukraine’s invitation,” Zelenskyy said on his social networks before leaving for Vilnius. “It seems that there is no provision either to invite Ukraine to NATO or to make it a member of the alliance,” the Ukrainian president lamented. “And for Russia, that means continuing its terror,” he added. The news expresses the disappointment of Zelenski, who calls for more clarity on these “circumstances” and a timeline for the incorporation.
The Ukrainian President’s statements provide a strong pressure element for the allied leaders, who were somewhat at odds over the level of commitment to this future membership at the crucial Vilnius summit that will decide relations with Kiev. Eastern flank countries are pressuring a very positive consensus for Ukraine. The US and Germany, on the other hand, advocate a more prudent stance.
The text agreed by the allies finally includes the word “invitation” desired by Kiev, which was not included in previous versions of the final declaration and represents a clear concession by Berlin and Washington, and also removes Ukraine from the formal MAP (Members’ Plan of Action) process , the specific policy you must meet prior to joining). It’s a gesture aimed at streamlining the driveway.
Once it has been established that Ukraine is not yet ready to join the alliance, nor can it do so by the end of the war – which Zelensky seems to have assumed is, acknowledging during the visit of Spanish President Pedro Sánchez to Kiev: “We need a very strong and clear signal at the Vilnius summit that Ukraine has the right to become a NATO member after the war – now it’s a matter of giving more substance to the prospect of membership that has already been opened up.” At the 2008 summit, it was then declared that Ukraine – and Georgia – would henceforth be members of the alliance, albeit with no definition and no guarantees, leaving Kiev exposed to the Kremlin’s reaction.
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In parallel and as a complement, a group of countries led by the United States – including Germany, the United Kingdom and France, which may also extend to the G-7 countries and even some others, such as Poland – are planning Ukraine bilaterally to offer a “safety mechanism” or “safety arrangement,” as EL PAIS announced. These are political framework agreements that ensure that arms continue to flow into Ukraine on a scale that would deter an attack on Ukraine.
The path of integration is not the only question on the table. On the one hand, new concrete support commitments were announced in Vilnius, such as that of France, whose President Emmanuel Macron has promised that he will deliver longer-range missiles to Kiev. French military sources told several press agencies that it was the Scalp model that had already been delivered to Kiev from the UK. The range is 250 kilometers. Germany, in turn, has announced a new military aid package worth 700 million euros, which includes two Patriot air defense system shuttles, 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 25 tanks and 20,000 artillery pieces.
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