Heavy fighting in Ukraine Where the Ukrainian offensive is progressing
By Martin Morcinek 07/11/2023, 5:19 pm
The full-scale attack by the Ukrainians has now lasted five weeks, and the expected breakthrough has yet to materialize. However, in battles along the approximately 1,000-kilometer front line, several blows can be identified. A glance at the map shows the most important focal points.
In the fight against the invading Russian army, Ukraine is slowly making remarkable progress. Ukrainian forces are advancing on several sectors of the front. The initial euphoria, however, gave way to disappointment after the first phase of the counter-offensive: the fight is extremely tough, every meter of land has to be wrested from the occupiers in bloody battles. The expected rapid advance through the Russian lines is still pending.
However, a map comparison of the current situation with the situation at the beginning of June shows that the front line started to move in at least four places five weeks after the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Ukrainian advances are particularly evident on the Zaporizhia front in the south and near Bakhmut in the east of the country.
According to reports from Ukrainian and Russian sources, there is heavy fighting east of the Kakhovka reservoir near Pyatychatky, south of Orikhiv on the Tokmak front and south of Welyka Novosilka in the east of the Zaporizhia region. In this context, military experts speak of advances or “axes of attack” towards the southern Ukrainian cities of Melitopol and Tokmak (Pyatychatky advance), towards Berdyansk (Orichiv advance) and towards Mariupol (near advance Welyka Nowosilka ).
All three advances in the Zaporizhia region are in the so-called central area of \u200b\u200bthe front between the Kakhovka reservoir and the Donbass. A Ukrainian advance here would have serious consequences for the Russian occupying army: the Russian-controlled land bridge to Crimea runs in a corridor some 100 kilometers wide in this area south of the combat zone. The further south the Ukrainians advance, the narrower it becomes for supply routes for Russian troops.
At Pyatychatky, near the drained Kachowka Reservoir, the Ukrainian attack appears to have stalled in front of the front line of defense of the Russian positional system. However, the fighting there is trapping extensive Russian forces: Putin’s military planners cannot afford to back down tactically here.
After a few kilometers southwest of Pyatychatky, the wide southern Ukrainian steppe plain begins. The comparatively sparsely populated agricultural region gives the advancing army free rein. Up to Crimea, there are almost no natural terrain obstacles between the left bank of Dnipro and Melitopol and only a few places suitable for effective defense.
The Orikhiv advance is just under 30 kilometers to the east. At this point on the front, Ukrainian units have apparently managed to break through the Russian barrage and minefields to the Russian first line of defence. There has been fighting here for several days, including around the village of Roboytne. During the first major battles north of this city in June, among other things, the first Ukrainian Leopard 2 tanks were lost. In early July, Russian military bloggers reported that Ukrainian spearheads had broken into Russian trench systems there.
So far, however, the Ukrainians have made the biggest gains in territory from the current offensive 80 kilometers east at Welyka Nowosilka. There, in the extreme southwest of the Donetsk region, the Ukrainian armed forces managed to liberate more than half a dozen towns as early as June. Place names like Neskuchne, Storoschewe, Blahodatne or Riwnopil represent hard-won Ukrainian successes. The battles there follow the valleys of the Mokri Jaly River, which flows here from Wolnowakha in a northerly direction.
A possible target for the Ukrainian advance near Welyka Nowosilka would be Mariupol: the Ukrainian port city lies about 100 kilometers to the south, on the coast of the Sea of Azov. Mariupol has enormous symbolic significance for both sides: last spring, the invading Russian army only managed to conquer the metropolis, which once had about 450,000 inhabitants, after weeks of siege and brutal bombing.
Russian propaganda, on the other hand, only attributes a similar symbolic value to Bakhmut. There, in the very east of Ukraine, Russian troops are also under heavy pressure. In recent weeks, Ukrainian units have managed to penetrate the city at several points. Ukrainians are systematically digging into one Russian position after another. Even a threatening siege no longer seems impossible.
The exact course of the front can only be determined indirectly in the fog of war and propaganda. The information used here is based on publicly available information, the content of which is checked step by step for plausibility and traceability. The most important source of information is official announcements from Kiev. In addition, there are reviews of Western experts and an abundance of published video material, from which some detailed conclusions can be drawn about the situation at the front.
Information from Russian sources, on the other hand, is unreliable. Unsubstantiated claims are lined up here with obvious lies. Multiple repetitions obviously aim to feed uncertainty and obscure real developments. In individual cases, however, information from the Russian side can provide additional information, for example if the bombing of a previously Russian-controlled city is reported or the dimensions of Ukrainian advances are mentioned.
The most important support for assessing the current course of the front is satellite photos. Sometimes shots from space can provide an independent perspective of what is happening on the ground. Under ideal conditions and with a clear sky in the combat zone, proper comparison shots can be used to identify vehicle tracks, shell holes and newly established positions. In short, these indications condense into a general picture from a distance: As a result, the front line drawn approximates what is happening on the ground with a certain delay. The audience gets a rough picture of the course of the front in Ukraine.