Even if the 45e Although the President has an overwhelming lead over Ron DeSantis in second place in the polls, a number of indicators must be considered before concluding that it is he who will face Joe Biden.
Let’s wait for the debates first
Of course, Trump’s rivals are the first to insist it’s too early to announce a winner. However, they are not naïve and, like everyone else, have found that the point guard’s lead is remarkably stable.
While I understand their need to influence media coverage or attempt disappointment, I would bet little on the ability of major players to shake off Trump.
Can a Mike Pence suddenly sweep a crowd and cause a stir? Chris Christie has already played the role of the attack dog without much success. What more can he say against his opponent?
On the side of Nikki Haley, one of the two candidatures that interest me the most, even if she took office in February, she seems unable to gain a foothold.
The other candidate I’d bet on, Senator Tim Scott, can still hope voters will favor him if they know him a little better, his campaign is very young.
For these candidates, or for the others I haven’t named, the debates are probably the best card to exploit. Almost half of the applications are already being eliminated as a result of the access rules.
These debates should therefore be colorful. If there are only six or seven instead of sixteen or seventeen, the tension from one confrontation to the next will increase significantly.
Donald Trump has already threatened not to show up, especially if he has to promise to rally no matter who wins. However, being the first to do so, I would be surprised if he withdrew from so much visibility and free publicity.
butter and butter money
In addition to the resistance of his rivals, we are missing an important indicator: what will happen to him in court?
For cases that have already been decided (sexual assault) or are known, you will likely need to add a case or two. We are soon set to Georgia (interference) and January 6, 2021 (Trump’s responsibility for the attack).
After collecting all these files to flesh out his case as a “deep state victim,” Trump is now trying to exploit his status as a candidate by demanding that the trials be postponed until the end of the campaign.
When he was president he claimed full immunity, which he is now trying to apply to his campaign. This isn’t the first time Trump has wished for butter and butter money, publicity and immunity.
If Donald Trump does not become the Republican nominee in 2024, barring a dramatic reversal, it will not be because of fierce opposition but rather because he may be hit by the fallout from his run-ins with the judiciary.
