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Updated on 07/16/2023 22:00
Three Russian mercenaries in northern Mali. The undated photo was provided by the French military. © dpa / Uncredited / French Military / AP / dpa
Despite his rebellion against Moscow’s military leadership, fighters from Wagner’s private Russian army are still in demand. President Putin also met mercenary boss Prigozhin at the Kremlin, who has always been his man for the tough in Africa, Syria, Ukraine and elsewhere.
After the near-coup in Russia, which was noticed around the world, she was almost declared dead. But billionaire Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary army is alive. A few days after the uprising, President Vladimir Putin welcomed his former confidant Prigozhin and his commanders to the Kremlin and apparently discussed the future of troops active in the war in Ukraine, Syria and Africa. Meanwhile, Wagner’s people, whom Putin called “traitors” during the June 24 uprising, act with impunity and almost as if nothing had happened.
Wagner’s fighters are now officially deployed in Belarus as military trainers for Putin’s ruler and protégé Alexander Lukashenko. In Russia, the head of the Kremlin, Putin, wants to ensure order in the face of the proliferation of what are now 40 volunteer combat units. Parliament should create a legal basis for them – an undertaking that has failed in the past. Prigozhin always refused.
Russian state media showed attacks on Prigozchin’s companies in St Petersburg – and status symbols such as gold bars, wads of cash and medals from Russia and Wagner’s operations in Africa. For days, it looked like Prigozhin and his Concord corporate empire would soon be history. But he remains in business. Prigozhin earned billions supplying the military – and he always invested part of the profits in his missions in Africa, for example.
Investigative Journalists: The Wagner Brand Will Live For Now
For weeks, investigative journalists from Putin’s opponent Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s Russian disclosure platform Dossier.Center have watched from their London exile as Prigozhin’s plane is traveling between Africa, Russia and Belarus. The Dossier.Center has its own informants in Wagner’s ranks, according to which Prigozhin himself remains in St. Petersburg and acts from there.
The 62-year-old has ordered him and his Wagner team to take a break until early August. But immediately after the uprising, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said that Moscow would not give up its interests in Africa. While in Syria, according to analyzes by Dossier.Center, the Russian Ministry of Defense is likely to take over completely, Prigozhin continues to control the Kremlin’s affairs in Africa.
“The military presence in African states remains in the Kremlin’s geopolitical interest,” according to Dossier.Center. In the end, Prigozhin could emerge as the victor who not only saved his life, but the hard core of his mercenaries as well. “The Wagner brand he founded will live on for a while.”
Gold and Diamonds for the War Chest
Prigozhin’s empire extends particularly across the African continent: Libya, Mali, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Madagascar and Sudan are among the countries that Wagner supplied with mercenaries or disinformation experts, for example. In return, there are commodities – including gold and diamonds. It was also assumed that Russia used this to fill its war coffers.
The Central African Republic and Mali, where more than 1,000 mercenaries are said to be stationed, are particularly dependent on Wagner. States invaded by rebels and terrorists depend on the Russians, even if that means a break with Western partners or even the United Nations. In the Central African capital, Bangui, there is a memorial to mercenaries repeatedly accused of war crimes. They keep the rebels in check and control parts of the economy worth billions.
The continuity of the agreement is vital for governments. Details are secondary. “Russia gave us Wagner, the rest is none of our business,” a Central African Republic presidential aide told the New York Times. A high-ranking representative of Wagner in the country also said in a statement that support for Central Africa will not end. Several flights between Mali and Russia would have been just normal rotations.
“As the turbulent period of negotiations between Putin and Prigozhin appears to be winding down, Wagner’s operations in Africa are likely to continue without major changes,” said Mucahid Durmaz, West Africa expert at security consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. “Even in the unlikely event of Wagner’s dissolution, Russia will be able to offer its client countries alternative private military companies.”
Governments were in danger of becoming too dependent on mercenaries. The power struggle could also have an impact on Russia’s strategic support in Africa: “The mutiny will also undermine Putin’s image of the charismatic strongman that Russia has aggressively promoted in its engagement on the continent.”
In Syria, Wagner defended proximity to the Russian state
The Wagner mercenaries have been officially active in Syria since 2015. There they fight with the Russian military alongside Syria’s ruler Bashar al-Assad – also to protect the regime’s oil fields. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, around 2,000 mercenaries are currently stationed in the civil war-torn country.
Prigozhin’s revolt provoked direct reactions in Syria. Wagner’s force had been warned that activities on the ground would be followed by airstrikes by the Syrian and Russian military, activists at the London-based observatory said. The mercenaries were given the choice of joining Russian troops or leaving the country.
Political analyst Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center told the German Press Agency that his role in Syria is quite limited. His strength in Syria is mainly his “presumed proximity to the (Russian) state”. Breaking with the state will certainly affect its role in Syria, Ali said.
Along with Iran, Russia is the closest ally of the leadership in Damascus in the Syrian civil war. Not least, thanks to the Russian military operation, Assad supporters once again control about two-thirds of the country. (Christina Peters, Amira Rajab and Ulf Mauder, dpa/pak)
Updated on 07/10/2023 at 4:47 pm
The Kremlin has confirmed reports of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner’s mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin following his revolt against the military leadership in June.