The Black Sea Grain Initiative – a United Nations-Turkey negotiated deal between Russia and Ukraine – has enabled the export of 32.9 million tonnes of food from war-torn Ukraine since August.
According to the Istanbul-based Joint Coordination Center, more than half of this grain went to developing countries, including countries that received aid from the World Food Program (WFP).
But the war agreement, which has been extended several times, will be terminated on Tuesday, Russia announced on Monday.
Here’s a look at the deal and what it means for the world:
What is the Black Sea Grains Agreement?
The deal — signed by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov in July last year at the luxurious Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul — created a safe corridor for Ukraine’s grain exports from three Ukrainian ports — Odessa, Yuzhny and Chornomorsk.
Under the deal, a coalition of Turkish, Ukrainian and UN officials oversaw the loading of grain onto ships in Ukrainian ports before navigating a pre-planned route through the Black Sea, which is heavily mined by Ukrainian and Russian forces.
Ukrainian pilot ships guided merchant ships transporting the grain in navigating the mined areas around the coast, using a map of safe channels provided by the Ukrainian side.
The ships then crossed the Black Sea towards the Bosphorus in Turkey while being closely monitored by a joint coordination center in Istanbul, which included representatives from the United Nations, Ukraine, Russia and Turkey.
Ships entering Ukraine were checked under the supervision of the same joint coordination center to ensure they were unarmed.
What was the aim of the agreement?
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 resulted in a virtual blockade of the Black Sea, causing Ukraine’s exports to fall to one-sixth of pre-war levels.
Kiev and Moscow are among the world’s top grain exporters, and the blockade has caused grain prices to spike dramatically.
The deal aimed to avert famine by bringing more wheat, sunflower oil, fertilizers and other products to world markets, including for humanitarian purposes.
What did the initiative achieve?
The current deal has helped bring prices down and alleviate a global food crisis.
Wheat, the main ingredient in bread, has fallen about 17 percent so far this year, while corn has fallen about 26 percent.
Ukrainian grain has played a direct role in alleviating a global food crisis: 725,200 tons, or 2.2 percent of shipments, were shipped through the corridor used by the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) to ship aid to countries like Ethiopia, Somalia and Yemen.
The International Rescue Committee describes the grain deal as “a lifeline for the 79 countries and 349 million people on the front lines of food insecurity.”
However, nearly 8 million tons of goods were shipped to China as of Monday, nearly 25 percent of the 32.9 million tons exported, according to the UN, while nearly 44 percent of exports were shipped to high-income countries.
Why did Russia cancel the deal?
Russia had been saying for months that the conditions for extending the agreement had not been met.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week he wanted an end to sanctions against the Russian Agricultural Bank.
Other demands include the resumption of deliveries of farm machinery and parts, the lifting of insurance and reinsurance restrictions, the resumption of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, and the release of assets and accounts of Russian companies involved in food and fertilizer exports.
“The Black Sea agreements have expired today,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “Unfortunately, the part of these Black Sea agreements that affects Russia has not yet been implemented [their] The effect will end,” he added.
Can the Black Sea Grain Corridor work without Russia?
Ukraine’s ports were blocked until the deal last July and it’s unclear whether it would be possible to ship grain since Russia’s withdrawal.
Additional war risk insurance premiums levied upon entry into the Black Sea region are expected to increase and shipowners may be reluctant to allow their ships into a war zone without Russian consent.
War risk insurance for ships has to be renewed every seven days, which costs thousands of dollars.
Can Ukraine export more grain through the EU?
Ukraine has been exporting significant amounts of grain through eastern EU countries since the conflict began. However, there were many logistical challenges, including different track gauges.
Another problem is that the flow of Ukrainian grain through the eastern EU has sparked unrest among farmers in the region, who say it has fallen short of local supplies and been bought up by mills, leaving them no market for their crops had.
As a result, the EU has allowed five countries – Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia – to ban domestic sales of Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds while allowing transit for export to other countries. Currently, this will expire by mid-September.
Larger harvests are also expected in the eastern EU this summer and key ports such as Constanta in Romania are expected to struggle to cope with the amount of grain they are expected to receive, causing congestion and delays to shipping.