The ongoing counter-offensive shows the weaknesses of the Ukrainian army. A report from a group of experts now reveals just how serious this can really be.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive has been going on for more than a month. Successes so far have been modest, at least when judging offensive efforts by territory gains. In the weeks since June 4, Kiev soldiers have managed to retake about 253 square kilometers of Ukrainian soil. That’s all that Vladimir Putin’s army managed to capture in the neighboring country over the past six months. While that sounds like a lot, it still looks disappointing compared to the quick recaptures Ukraine achieved in its surprise offensive in September 2022 (about 3,000 square kilometers in just six days).
Especially since they exact a high price in blood. Dozens of soldiers die every day in Ukraine’s attempts to break through Russian defenses.
Some Western military experts are already talking about the failure of the offensive. Ukraine itself has also repeatedly indicated that the fight against the Russian occupiers is slow and sluggish. So the campaign is a failure? No, says Mark Milley. The US chief of staff stressed Tuesday at the Pentagon that the Ukrainian counter-offensive was anything but a failure.
“I think there’s still a lot to fight for and I stand by what we said before: it’s going to be long, it’s going to be tough, it’s going to be bloody,” Milley said. Milley cited the heavily fortified Russian defense lines in the occupied territories as the biggest obstacle to the Ukrainians’ attempts to break through. “The losses suffered by the Ukrainians in this offensive are not so much due to the strength of the Russian air force as to the minefields,” he said.
The problem of minefields has been adequately described by military experts. In the first months of the year, Russia had a lot of time to expand defense systems in the occupied territories. On many sections of the nearly 1,000-kilometre-long front, Ukrainian troops now encounter three rows of fortifications made up of anti-tank ditches, trenches and concrete structures. In front of them, there are usually extensive minefields. Already there, many Ukrainian attacks stopped.
Ukrainian high command is under enormous pressure
Russian troops laid dozens of different types of mines across the terrain. Even for demining specialists, these are difficult to detect and eliminate. This significantly delays the Ukrainian advance. Success is sometimes only measured in meters and not in kilometers anymore.
In the meantime, the army leadership in Kiev has changed its tactics: instead of attacking the Russian positions with mechanized formations and tanks – lacking adequate artillery and anti-aircraft fire protection – and suffering severe losses in men and materiel, smaller infantry attack groups are now clearing their way through the minefields step by step, row by row of trees. This is exactly what US General Milley had prophesied: a long and bloody battle.
And this battle threatens to become even bloodier, because sooner or later Kiev will have to show some successes, also because the West expects progress in the liberation struggle of the Ukrainians, despite all unconditional declarations of solidarity. Furthermore, a war of attrition lasting years would not be reasonable for the Ukrainian population itself, nor would it be plausible for arms-supply partners in the West. Therefore, the Ukrainian high command is under immense pressure.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin assured that Ukraine’s allies would not waiver in their support: “Our work continues and we will do everything we can to ensure that the Ukrainians succeed.” But anything that isn’t a success threatens to become a problem. Because the ruler of Russia, Vladimir Putin, is biding his time. That’s exactly what he’s betting on: the erosion of Ukraine’s offensive forces and the West’s dwindling patience.