4 climate records that could see the planet close to

4 climate records that could see the planet ‘close to worstcase scenario’

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Forest fire near Athens, amid the heatwave sweeping the northern hemisphere

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  • Author: Georgina Rannard, Erwan Rivault and Jana Tauschinski
  • Roll, from BBC News
  • 2 hours ago

Four climate records for temperature, sea warming and sea ice melt in Antarctica shattered in about a month have alarmed scientists: They claim there is no precedent for the speed of these events.

Nevertheless, experts warn that there is still time to act in order to at least partially reverse the consequences.

Scientists believe the worstcase scenarios of global warming are already underway, although the phenomena are still being studied.

“I’m not aware of a similar time period where records or (similar) anomalies occurred in all parts of the climate,” says Thomas Smith, environmental geographer at the London School of Economics.

The earth is already “in uncharted territory” due to global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels and also heat amplified by the natural climate phenomenon El Niño, says Paulo Ceppi of Imperial College London.

Below are four climate records already broken this summer in the northern hemisphere:

The hottest day ever

July 6 was the hottest day ever measured by scientists, with an average global temperature of 17.08°C, beating a record set in 2016.

According to the European climate monitoring service Copernicus, it is the first time that the global average temperature has exceeded 17 °C.

Southern Europe and areas of North America and China reached temperatures of 45 to 50 °C, resulting in wildfires and many cases of illness and death.

Responsible for this are the continuing emissions of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas.

“Humans are 100% behind this upward trend,” says researcher Friederike Otto of Imperial College London.

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Medical teams in Mexico attend to a dehydrated man on July 14.

hottest month June

The global average temperature in the last month of June was 1.47°C above the average for the preindustrial month. This comparison is made because mankind began emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere during the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century.

While it’s difficult to predict what the average temperature will be over the next decade, Thomas Smith says it’s already certain that the planet “isn’t going to cool down.”

Extreme heat waves in the sea

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Greek Sea, in the midst of a heat wave; The effects are profound on the marine ecosystem, which supplies 50% of the oxygen on the planet

Global average sea temperatures broke records in May, June and July. And the planet is on the verge of beating the 2016 record for the highest sea surface temperature ever recorded.

But it’s the extreme heat in the North Atlantic that worries scientists most.

“We have never had an ocean heatwave in this part of the Atlantic. I didn’t expect that,” says Daniela Schmidt, Professor of Geosciences at the University of Bristol.

In June, temperatures on the west coast of Ireland were between 4°C and 5°C above average. Although the direct link to global warming is still being studied, what is certain is that the oceans absorb most of the heat in the atmosphere, explains Schmidt.

The scientist emphasizes that this could have an impact on marine ecosystems, which produce 50% of the world’s oxygen.

“When we talk about heat waves, people often think of dying trees and grasses. (But) the Atlantic is 5°C warmer than it should be which means that (marine) organisms need 50% more food to function normally,” says Schmidt.

Antarctic sea ice at record low

The area covered by sea ice in Antarctica is at its lowest on record. Compared to the average between 1981 and 2010, an area ten times the size of the United Kingdom has melted.

Scientists are still trying to understand exactly how this is related to climate change. Warming oceans tend to reduce sea ice, but a drop as dramatic as the current one could also be related to regional climate or ocean currents, says Caroline Holmes of the British Antarctic Survey project.

“I had never seen that in July. (The ice) is down 10% from the previous low, which is impressive,” she explains, noting that this is further evidence that “we don’t really understand the pace of climate change.”

“We can say we’ve already fallen into the abyss, but we don’t know what’s down there,” adds Holmes.

“I think we were surprised by the speed at which this happened. This is definitely not the best possible scenario (in terms of global warming). It’s closer to the worstcase scenario.”

New climate records are expected in the second half of the year and in early 2024. But it’s wrong to say we’re in a runaway “climate meltdown,” says Otto.

She claims that we are in a new era that is still unknown, “but we still have time to guarantee humanity a viable future”.

With additional reporting from Mark Poynting and Becky Dale