When Caleb Williams struck the Heisman pose after his five-yard touchdown streak against Notre Dame last November, punters began making plans for how to spend their winning ticket. Williams’ four touchdown performance made him the big favorite and closed the window for every remaining value in the Heisman market. If you haven’t had a bet on Williams Heisman at this point, then good luck next year.
The Heisman Trophy Awards can be one of the most unpredictable and exciting betting markets. A single hiatus can sabotage a season and, in turn, ruin a Heisman hopeful’s chances. It can also be very profitable at this time of year to take advantage of high odds before the roller coaster ride of the season begins.
Williams is the betting favorite (+500) to win the award, although it’s a rare achievement in consecutive seasons. If he is to succeed, Williams would be the first player in nearly 50 years to do so again (Archie Griffin 1974-75). As much as I believe he’ll be even better this season, I don’t think now is the time to jump in and bet against five decades of history. Summer is the season of long hitters, so it’s better to spend my time trying out a few solid candidates with very high odds. Once the season begins, they will either fall off or shorten rapidly. I’ve rounded up three players with scores of 20:1 or better who are interesting candidates for the award. We’ll start with the highest odds first.
Brent Venables needs to make his living to stand a chance, but Gabriel ticks a lot of boxes despite last season’s nightmare with Norman. Voters traditionally favor the boys below the middle — eight of the last 10 winners have been quarterbacks. Gabriel directs an offense that has the potential to be very explosive, and he’s playing for a high-profile program guaranteed to garner national attention all season long. Last year, Gabriel opened 40-1, but things quickly fell apart after he was eliminated after a loss to TCU and missed the following week’s rivalry game against Texas. The Sooners suffered four more losses this season with just one field goal, with Gabriel failing to overcome an Oklahoma defense that was ranked 122nd nationally.
The combination of Venables’ defense improvement and Gabriel’s second year in Jeff Lebby’s system can reasonably convert those narrow losses into wins in 2023. Oklahoma has the second lowest odds of winning the Big 12 (+325) behind Texas. If the Soooners manage to defeat the Longhorns in early October, the return could be the kind of national history that makes Gabriel a serious contender. At 50-1 it’s now time to attack Gabriel.
Betting on a non-QB to win always carries some risk, but also offers the chance to capture one of the most influential players in the country at valuable odds. The Michigan running back finished seventh (behind six QBs) in last year’s voting, despite ending his season early in late November with a knee injury. The talent is undoubtedly there. Corum broke through some of the toughest defenses in the country for 1,463 yards at 5.9 yards per rush and 18 touchdowns. He will continue to be the offensive engine of the Wolverines and is poised to field even more players behind one of the strongest offensive lines in the country. Michigan has the second best chance of returning to the college football playoffs on even money and going into a very weak game plan. The momentum behind Michigan’s running back will skyrocket early.
This is where bettors are faced with a difficult choice. Marvin Harrison Jr. is that guy. The Buckeyes wideout could end up being college football’s most talented player. While wide receivers don’t have a long track record of winning awards, Devonta Smith clinched the Heisman for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns just three years ago. It takes a special season, and there’s no doubt that Harrison Jr. has the potential to deliver one. As a sophomore, he was the leading receiver on an attack averaging 44.2 points per game (second in college football). CJ Stroud’s move to Kyle McCord is something to consider, but Ryan Day could easily have snagged a better option in the portal if he hadn’t believed in McCord’s ability to put the ball in the hands of the Buckeyes’ playmakers.
The bet comes down to whether you think 20:1 is good enough for a non-QB. There’s a good chance the quarterbacks will draw early attention. They have the opportunity to boost their stats against off-conference defenses, creating a ripple effect that could increase the odds for players like Harrison Jr. in September. As the QBs hit the teeth of the schedule the following month, Harrison Jr. will still be consistently posting big numbers. However, the Buckeyes start the season with Indiana, Youngstown State and WKU. So, given that defense, there’s also a chance it’ll never go back to 20-1 again. I’d rather try now than risk being left out in the rain if his connection with McCord deepens. He has the talent, the program and the lineage to snatch the honors from a quarterback.