On the one hand, a square steeped in historical significance and symbolism that was the epicenter of the 2015 anti-corruption protests and birth of the Seed Movement, the party of sociologist Bernardo Arévalo, the candidate who is leading the polls for the Guatemalan elections. Shouts of “Yes, you can” and bouquets of flowers ring out from the public, representing one of the slogans of these demonstrations: “You will prosper, Guatemala.” On the other hand, a party at a popular market with its colorful fruit and vegetable stalls where sellers and buyers share the daily shocks of the economy and where union leaders support former First Lady Sandra Torres of United States National Unity Hope (UNE) and have flooded the posts with posters featuring his face.
The conclusions of the presidential campaign, which took place just 3.5 kilometers away and two days apart in Guatemala City, have staged two very different forms of politics for Guatemalans to choose between this Sunday. Arévalo, the surprise first-round candidate, has taken advantage of his corruption fatigue and ran a different campaign with fewer resources and a strong network of young people who trust him and have spread his message across the country and through networks like TikTok. For her part, in her third attempt at the presidency, Torres represents the most traditional way of doing politics, with a campaign aimed at the poorest who still remember the welfare she provided as First Lady and which she promises to promote if she becomes president.
Presidential candidate Bernardo Arévalo of the Movimiento Semilla addresses his supporters during the conclusion of his election campaign in Guatemala City August 16, 2023.SANDRA SEBASTIÁN
At stake is who will rule Central America’s most populous country after years of authoritarian prosperity and accelerated institutional decay under the presidency of Alejandro Giammattei, which has jailed or exiled judges, prosecutors and journalists. In addition, the next president will face major challenges, such as creating prosperity in a country of more than 17 million deeply unequal people, where more than 60% of the population lives below the poverty line and one in two children suffers from chronic malnutrition and many communities lack basic services.
“It’s no ordinary second round where the candidate of lies and misinformation is up against the least worst again,” Arévalo said on Wednesday, alluding to his rival’s previous attempts to seize the presidency during his final campaign. Torres, 67, has abandoned his Social Democrat roots to embrace more conservative positions under the leadership of his running mate, evangelical pastor Romeo Guerra.
“It’s a very different moment because we can change the history of Guatemala. “For the first time in many years, there is a humble, different alternative that is the seed of change,” added the 64-year-old MP on a stage in front of the government palace in Plaza de la Constitución. “In this square where we are today, we met eight years ago and united in the desire to remove the corrupt from power and restore their future to the people of Guatemala,” recalled the former president’s son Juan José Arevalo (1945-1951). ). On Wednesday, the same promenade that spawned his party was packed with Semilla supporters from across the country who chanted ‘yes we can’ and ‘it’s not his turn’ at the idea of having him as president. when someone on stage mentioned Sandra Torres.
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Arevalo clearly leads the polls. The latest, released by Prensa Libre on Wednesday, puts him nearly 30 points clear of Torres. He did it, as he suggested in his final campaign, “a different way” without spending millions and listening to people. Its great pledge is to root out the corruption that is corrupting everything in Guatemala, to stop wasting resources that benefit the populace. His entry into the second round was the big surprise of these elections, which the members of his party attribute, among other things, to the work of their bases, which are mainly made up of young people, and the deputies who have been in place since 2020, in opposition to Congress.
“We’ve always seen support, especially from young people, but also from parents who said to us, ‘I will vote for you because my son has already spoken to me.’ “My son has already told me that you are the best option.” That happened very often. “Somehow the young people pushed their parents to meet Semilla, watch the videos and debates and follow Bernardo, the MPs,” Román Castellanos, one of the 23 MPs Semilla will have in the new government, told EL PAÍS. Congress. Like other members of his party, the 38-year-old political scientist from a Q’eqchi Maya community in Cobán, in the north of the country, knew from his contact with the populace during the election campaign that support for his party was greater than expected. The polls said.
The challenge for the second round was that a predominantly urban team should reach the entire country. “There are department and community leaders from the different language communities that are there,” says Castellanos. However, he admits that the harsh geography makes it “very challenging” to do politics in departments like the northern tuck. These are places where communication networks are limited and access is expensive. Another challenge is the clientelism displayed by several party members in many communities, where they expect candidates to ask to vote in exchange for food, building plans or even cash.
The illusion created by Semilla’s unexpected appearance also met with resentment from the groups that have traditionally held power in Guatemala, who have sought to stem the country’s advance through legal prosecution. However, judging by the polls and support on the street, far from stopping him, these moves appear to have strengthened him.
“It’s an attack on democracy. They use the institutions to use them in the interests of a group,” says Lisette Gálvez García, a 54-year-old woman from Chimaltenango in the center of the country, who stayed in the Plaza de la Constitución during the campaign’s conclusion. de Semilla with her mother Vitalina (87 years old) and her sister Isabel (54). “Corruption runs deep in Guatemala. It will be difficult for Arévalo to govern, but there is a will. Sometimes the Guatemalans find it difficult to react to this. We’ve become resistant to pain,” says Isabel, who says she’s counting down the days and hours until Sunday, a day when she says “the transformation and restructuring” of the country is at stake.
Semilla MPs hold a card made of flowers during the closing of the campaign at Parque Central in Guatemala City August 16.SANDRA SEBASTIAN
Sandra Torres, a sponsorship campaign aimed at the poor
The delegation of the candidate for the National Unity of Hope, Sandra Torres Casanova, makes its way through the alleys of the supply center of the Guatemalan capital, La Terminal, where the sale of papayas, pineapples and other seasonal fruits, cereals, staple foods, etc. takes place endlessly Goods, little room to run. In the background an outdoor area surrounded by avocado sales, a crowd of mostly vendors and housewives awaiting the conclusion of the campaign for the presidency of Torres, the communicator originally from Melchor de Mencos, a community on the Belize border, originates. .
Torres is coming to the end of his third presidential campaign with the addition of new allies, mayors elected by Alejandro Giammattei’s ruling party and some from the party that nominated Zury Ríos, daughter of former head of state Efraín Ríos Montt, accused of genocide . In her recent presentations, the candidate has attempted to discredit her candidate, the electoral process, and has continued her dynamic of offering gifts or financial incentives to those who vote for her. And it is precisely this search for help that mobilized several participants in the last Torres rally this Friday.
While the contestant arrived, the crowd was entertained with a wrestling show and the presentation of the Los Miseria Cumbia Band. Their singer Pablo Cristiani was critical of the 2015 anti-corruption citizen protests, and one of his brothers is a former Patriot Party MP who has been accused of corruption. Torres took the stage at 11 a.m. with an hour of voting silence remaining. He was accompanied by two of his party’s elected MPs and the vice presidential nominee. An evangelical pastor prayed before Romeo Guerra spoke. On stage, they spoke about the importance of preserving the traditional family and opposed abortion, equal marriage and the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
But these speeches don’t heat up the public the way campaign offers do: help the poor, deliver fertilizers and the expanded solidarity bag, a package of basic necessities, grain and foodstuffs that Torres promises to give to every family when she’s president.
La Terminal vendors work in front of a Sandra Torres poster in Guatemala City August 18. SANDRA SEBASTIAN
Below the stage, people remember Torres as a charitable and generous First Lady. “She always helped us. When we were sick, we would go to the President’s house and he would give us (money) for medicines,” says María Flores, a 56-year-old housewife. Torres was married to Álvaro Colom, who ruled between 2008 and 2011, and died last January.
During the activity, men in t-shirts with the UNE party logo mingled with the crowd to give away promotional items. A video distributed on social networks indicates a money handover, at other rallies the press documented the distribution of cash and raffles for electronic devices. Hours before Torres delivered her final speech, digital media company ConCriterio released audio of a meeting the candidate held with mayors to whom she offered trips to the Mexican Caribbean. “After we win the presidency, we will pay for a trip to Cancun; So they start asking for permission.”
Torres refused to answer questions about it. The candidate claims to be the best government option because she knows people’s needs. “They’ll be better off with me,” he says, adding, “The poor settle for little because they have nothing.”
Much of Torres’ runoff campaign focused on discrediting Arévalo. In recent days, when his decline in the polls has been confirmed, he has embraced the allegations made by the prosecutor in charge of Rafael Curruchiche for the alleged forgery of signatures for the creation of the political party which, after complying with all the procedures, It became 2018 legally established.
Hours before the end of the election campaign, Torres issued a statement to the media demanding that the Supreme Electoral Court replace three digitizers linked to the Semilla party, one of the latest findings prosecutors have announced and that according to Torres suspected an advantage for Arevalo. The electoral court has clarified that the results are recorded in the minutes and the only function of the case officers is to enter data into the transmission system. But far from calling for Sunday’s vote, Sandra Torres’ final public hours have been marked by attacks and complaints. She was seldom seen smiling, perhaps an omen for the hours to come.
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