A new actor has joined the political soap opera that Thailand has been immersed in since last May’s elections: Thaksin Shinawatra. The prime minister, deposed after a military coup in 2006, ended 15 years of voluntary exile on Tuesday, coinciding with the day Parliament named a like-minded candidate, Srettha Thavisin, as head of government.
Shinawatra, the billionaire founder of the populist Pheu Thai party, which is currently leading the government formation, was sentenced to multiple terms in absentia as soon as he arrived in Bangkok. Some academics, quoted by local media, believe his return was part of a ploy to convince the Senate – made up mostly of military generals – to approve the candidacy of Srettha Thavisin, who is at the head of a broad coalition pro- parties presented by democratic forces and others who are in favor of the army. Last month, the upper house voted against the victor, Pita Limjaroenrat of the reformist Avanzar group, who was expelled from the alliance.
Thaksin Shinawatra, 74, has lived in self-exile since 2008, partly to avoid charges of corruption and abuse of power linked to his telecommunications companies, which helped him amass his wealth. During those years, the tycoon and former Manchester City owner has lived in the UK, Hong Kong and Dubai, avoiding set foot in his native Thailand at all costs for fear of not being treated fairly. He was tried in absentia and charged with three crimes related to his leadership at the top of the country and his former company, Shin Corp. found guilty.
This Tuesday, his private jet landed at around 9:00 a.m. local time (3:00 a.m. in mainland Spain) at Don Mueang International Airport in Bangkok, where hundreds of supporters were waiting for him. The former leader was quickly arrested and taken by Supreme Court police to a prison in the capital, where he will spend eight years behind bars. However, the impending return to power of the party linked to his family could later lead to a reduction in the sentence.
Pheu Thai was the second most popular party in the May 14 elections. His pact with the victorious Avanzar formation collapsed after that party’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, failed to garner support from the monarchist and military elites last July. On Tuesday, hours after Thaksin’s arrival, Thailand’s parliament voted in favor of Srettha Thavisin as the country’s 30th prime minister. The 60-year-old real estate entrepreneur entered politics just months ago and will replace Gen Prayut Chan-O-Cha, who has led the country since the 2014 coup.
The history between the Shinawatra family and the military is long and bitter. The military ousted Thaksin in a coup in 2006 and his sister Yingluck in 2014. The return of the elder Shinawatra has therefore sparked speculation about a behind-the-scenes alliance between the Pheu Thai party and his former enemies to allow him to return safely to the Southeast Asian country. His sister Yingluck has been in exile in Dubai for six years and faces charges of negligence related to a rice subsidy program during her time at the helm. On Monday he accompanied his brother to Singapore, from where he flew to Bangkok. “The day you’ve been waiting for has arrived. Good luck bro,” worries the message, which accompanies a video he posted to his Instagram account. When Thaksin left Thailand in 2008, he said: “If I’m lucky, I’ll come back and die on Thai soil.”
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The result of Tuesday’s vote is the latest twist in a nearly two-decade-old power struggle between the Pheu Thai Party, which has won five general elections, and a union between conservative elites, the military and wealthy families that have long held sway in national politics have and the economy. “We don’t lie to people, but we have to be realistic,” Srettha said Monday, explaining she has no choice but to ally with some rivals she previously vowed not to work with.
The political novice faces the difficult task of forming and holding together a coalition that appears very fragile and includes parties backed by the royalist military, which previously toppled two of his party’s governments. In a poll released Sunday by the National Institute for Development Management, 64 percent of respondents said they disagreed with the idea of a Pheu Thai alliance with military-backed formations.
Thanaporn Sriyankul, director of the Thai Institute for Policy and Political Analysis, told the Bangkok Post that Thaksin returned because he was confident that the Pheu Thai government could form a government, and according to this source, all indications are that he supports her will become leader. This analyst believes Thaksin must serve as a “political hostage” to reassure the military parties (the United Nations of Thailand and Palang Pracharath) that Pheu Thai is willing to cooperate.
A key figure from his exile
Since his exile, Thaksin Shinawatra has been a central and divisive figure in Thai politics, backed by his supporters known as “red shirts” against the “yellow,” conservative elements who have fallen in love with the monarchy, Agence France Presse points out. (AFP). Thaksin, who has been accused of corruption by his critics, has repeatedly denounced what he believes was a legal maneuver aimed at removing him from power for the benefit of the military and monarchical elites. By adding pro-army parties to its coalition, the Pheu Thai formation, which received the second most votes in May’s elections, expects a show of power in favor of Thaksin Shinawatra, whose condition requires medical monitoring with heart and lung problems.
Political scientist Aaron Connelly notes, “If the King doesn’t pardon Thaksin by a certain deadline, the Pheu Thai party could start raising questions about the coalition formed to seize power,” according to an official in Thailand’s prison administration the application for a royal pardon takes between one and two months.
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