Harare, Zimbabwe – For days, Lolo Zuma, a 37-year-old mother of three, has been pondering how to provide for her three school-age children.
“If the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu PF) wins, I will become a sex worker to support my three children,” Zuma told Al Jazeera as the vote count in Thursday’s general election was underway. As if to underscore her commitment to her new job, she opened a box containing hundreds of condoms she’d picked up at a local clinic earlier in the day.
Late on Saturday, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) declared 80-year-old Zanu PF incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa the winner with 52 percent of the vote. Opposition leader Nelson Chamisa, 45, who heads the Citizens Coalition for Change, got 44 percent, according to a commission statement.
Zimbabwe held its election on Wednesday but after ZEC failed to provide ballot papers to voters in the capital Harare and Bulawayo, Mnangagwa was forced to extend voting for another day.
Zuma says two of her three children have important high school exams in November and that she was forced to choose sex work because she can no longer rely on the income from her laundry and housework in the poor area of Kuwadzana, west of Harare.
“People are out of money and would rather wash themselves or do chores than pay,” she said.
Zuma said she voted out of fear that Zimbabwe’s ruling Zanu PF party could win again.
Many Zimbabweans supported opposition leader Nelson Chamisa in hopes he could bring about change and revitalize the economy [File: John Wessels/AFP]Chamisa insists he won the previous poll in 2018 but that it was manipulated by Mnangagwa using ZEC, an allegation Zanu PF denies and claims she is popular with the electorate. Following the ZEC announcement on Saturday, an opposition spokesman on X, formerly known as Twitter, said she disagreed with the results.
A Zanu PF victory is a reality for which many Zimbabweans are unprepared. “If Zanu PF wins, it means the suffering will continue,” Taurai Gwatidzo, a shoemaker from Harare, told Al Jazeera.
Zimbabwe’s economy is reeling after years of economic mismanagement by the Zanu PF, who have been in power since white minority rule ended in 1980.
The economic crisis has left 90 per cent of Zimbabweans dependent on informal work as the currency collapses and prices rise. Once a breadbasket of southern Africa and home to one of the continent’s most advanced manufacturing industries, the country is a pale shadow of its former self.
“I think if Zanu PF wins, the party will be under a lot of pressure to make significant economic improvements. He [Mnangagwa] will be under a lot of pressure to leave a legacy as this will be his final term and it could be a good thing for the economy. Therefore, his second term could be better than his first,” Prosper Chitambara, an independent development economist, told Al Jazeera. “That’s the best-case scenario.”
The worst-case scenario, he says, is a continuation of the Mnangagwa government’s economic policies of the past five years.
Under his leadership, the currency has depreciated against the US dollar due to rampant money printing. The prices of goods are so high that ordinary people cannot afford them and the majority of Zimbabweans are forced to take some kind of menial work to survive.
The US dollar is traded between 1 and 7,000 Zimbabwe dollars. Inflation is almost 200 percent.
“They were challenges in economic reforms in the first five years. I think they learned from their mistakes. I think the common man is looking for changes in the economy,” Chitambara said.
With Mnangagwa’s victory now confirmed, many fear the outlook for the country’s economy has grown bleaker after decades of mismanagement.
“I live hand to mouth”
Mnangagwa first became president in 2017, replacing Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s first post-independence leader, who was ousted in a coup d’état following mass street protests against his rule. Before the two fell out, Mnangagwa had worked closely with Mugabe and held top positions in government, including Vice President and Minister of State Security.
“It is every Zimbabwean’s hope that there will be an end to the perennial problems we face such as loss of savings, loss of purchasing power, loss of livelihood and extreme cases of poverty,” said Victor Bhoroma, an independent Economist from Harare, opposite Al Jazeera.
But even if Chamisa had won, it would have taken a lot of work to revitalize Zimbabwe’s long-suffering economy.
“There’s a lot to do for whoever takes the lead. “The country has a huge debt burden and needs to normalize relations with international financiers, infrastructure is in tatters and the economy is broadly an informal economy that has failed to absorb graduates,” Chitambara said.
The country owes $12 billion to foreign lenders and another $6 billion locally. Economists say macroeconomic reforms, cutting back on unproductive spending and monetary policy reforms are needed to ensure discipline and contain monetary growth.
Many Zimbabweans are struggling after decades of economic mismanagement [File Philimon Bulawayo/Reuters]Chitambara said a new government must also implement “institutional reforms” of state-owned companies and ensure the business environment is not “stressful”.
“Our fuel is the second most expensive in Africa. We need to reform our tax system to become competitive. There is still a lot to be done to make Zimbabwe competitive,” he added.
Independent economist Tatenda Mabhande offers hope for the economy under Mnangagwa but warned that electoral irregularities could negatively impact the “credibility of the outcome of the 2023 election and weaken confidence in the economy”.
He said the dual currency system is likely to continue for the time being and the central bank will try to stabilize the exchange rate.
“The strengthening of the local currency will continue to be the focus of the RBZ [Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s] Mandate,” Mabhande told Al Jazeera. Zimbabwe uses both the Zimbabwe dollar and the US dollar for transactions after adopting the US dollar in 2009 to end hyperinflation.
On the budget front, balancing budgets should remain the focus of the Zanu PF-led government, Mabhande said.
Given the role these sectors have played in fueling economic growth, he expects spending pressures in agriculture, mining and infrastructure development.
“Government spending will benefit companies in the value chains of these sectors and create jobs. “An increase in the employment rate will have a positive impact on aggregate demand in the overall economy and boost much-needed economic growth through the multiplier effect,” Mabhande said.
Many everyday Zimbabweans, long-time victims of Zanu PF’s ruinous economic policies, see only more trouble ahead.
“The only time I enjoyed life in Zimbabwe was the unity government days in 2009 and 2013 when we used US dollars,” Gwatidzo, the shoemaker, told Al Jazeera. “Now I can’t save because of inflation and I’m living hand to mouth.”