The two main opposition leaders in Argentina are united in a common goal: to put an end to Kirchnerism. The differences between far-right Javier Milei and conservative Patricia Bullrich are fading when it comes to defeating the political movement that has dominated Argentina’s political life for the past two decades but finds itself in a moment of unprecedented weakness. In the opening kilometers of the 2023 election marathon, the ruling party lost control of provinces that were historic bastions; In the middle of the race, the primaries on August 13, he failed: He finished third with 27% of the vote, behind Mileis La Libertad Avanza and Bullrich’s Juntos por el Cambio-Allianz.
Should the results of the primary elections be repeated in the general elections on October 22, the pro-government candidate and current economy minister Sergio Massa would be expelled in a second round and Kirchnerism would become the opposition. A defeat would be a much harder blow than that suffered by conservative Mauricio Macri in the 2015 election when he succeeded Cristina Kirchner to power.
Macri welcomed a country with a sluggish economy, but in 2015 the memory of 12 years of Kirchnerist Peronism was still positive for many sectors. From the opposition they could show the recovery of the indicators after the economic and social crisis of 2001. The reality is very different now. With inflation in excess of 113% year-on-year, 40% poverty, fiscal and trade deficits and the central bank in the red, its opposition role would be much more complex, government sources concede. If Kirchnerism left the fridge full eight years ago, today it is empty.
exit to the left
Kirchnerism arose in response to the Corralito Crisis of 2001–2002. It was a departure from the left at the collapse of Carlos Menem’s (1989-1999) neoliberal model. President Fernando de la Rúa fled by helicopter on the eve of the 2001 Christmas holidays. 39 people died on the streets as a result of police repression, record poverty rates and Argentines’ savings trapped in the banks. Argentina had five presidents in just over a week until Peronist Eduardo Duhalde took the reins. He devalued the currency, corrected the economy and distributed money to those most affected.
In the 2003 election, Duhalde approached the unknown governor of the remote Patagonian province of Santa Cruz, Néstor Kirchner, to defeat Menem. He was second behind the former president with 22% of the vote, but did not have to compete in the second round as Menem resigned, already convinced of his defeat.
Kirchner took office on May 25 and in a short time distanced himself from Duhalde and built his own power, causing fragmented Peronism to line up behind him. International food price increases and a devalued and competitive currency drove Argentina’s economy to grow by more than 8% between 2005 and 2007. By promoting trials for crimes against humanity, Kirchner also became a benchmark for human rights organizations. Many young people raised in the neoliberalism of the 1990s saw the progressive version of Peronism as a reason to enter politics.
With the regional tailwind, Kirchner provided government aid to the most disadvantaged — poverty rose from 50% to 30% — boosted domestic consumption and hoisted another banner: debt reduction. In January 2006, the government canceled nearly $10 billion in advance in debt to the International Monetary Fund. After four years in office, Néstor Kirchner chose his wife as his successor. Cristina Kirchner served two consecutive terms. Equal marriage and gender identity laws were passed during these years, placing Argentina at the forefront of sexual minority rights.
Carry
In 2015, after 12 years in power, the attrition of Kirchnerism was evident. The rural crisis of 2009 – caused by a tax hike that had to be rolled back – turned the South American country’s economic engine against itself. It weathered the blow, but the economic downturn has since accelerated, as has inflation, and the downward poverty curve has inverted, despite the statistical lockdown designed to hide it. Massa recognized the weakness of Kirchnerism in those years and attacked it: he ran in the 2013 parliamentary elections and won as an opponent. In 2015, his bid to achieve the presidency outside the Peronist apparatus failed, but with resounding failure.
Macri was the winner of those elections and with his move to the Casa Rosada in 2015, Kirchnerism was considered dead. Cristina Kirchner failed even to maintain her great stronghold, Buenos Aires Province, the country’s largest constituency. The Makrista María Eugenia Vidal was elected governor of Buenos Aires. But during Macri’s tenure, Kirchnerism reinvented itself and in 2019, as the country plunged into an economic crisis and was again in debt to the International Monetary Fund, he returned to the presidency with a formula led by Alberto Fernández and with Kirchner as vice president.
The internal alliance was soon broken and the pair ruled against each other. Massa used the fighting to seize power from within as super economy minister. A year later, thanks to the support of the governors, he was able to assert himself as a candidate for the unity of Peronism, although he later admitted unequal competition within the party with the social reference point Juan Grabois.
Argentina’s disappointment with the government is enormous. Between the 2019 primaries and those of 2023, Kirchner’s Peronism lost nearly half the vote, falling from 12.2 million to 6.4 million. He only won in five provinces, although among them the most coveted piece is that of Buenos Aires. Kirchnerism is determined to retreat there in the event of defeat, and the opposition seeks the opposite, namely to conquer this possible haven. It will be the big battlefield on October 22nd.
“Neither to the rear nor to the right. A right to the future,” read the election posters for the re-election of Kirchnerist Axel Kicillof as governor of Buenos Aires. There is no trace in the propaganda of the pro-government alliance “Union for the Fatherland”, which wants to take away Massa’s luck in the race for the presidency.
Kirchner’s exit in the closing stages of Massa’s election campaign and his silence since losing the primary elections are worrying some voters who are still puzzled – and angered – by the shift in slum votes from Kirchnerism to Utlra Milei. If 20 years ago the exit was on the left, today the country is looking for the door on the right.
From the Unión por la Patria they assure that the vice-president is committed to the election campaign and deny that the end of Kirchnerism is near. “It’s like always: if there’s a lot there, it’s because there’s a lot there, and if it’s not there, it’s because it’s not there.” “It’s difficult to find a middle ground” , says a source in the Peronist coalition. The polls will have the last word.
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