Venezuela’s economic collapse came years before international sanctions were imposed on Nicolás Maduro’s government, but without their lifting Venezuela will find it very difficult to embark on the path to full recovery. And while some are banking on a political solution that would resolve the Venezuelan crisis through fair elections, everyone knows the country could remain trapped for years, even decades, in the trap of international sanctions seen as both a threat of consequence and cause.
Although for many it is the pressure of international sanctions that has compelled the government to engage in dialogue with the opposition, the continued validity of its impact has meant it has lost ground in public opinion. There are growing echoes of a Venezuelan lobby strengthening in sectors of US power, which is now pushing policies of energy sector flexibility. Representatives from Maduro and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have sat down in Doha, Qatar to exchange views on the matter. It is already common for businessmen, economists and moderate opposition leaders to call for its final repeal.
Today, the Venezuelan state faces serious obstacles in selling its oil; make economic agreements; buy spare parts; Rental services from American, Canadian or European companies; Access international loans and use your frozen funds abroad. The complications of conducting transactions with the banks of these countries are notorious. In many cases, it comes down to the commented over-compliance, an administrative bias that many companies use to tighten their restrictive position to protect themselves.
Venezuela’s economic and productive collapse came fully to the fore in 2013, shortly after the death of Hugo Chávez. The United States, Canada, the European Union, and initially some Latin American citizens, imposed political, economic, and administrative sanctions on the Maduro government for the crackdown on opposition demonstrations in 2014 and 2017 that left dozens dead; for preventing the parliament, which then controlled the opposition, from sovereignly legislating; for undermining democracy through rigged electoral consultations and for accusing members of the revolutionary leadership of corruption, money laundering and human rights abuses, which are currently being investigated by the International Criminal Court.
According to calculations by the company Datanalisis, 74 percent of the population no longer agrees with the international sanctions against the country, while 17 percent are against it. Almost 30 percent of the population blame the sanctions for the current situation. In particular, 76 percent express their interest in lifting oil sanctions in a country with high debt and miserable wages. Personal sanctions against certain public officials, on the other hand, are supported by 52 percent.
Jorge Roig, former President of Fedecamaras Employers, reiterates that “the sanctions are not in fact intended to change government, but to force one government to sit down and negotiate with the other party.” This was partly in the Dominican Republic, Barbados, Norway and Mexico reached. But the sanctions against the nation have no justification. We have to produce. Conceptually, the sanctions that restrict freedom cannot be borne by business groups, and that was also the case in the past.
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For years, the Maduro government denied the existence of a humanitarian crisis, imposed heavy censorship on the media, stopped publishing economic figures and blamed businessmen for the severe food and medicine shortages that plagued the country for five years, amid price controls and intervention by Company. Since 2019, however, he has held international sanctions responsible for everything that happens in Venezuela.
“Most citizens are aware of the causes of the sanctions and recognize that the government is responsible for what is happening,” says political scientist Luis Vicente León, director of Datanalisis. “The distance to the sanctions comes from the fact that they did not achieve their goal and further aggravated people’s problems. Four years ago, the sanctions were well received by the majority of the population.”
“To claim that sanctions are the ceiling for Venezuela’s economic recovery is not a correct approach,” said opposition leader Leopoldo López, founder of the Voluntad Popular party in exile. “The limit for rebuilding Venezuela is the dictatorship of Maduro. The prime example is this year’s PDVSA crypto corruption case involving Tarek El Aissami, which saw $20 billion in illicit losses. For now, sanctions are the only way to seek minimum-conditions elections.” López acknowledges the need to discriminate against nation-state sanctions from individuals to members of “the regime’s kleptocratic network of politicians, businessmen and beneficiaries.” .
The process of easing sanctions in the energy sector could continue, but a real political solution still seems difficult. “The country would at least have to restart its oil and gas industry, gain access to international credit and recover the assets frozen abroad,” León says, referring to the times of yesteryear.
“Last year Maduro was willing to negotiate, but the environment has cooled down,” said economist Orlando Ochoa shortly before the negotiations. “The economy has serious problems and low revenues. Maduro is stagnant in the polls. These questions are discussed in the PSUV. María Corina Machado, a hardliner, scores in all polls. That would complicate things if there were no flexibility. There are no incentives to make Maduro think he can leave power, quite the opposite.”
The Maduro government has managed to break out of its isolation in recent months with a modest reactivation of capital and international services, in part due to the weakening of Washington’s position. Relations with state capital seem to have normalized. The most important condition that Miraflores places on a political agreement is the immediate end of international sanctions against the country and its government.
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