CNN –
In the early hours of August 29, swarms of Ukrainian drones flew over seven Russian regions. Many were intercepted; some were not.
Several reached a Russian air base in Pskov, about 600 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, destroying two Russian military transport planes and damaging two others.
It was the most dramatic evidence yet of a new dimension to the 18-month conflict: Ukraine’s growing desire to expand the war into Russian territory.
Air and sea drones, mysterious new missiles and sabotage groups are part of the toolbox; Targets include Russian airfields, air defense and shipping.
Ukraine has many reasons to escalate the conflict.
A victory is a victory wherever and whenever it occurs – whether it involves damaging aircraft at a remote Russian air base, disrupting commercial aviation and shipping, embarrassing residents of Russian border regions, or disrupting Russian air defenses in Crimea hold true.
For Ukrainians who have suffered endless drone and missile attacks, evidence of retaliation (albeit on a much smaller scale) is a welcome morale boost, especially when the counteroffensive in the south is still struggling to gain momentum.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has not apologized for extending the conflict to Russian soil, recently saying: “The war is returning to the territory of Russia – to its symbolic centers and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process .”
Attacks far from the current front lines are also evidence of Ukraine’s growing ability to demonstrate power.
This projection deliberately relies not on Western hardware, but on local adaptations, both in terms of technology and tactics. President Volodymyr Zelensky and Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov have repeatedly assured Western donors that their weapons will not be used against targets inside Russia; This would be viewed by Moscow as an act of aggression that would make it a party to the conflict.
This point was reiterated this week by Ukrainian presidential adviser and adviser to the head of the presidential office, Mykhailo Podolyak. “Ukraine strictly adheres to the commitment not to use its partners’ weapons to attack Russian territory,” he said.
Instead, Ukraine is pushing ahead with building a weapons industry that will deliver everything from 155mm artillery shells to longer-range drones and, it appears, a new long-range missile.
Senior Ukrainian officials have dropped hints about the development of a new cruise missile. Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Posted last week a video of the alleged missile with the caption: “The President of Ukraine’s missile program in action.” The tests are successful, the deployment effective.”
Later he spoke of a three-year development program, “to provide a distance of thousands of kilometers, this is the work of large teams, powerful work. Now we can say that we have a result.”
Zelensky himself left a cryptic message congratulating the Ministry of Strategic Industry: “Successful use of our long-range weapons: the target was hit at a distance of 700 kilometers!”
And the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications reiterated that point on Friday, saying on Telegram: “Having launched a large-scale aggression, the Russians counted on their impunity: that the fighting would be limited to Ukraine and they would be secure in their rear would feel.”
“Increasing the range destroys the Russian illusion of security and increases the cost of aggression for the enemy,” it said.
This is clearly an evolving part of Ukraine’s war strategy. Podolyak said: “The war is increasingly spreading into Russian territory and cannot be stopped.” This is a consequence of the lost front component (Russia, despite all the propaganda myths, has long been fighting only in numbers and only in defense) and the lack of realistic … systems in the regions (including air defense).”
At the center of this power projection is a series of Ukrainian drones – in the air and at sea. The latest versions have longer range and larger payloads than previous models, thanks to what Ukrainians call a global dragnet for drone technology and contracts with several domestic manufacturers.
The attack on the Pskov air base is the result of this work, although the manner in which it was carried out remains a mystery. Ukraine’s defense intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said the attack was launched from inside Russia, but declined to say what type of drones were used and how many.
This could be Budonov’s flair for gamesmanship – with the intention of sowing confusion and distrust in Russia.
It is possible that the drones were launched from Ukrainian territory, but accurate targeting at a distance of more than 700 kilometers would require a significant change in navigation capabilities.
A Russian blogger complained that the attack in Pskov indicated that Russian air defenses had not adapted to counter repeated Ukrainian drone attacks.
The damage caused will not break the back of the Russian Air Force, but it has become a serious nuisance. On August 22, at least one Tu-22M strategic bomber was set on fire at the Soltsy-2 air base in northern Russia; Then came the Pskov attack.
Ukraine has also invested heavily in the development of maritime drones. The most recently used explosives carry an explosive payload of up to 400 kilograms, can puncture a large ship and can travel hundreds of kilometers.
In early August, a ship struck the Russian gas and chemical tanker SIG near the Kerch Strait, disabling it but not sinking it. Another attack hit a Russian naval ship in the port of Novosibirsk.
The naval drones used against the Russian navy and merchant shipping in the Black Sea boost morale and complicate Russian calculations. Some Russian warships in the Black Sea have mounted machine guns on their decks to counter the difficult-to-defend weapons.
These attacks are forcing Russia to spend time developing countermeasures: a recent example is the sinking of barges near the Kerch Bridge to Crimea to prevent it from being hit by naval drones again after attacks in July and August.
Mick Ryan, author of the Futura Doctrina blog and former Australian Defense Force general, writes: “With the likelihood of developing their own conventional fleet to fight the Russians almost unlikely, the Ukrainians have developed unmanned capabilities.” Although they are supposedly on it Designed to sink or damage Russian surface warships, they are also intended to have the psychological effect of deterring Russian ships from setting sail.”
Likewise, Russian authorities must use air defense systems that could be deployed in Ukraine for the Moscow region and infrastructure such as air bases, which have become a frequent target of Ukrainian attacks. Open source reports suggest that there are at least several Pantsir-2 air defense batteries near Moscow.
The Institute for the Study of War notes that “Russian forces may have focused their air defenses on covering Moscow and somehow missed the unusually large number of Ukrainian drones that reportedly hit Pskov airfield.”
Ukrainians are also more focused on the deterioration of Russian transport links, air defense and bases in annexed Crimea. Last month, they carried out a missile attack against one of Russia’s modern S-400 air defense systems on the Crimean coast and then carried out a commando attack.
Budanov said afterwards: “We have the opportunity to hit any part of the temporarily occupied territories.” [Crimea] from now on. We can reach the enemy absolutely anywhere.”
Longer range attacks are an extension of the strategy successfully used since last year to attack Russian logistics centers, command centers and ammunition/or fuel depots far behind the front. Longer-range Western systems such as HIMARS and more recently Storm Shadows, which have been critical to this effort with a range of 250 km, in Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.
Such weapons make Russian forces aware that they are vulnerable far from the front. A high-ranking Russian general was killed in an attack on a Russian command center in occupied Berdyansk in July; Another attack in January destroyed a barracks in Donetsk, killing scores of people.
The use of drones and even the development of new missiles will not determine the course of the war. The Ukrainians’ success or failure will depend on the amount of territory recovered from the Russian occupation and the ability to deter further aggression. This counteroffensive is making marginal progress at best.
But long-range attack missions have their value. Mick Ryan says such operations “will only increase in importance and visibility.” This is a way to keep fighting when ground maneuvers become difficult in the wet, cold season. And it’s a way to demonstrate progress in the war to Ukraine’s supporters at a time when other operations are slowing.”
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Inhat says Russia should expect more.
“You can see the hysteria in the Russian public and in Russian propaganda channels. They really don’t like what’s happening. “But what did they want?” he said on Friday.
Mykhailo Podolyak says The long-term goal is to start a major war against Russia. “As long as Putin remains president, the war will continue. “Dragging Russia ever deeper into the abyss of chaos.”