(CNN) – China has built the world’s largest naval fleet with more than 340 warships and until recently was considered a green-water navy, operating primarily near the country’s coasts.
However, China’s construction of naval vessels reveals deep-sea ambitions. In recent years, it has rolled out large guided-missile destroyers, amphibious assault ships and aircraft carriers that can operate on the open sea and exert their power thousands of kilometers from Beijing.
To maintain global reach, the People’s Liberation Army Navy needs places where these high-water vessels can refuel and replenish supplies far from home.
According to a new analysis by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington-based think tank, Beijing’s growing pressure to gain access to ports also includes aid in building a naval base in Cambodia and exploring other possible locations for military posts as far away as Africa’s Atlantic coast .
Add to that the People’s Liberation Army (EPL) facilities in countries like Argentina, FDD reports, and Cuba, which can do everything from monitoring space to tracking satellites to spying on Western countries’ communications.
Together, experts say, these efforts are aimed at increasing the military reach of China, which currently has only one operational foreign naval base in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa.
China claims the base in Djibouti supports its anti-piracy and humanitarian missions in Africa and West Asia.
Chinese officials have repeatedly insisted that Beijing does not seek “expansion or spheres of influence” abroad and rejected various claims that it is cooperating with other nations to establish foreign bases on its territory.
However, the FDD has gathered information from open sources that supports its conclusion that China is building more naval outposts, including satellite images showing the remarkable development of the Ream naval base, which lies on a short peninsula off Cambodia’s western coast and extends into the Gulf of Thailand.
“The expansion of the People’s Liberation Army’s global presence and its corresponding ability to conduct a broader range of missions, including limited warfare, poses significant risks to the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific and other operational scenarios,” the report said.
And the People’s Liberation Army isn’t slowing down, said the report’s author, Craig Singleton, a senior researcher at the FDD.
“The question is when — not if — China will secure its next military outpost abroad,” he said.
CNN has reached out to the Chinese Defense Ministry and the Chinese Foreign Ministry for comment.
Cambodian naval personnel are seen on ships docked at a jetty at Ream naval base in Preah Sihanouk province on July 26, 2019, during a government-organized media tour.
(Source: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP/Getty Images)
The base in Djibouti
Last year, Chinese and Cambodian officials jointly led the groundbreaking ceremony for the Chinese-funded modernization of the Ream naval base, and Beijing’s envoy to the country praised the military cooperation as part of the “strong connection” between the two countries.
At the time, Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Banh denied claims it would be converted into a Chinese military outpost, stressing during the ceremony that the project was in line with Cambodia’s constitution, which bans foreign military bases on its territory.
Chinese officials described the base as an “aid project” to strengthen Cambodia’s navy and described claims to the contrary as “exaggerations” with “ulterior motives.”
FDD’s Singleton says his analysis of satellite images shows the pier being built at the Ream base is similar in dimensions to China’s overseas military base in Djibouti.
The Djibouti dock has the capacity to accommodate Chinese deep-sea vessels, and these similarities suggest that Ream could also accommodate these types of vessels.
Ream’s overall base is also broader, and Singleton and others wonder whether it could be a model for China’s future military ambitions abroad, despite official denials of that goal.
“In 2016, Chinese and Djiboutian officials also denied reports that China intended to establish a military base in the Horn of Africa,” said FDD’s Singleton.
“But less than a year later, the PLA used ships from its South Sea Fleet to officially open its base in Djibouti, after which the PLA conducted live fire exercises for six weeks,” he said.
This is not the only example of China saying one thing and doing another in its military operations.
Chinese structures and buildings on the artificial island of Mischief Reef in the Spratlys archipelago in the South China Sea, Sunday, March 20, 2022.
(Source: Aaron Favila/AP)
In 2015, Chinese leader Xi Jinping promised that Beijing would not militarize the artificial islands it is building in the disputed South China Sea.
However, Beijing is now using military facilities on these islands to strengthen its territorial claims in the region.
Where could China establish itself more strongly?
China has long condemned the U.S. network of about 750 foreign military facilities, accusing Washington of undermining global security and using these outposts to interfere in other countries’ affairs.
But Beijing has become more assertive in its own region, using the military to assert its claims in the South China Sea and intimidate Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that China’s ruling Communist Party has vowed to take over. if necessary by force.
As its rivalry with the United States intensifies, experts say Beijing is increasingly focused on finding ways to break through what it sees as the physical “encirclement” by the United States and its allies, while maintaining its military might and its vision of global security to project abroad.
A 2019 defense document stressed the need for the PLA to protect its “interests abroad,” including through “developing logistics facilities abroad,” language similar to the description of the base in Djibouti.
China’s growing global influence and rapid expansion of its maritime trade activities over the past decade have led to a more aggressive approach to maritime security, experts say.
Xi’s broad Belt and Road infrastructure financing initiative has been a springboard for Chinese companies to acquire stakes in dozens of ports around the world, which experts say also provide logistical support and refueling for China’s navy and future armed forces could host bases.
A recent study by AidData, a research lab at the University of William & Mary in Virginia, looked at where Beijing could financially build new naval bases, focusing on ports and infrastructure projects that have already received large sums of money from China between 2000 and 2021 .
“Although our data is neither exhaustive nor definitive, we suggest a list of port locations – in which China has invested significant resources and cultivated relationships with local elites – that could be favorable for future naval bases,” explains AidData.
The first on the list is Hambantota (Sri Lanka), followed by Bata (Equatorial Guinea), Gwadar (Pakistan), Kribi (Cameroon), Ream (Cambodia), Vanuatu (South Pacific), Nacala (Mozambique) and Nouakchott (Mauritania). .
Sri Lanka’s commercial port of Hambantota has long been considered a prime candidate for a Chinese naval base.
Beijing took control of the port in 2017 when a Chinese state-owned company signed a 99-year lease with Colombo to operate the facility after Sri Lanka failed to repay Chinese loans to build the facility.
“Naval cooperation was further cemented in 2018 when China donated a Type 053 frigate to the Sri Lanka Navy instead of selling it to foreign militaries,” AidData said.
The fact that Equatorial Guinea is number two on the list should come as no surprise. American military leaders have warned more than once in the past year that Beijing was moving in this direction.
Army Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, commander of U.S. Africa Command, stated at a hearing in the U.S. House of Representatives in March 2022 that China is actively seeking a military naval base on the west coast of Africa that could threaten the national security of the United States States.
“I think what concerns me most is this military base on the Atlantic coast, and the biggest strength right now is in Equatorial Guinea,” Townsend explained.
But U.S. commitment to Equatorial Guinea, ruled by one of the world’s longest-serving autocrats, may have pushed Bata into the background for Beijing, according to the FDD’s Singleton, who says there are signs China is focusing on nearby instead Gabon could concentrate.
“Gabon has this year upgraded its bilateral relationship with China from a ‘comprehensive cooperative partnership’ to a ‘comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership’ in which the two governments will almost certainly deepen their security and military cooperation,” Singleton said.
After visiting Beijing in April to seal improved relations, Gabonese President Ali Bongo Ondimba, whose family has ruled the country for 56 years, told Chinese state news service Xinhua that “the two countries have a high level of consensus in maintaining the global relations.” Peace and security as well as in resolving conflicts.”
This week’s coup in Gabon, in which a military officer placed the president under house arrest, brings new uncertainty to China-Gabon relations.
But regardless of the exact details of a Beijing plan to increase military access to West Africa, Singleton said one thing is clear: “China aims to one day develop the ability to deploy its forces throughout the Western Hemisphere.”
The complexity of the road
However, China’s path to developing permanent bases abroad, if that is its goal, is not easy.
Many countries that host U.S. bases have defense contracts with the superpower, but China has long had a policy of having no formal allies, raising questions about the incentives countries would have to host Beijing bases on their territory.
Although China has significant economic influence that can help in this regard, governments agreeing to host a Chinese military base could jeopardize their relations with the United States and its many, given the growing rivalry and tension between the two powers endanger allies.
And operating bases abroad exposes Beijing to other security risks, such as involvement in internal conflicts in host countries.
For example, Chinese citizens in Pakistan have been targeted by insurgents. Recently, on August 13, militants attacked vehicles carrying Chinese engineers in Gwadar, one of the places where experts say China may be considering building military port facilities.
However, researchers at the Beijing Naval Research Academy argued in a 2014 report that China’s naval power should be extended to the Indian Ocean “to support the expansion of China’s national interests.”
This photo taken on August 1, 2017 shows Chinese People’s Liberation Army personnel at the opening ceremony of China’s new military base in Djibouti.
(Source: AFP/Getty Images)
Although the public debate over foreign military bases in China has gained momentum in recent years, there are still “more important military priorities” for the People’s Liberation Army, said Isaac Kardon, senior researcher for China studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank in Washington.
“Chinese leaders see the greatest threats in the East Asian maritime zone – Taiwan and the South and East China Seas – and are unlikely to devote significant resources or leadership attention to remote outposts that serve only limited strategic purposes,” he claimed.
Kardon said China will likely continue to favor “low-end dual-use options” linked to its overseas trade infrastructure, such as ports.
“However, there is a growing case for a few more military bases to support a stronger higher-level presence,” Kardon said, adding that China will be “opportunistic to do deals if it can get them.”
More than bases
Although most of the attention in the PLA’s overseas ambitions is focused on naval facilities, FDD said it is also exploring interception and communications facilities where other powers such as the United States are believed to operate in key strategic locations.
Some sources told CNN this year that China has been spying on the United States from its facilities in Cuba for years. A source familiar with the intelligence agency said Beijing also had an agreement in principle to build a new spy facility on the island that could allow the Chinese to spy on electronic communications throughout the southeastern United States.
FDD’s Singleton says the effort in Cuba shows the reach the EPL already has.
“China’s deepening military and intelligence ties with Cuba reinforce that the PLA does not need to establish regional military supremacy in Asia as a prerequisite for its global presence,” he said.
Singleton also points to China’s space ground station in Argentina’s desert region of Patagonia, which Argentina said both sides agreed was for “exclusively civilian use.”
The facility is managed by China’s General Satellite Launch and Tracking Control Organization, which is affiliated with the People’s Liberation Army’s Strategic Support Force, according to government documents.
The Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) points out why this is worrying for US military planners.
“Ground stations (…) help keep track of tens of thousands of satellites and other objects in Earth orbit, a capability known as Space Situational Awareness (SSA) that is critical to fighting wars in information-rich battlefields and win.” CSIS states in a 2022 report.
The view from Washington
In Washington, some members of Congress are taking note and calling on the Defense Department not to hesitate to take action to counter the growing presence of the People’s Liberation Army, whether by persuading potential Chinese base sites to turn to the United States or by reinforcing them the US military presence in areas where China is located.
“The Chinese Communist Party will continue its strategic expansion of military bases around the world with access to key shipping routes, maritime staging points and oil and gas import routes,” Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., said in an email to CNN.
“The Department of Defense must increase its engagement with Beijing’s target countries to offer those countries the United States as a stronger economic and security partner,” he said.
Wittman’s colleague, Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Massachusetts, told CNN that Washington should become more involved in countries where Beijing is trying to invade because it offers what China cannot.
“Our first response should be to redouble diplomacy because the United States provides freedom, security and economic opportunity where China wants control,” Moulton said.
“China’s goal is global dominance through authoritarian control. And authoritarianism is what they export to other countries and regions by expanding their military presence.”
This opinion is shared in the Pentagon.
“What is particularly concerning about (China’s) activities is the lack of transparency and clarity regarding the terms it negotiates with host countries and the intended purposes of these facilities,” a Defense Department spokesperson told CNN. USA, Lieutenant Colonel Martin Meiners.
“The United States wants to ensure that Indo-Pacific nations can make decisions about their economic and security futures that serve their best interests,” he added.
CNN’s Mengchen Zhang and Hayley Britzky contributed to this report.