FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
CERNOBBIO – News: “At the beginning of next year, the Saudis could recognize Israel.” A reassurance: “If Trump wins the elections, the USA will continue to support Ukraine.” Finally, a warning: “With Trump, NATO would be even stronger, but the European countries must spend more to contribute to the common defense.” Lindsey Graham, 68, is one of America’s most influential senators. He worked with John McCain for a long time in Congress. He then endorsed Trump, with whom he says he “spent a lot of time.” The senator from South Carolina speaks about this to Corriere on the sidelines of “Teha”, the forum in Cernobbio organized by the European House Ambrosetti.
Let’s start with the news. Can you confirm the rumors of a comprehensive agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia?
“We have a good chance of reaching an agreement at the beginning of 2024. The Saudis are demanding that we commit to common defense, nuclear technology for civilian use, and a range of economic pacts. These are all things we can do. And Biden can count on the Senate’s broad consensus: there are 67 yes votes across party lines (out of 100, editor’s note). In return, Saudi Arabia will recognize Israel. A historic turning point that will change the Middle East forever.
And the Palestinians?
“You also have to participate in the agreement.”
How? The solution of coexistence between “two states”, Palestine and Israel, does not seem so practical…
“Yes, it’s complicated. But the Saudis will guarantee many other Palestinian demands. It’s still a matter of negotiation.”
The CIA accuses Saudi Prince Mohammed Bin Salman of instigating the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
“You see, I was also very critical back then. But today’s challenge is to persuade Saudi Arabia to change. I’ve been there several times in the last few months. You are making progress. Women can drive and leave the house without being accompanied by a man. It is a path that must be encouraged…».
A road paved with petrodollars, right?
“Saudi Arabia is putting $1 trillion in investments on the table. They can only truly change the country and the Middle East with the help of the West and not just the Americans. Trump understood that.”
So here we are with Trump. Will he win the November 2024 elections?
“I look at the polls. I think it will be a very close race. Really. With a 50% distribution of options.
But Trump risks prison time for trying to overturn the election results.
“It is unlikely that the trials will take place before the election, and in any case the majority of Republicans believe these investigations are politically motivated.”
Do you believe that too?
“Well, the judges here are liberals…”
On January 6, 2021, you were in Congress when the Trumpians attacked him…
“And whoever did it should go to prison. There is no doubt about that. But Trump had no direct role.”
We’ll see how the trials end. Let’s imagine Trump back in the Oval Office. Will he cut military aid to Ukraine?
“I do not believe that. The best way to predict what Trump will do is to look at what he did when he was in the White House. I remember once he wanted to withdraw our military from Afghanistan. I, along with others, committed to changing his mind by telling him: If we leave there, threats to our national security will increase. Trump was convinced. Then Biden decided to withdraw, leaving behind a landscape of devastation. Well, if we let Ukraine down, we would be making Biden’s mistake in the dice.”
However, the Republican Party is divided…
“That’s right, Europe is too. But the majority of conservatives are in favor of continuing and supporting Ukraine until victory. In the Senate, for example, we can say that around 70% of Republicans are on this line.”
However, Biden is apparently also examining negotiation options without facilitating arms deliveries. What do you think?
“There is one strong point on which I think there is broad consensus: we cannot reach an agreement that rewards Putin.” We cannot allow him to get away with his army and commit massacres, rape and looting in Ukraine. If we give up now, Putin will be stronger than ever and we have set the stage for further aggression. I would add: If we don’t connect Ukraine’s aggression with what can happen in Taiwan (undermined by China, editor’s note), we will miss a lot of the global scenario.”
The Pentagon seems rather skeptical about the possibility of the Ukrainians retaking all of the occupied territories, especially Crimea…
“However, I believe that the Ukrainian army will make significant progress within a year. As for Crimea, there is no doubt: it is an integral part of Ukraine.”
Can it be returned to Kiev using a political-diplomatic formula?
«I’m open to creative formulas. We can discuss it. As long as they don’t represent a washout. I repeat: no prize, no gift to Putin.”