The recently released Netflix documentary Swamp Kings is an interesting and relevant starting point for the Misery Index in 2023.
Although the series has been criticized by critics for leaving out most of the bad off-the-field things that happened in Florida under Urban Meyer, it is a satisfying piece of nostalgia for Gators fans because it reminds them what the program is about is capable when it fires on all cylinders. The program’s culture may have been one of the darkest and most mendacious in college football history, but winning two national championships in three years has far more resonance in memory than the arrests and other bad behavior that went on underneath minimized by the Meyer regime.
What would Florida fans give to return to those days? Would they abandon their boats? Their houses? Their holidays? Family members who don’t like her? Maybe family members who like them.
The boundaries of this desperation are expanding week by week.
After an offseason hype about internal improvements and an uptick in recruiting, the Gators went to No. 14 Utah on Thursday night and showed their fans that they are still a bad football team that can’t even come close to generating the buzz of this team. Days of the Swamp Kings.
Florida’s 24-11 loss was alarming in many ways, but especially on offense, where the Gators went 1-for-13 in the third and never came close at any point in the game despite facing a Utah team struggling with injuries had struggled, held to 270 yards.
In college football, generally by the second year you know what you want from a coach. There are exceptions, but by the second year the culture should prevail and the improvement should be noticeable.
It’s only one game, but the start of Billy Napier’s second year was so unimpressive that his $31.9 million buyout after a 6-7 debut season is now the talk of Gator country . But at some point is it the coach or the school?
Will Muschamp didn’t work out. Jim McElwain didn’t work. Dan Mullen didn’t work. And now there are questions about whether Napier will work.
Swamp Kings may have reminded Florida fans what was possible under very specific circumstances and as one of the greatest coaches in college football history, but the list of hires that followed Meyer shows what’s real: It is not an easy place to win.
And that’s why Florida tops the Week 1 Misery Index, a weekly measurement that shows which fan bases are most worried about the state of their favorite show.
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Four more in misery
Boston College
They were a pandemic sensation, somehow getting through the entire 2020 season with just one case of COVID-19. At the time, it seemed nearly impossible and commendable, strange as it may seem now. But it could also explain why the Eagles went 6-5 beyond their expectations in Jeff Hafley’s first season as head coach, including a strong 5-5 record in the ACC.
Looking back, many of the sporting anomalies of 2020 can certainly be explained in one way or another when looking through the COVID prism. It’s possible Boston College won a few extra games because it had healthy players, while most football teams struggled week after week to get their full roster on the field, let alone get their bearings in practice.
Either way, the Eagles have since fallen off a cliff. They went 4-12 in the ACC in 2021 and 2022, won just three games last season and opened 2023 with a dreadful 27-24 overtime loss to a Northern Illinois team that also went 3-9 last year was inferior.
Hafley, the 44-year-old former Ohio State offensive coordinator with an NFL background, came out of the pandemic looking like a future star. Now he looks like a man struggling to keep his career going in an incredibly difficult job.
Boise State
Some Broncos fans were ready to give up on Andy Avalos last season after a 2-2 start that included a really bad loss at Texas-El Paso. But somehow Boise State pulled itself together in Mountain West play, got to the conference championship game and had a decent 10-4 season.
But here’s the problem with Boise State. The days of college football being the ultimate disruptor are probably over. The sport is so different today than it was 10 years ago. There is certainly a path for future Boise State teams to get into the expanded College Football Playoff that will begin next season, but the Boise brand was built on reaching beyond its league affiliation and aligning itself with the major conference teams it plays against she would play anywhere, be able to measure and at any time.
The Broncos’ 56-19 loss to Washington flies in the face of that tradition. Boise State allowed too many big plays, was minus-2 in the turnover department and gave up 568 total yards because it couldn’t defend Washington’s passing game.
That’s nothing to be ashamed of because Washington is very good and has an elite quarterback in Michael Penix. But when the entire narrative around your program is based on being successful in games like this, a 37-point loss is as disheartening a start to the season as they could have imagined.
Purdue
A new coach’s first year, let alone their first game, shouldn’t mean much in a sane world. But this is the decidedly crazy world of college football, so 37-year-old Ryan Walters’ early impressions are subject to excessive scrutiny – including the impression Purdue made in a 39-35 loss to Fresno State.
Walters began his career as a secondary coach, then defensive coordinator for Missouri and Purdue. Hiring him was essentially Purdue’s way of slowing down after the offensive era led by Jeff Brohm, who fled to Louisville. But it’s difficult to hire a defensive-minded guy when the defense isn’t good. And Purdue’s was really bad on Saturday, giving up 371 passing yards on 17 attempts and allowing 11 third-down conversions. With the game on the line late, Purdue couldn’t stop Fresno from driving 79 yards and scoring with a 22-yard touchdown pass with just under a minute left.
Walters is a long-term, positive bet for Purdue. But if the defense isn’t better, he’ll come under pressure relatively quickly in his first year.
Baylor
It’s impossible not to like Bears coach Dave Aranda. He is highly intelligent, stylish, reserved and authentic. He is not an attention seeker. He wants to develop players, but also people. If there was a poll of college football coaches most likely to quote Kirkegaard, no one but Aranda would get a vote. However, you can’t lose to Texas State. And Baylor lost its opener to Texas State 42-31 while somehow being dominated by an in-state program with a 34-year head coach in GJ Kinne.
Aranda gave Baylor fans a big benefit of the doubt by winning the Big 12 and the Sugar Bowl in 2021, but last year’s 6-7 record was a disappointment considering the Bears were picked again to win the conference. Some of those losses were brutally close, and you can argue that with a bit of luck it would have been a pretty good season.
But once you lose to Texas State, that all goes out the window. Baylor’s lack of production appears to be a trend, and some important questions will need to be answered in the coming weeks.
Miserable, but not miserable enough
Arizona State
Self-imposing a postseason suspension for NCAA violations in this environment was a puzzling move by the Sun Devils administration, especially when the NCAA appears no longer interested in issuing this type of punishment. But perhaps Arizona State exaggerated when it took action for violations under the Herm Edwards regime because Edwards completely disrupted first-year coach Kenny Dillingham’s program. If the Sun Devils are indeed as incapable of pulling out a 24-21 win over Southern Utah as they looked, playing in a bowl game this year would be the least of their worries.
Nebraska
It’s a new era in Lincoln under Matt Rhule, but the horror show of late-game collapses looms like an unbreakable curse. The Huskers did some things well against Minnesota, but fell 13-10 on the first after an Anthony Grant fumble and a Jeff Sims interception on their final two drives. Minnesota took advantage of both, scoring a touchdown with 2:32 left to tie the game and then kicking a 47-yard field goal at the buzzer to win. After the disastrous Scott Frost era, one should still be confident that Rhule can turn things around, but Week 1 was pretty much a repeat of the way Frost lost 22 games by one point in his five seasons.
Michigan
The three-game suspension handed to Jim Harbaugh for recruiting violations during the COVID dead period is absolutely meaningless in the grand scheme of things. As a No. 2 seed, Michigan will do just fine against this series of overpowering opponents, and by the end of the month we’ll all have forgotten what happened. But Michigan’s offensive players came into action for the first time and paid tribute to the game by holding up four fingers to represent the number Harbaugh wore as a player. Hey guys, he didn’t die. He violated NCAA rules and is serving a relatively meaningless sentence. Everything will be fine.
State of Arkansas
The proud tradition of a program that won or played for a Sun Belt title in six of eight seasons between 2011 and 2018 is now a distant memory. And the person to blame is Butch Jones, whose record is 5-20 after a 73-0 loss at Oklahoma. To be clear, no one at any point expected the Red Wolves to win this game. But to be beaten so badly and not score any points despite only gaining 208 yards shows that the program is in terrible shape. That’s largely what you’d expect from a team that went 1-7 in the conference each of the last two seasons. Jones, who transferred to Arkansas State after being fired from Tennessee, could be at the bottom of the list as head coach.
marine
Since there was no Misery Index for Week 0, we must acknowledge Navy’s 42-3 loss to Notre Dame in last week’s opener. The Midshipmen were playing their first game without Ken Niumatalolo as head coach since 2008, and things obviously didn’t go well. That’s partly because Notre Dame is a very good team, but also because it’s becoming increasingly difficult to survive as a service academy like it once did. Navy can’t rely on the transfer portal, it doesn’t have the booster base to be a name, image and likeness player, and the relatively new cut-blocking rules make it harder to triple-option. First-year coach Brian Newberry clearly has a lot of work to do.
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