On August 22, Rosa Icela Rodríguez, head of the Secretariat for Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC), presented the figures from the Victims of Common Law Crimes report. He highlighted that the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador achieved a 19.9% decrease in intentional homicides compared to July 2018, when the historic high of 3,074 cases was recorded in a month. However, Rodríguez did not mention that a total of 154,084 people have been murdered in the current six-year term that ends in November 2024, a number that already exceeds that of all previous six-year terms, including that of Felipe Calderón in the fight against drug trafficking that began in late 2006. .
The government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has insisted in recent months that the number of killings is declining and showing a clear downward trend. The latest official data confirms the government’s argument, but observing the progression of violence in the country over more than two decades, one can see that the starting point of this administration, which began in 2018, is the highest in recent history Mexico. The president admitted as much in June when he accused previous administrations of a “bad legacy” on security.
“I believe that the time has already passed for the federal government to justify itself and hold previous governments responsible for their public security results, especially murders,” says Lilian Chapa Koloffon, a public security policy specialist with experience in crime investigation and Prevention. “The problem is that we are not seeing that the government’s actions have had an impact in stopping the rise in murders and we are already in the final stages of this government.”
In 2019, Chapa Koloffon was a consultant for the design of the National Police and Citizen Justice Model in the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System, the decentralized body of the SSPC that records these crimes and is responsible for publishing the reports on a monthly basis. Intentional homicides stand out, but there are also femicides, which total 4,549 over the six-year period, as well as deaths and disappearances that have yet to be resolved.
“Anyone who speaks about these issues must recognize, including the federal government itself and prosecutors, that the sources used to measure total homicides have many limitations and many are not included in the records,” explains Chapa Koloffon. “I am not saying that every disappearance should be counted as a homicide, but without a doubt there is a group in this universe of missing people who have of course already been victims of homicide and are not counted.”
In 2022, the official number of intentional homicides in Mexico was 30,969. In seven months of 2023, 17,589 people were murdered. Secretary Rosa Icela Rodríguez assures that the latest number of 2,462 victims in July is the lowest for that month in the last five years, referring to the 3,074 registered in July 2018. However, Lilian Chapa Koloffon does not consider this a sign of May’s improvement. “It’s good in a way that there hasn’t been a month with a murder rate as high as July 2018, but I think it’s difficult to claim that we are in a less violent country.”
In March 2019, the National Guard (GN) was created, a civilian security institution that replaced the federal police and was part of President López Obrador’s strategy to combat organized crime in Mexico. However, in April this year, the Supreme Court invalidated the reform that transferred operational and administrative control of this organization to the army.
For specialist Chapa Koloffon, this lack of definition has implications for the way violence is treated in the country. “We have the former federal police, which, although called the National Guard, must fulfill the function of the police of the federal order, which is currently in a lack of definition that greatly weakens it, that is why it exists.” In all the years since his Founding it was a great paralysis. Because it is an institution where it is not clear whether it is the police or the military.”
One of the states most affected by violence is Guanajuato, which has topped the list of states with the most murders since 2018. In 2023 alone, the Executive Secretariat has counted 1,930 victims of intentional homicide. In the Bajío of Guanajuato, an average of 108 people are murdered every day. This list of the most violent states is followed by the state of Mexico, the most populous in the country with almost 17 million inhabitants. In seven months of 2023, 1,573 murders were recorded. In this state, on August 7, the lifeless body of 41-year-old businessman Íñigo Arenas Sainz, who had disappeared two days earlier, was found. The public prosecutor’s office is investigating murder.
The entities that follow on the list are Baja California, followed by Jalisco, Chihuahua, Michoacán, Guerrero, Sonora, Morelos and Nuevo León. As of July 2023, 67% of the country’s murders were concentrated in these ten units.
Thirteen months after the end of the López Obrador government, the security legacy he leaves behind is complex. “Whoever wins the presidency of this country will preserve a Mexico in one of its greatest crises of intentional killing and also in one of its greatest crises of institutional strength in security and criminal justice,” says the security expert.
“The federal government must once again face its responsibility to take legal action against organized crime, which it abandoned during its time in government. Currently the Federation is completely wiped out and it is a great irresponsibility that is costing many lives,” concludes Lilian Chapa Koloffon.
The report of the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System is available on its website on the 20th of each month and coincides with its presentation on Tuesday at President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s morning conference.
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