A China announced Monday that its supreme leader, Xi Jinpingshould miss the peak of the Group of 20 In New Delhi this weekend, in an act of disrespect towards Indiathe event’s host country, raising questions about Xi’s profile as a global statesman.
China will send its Prime Minister Li Qiang to the meeting, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a news conference. Mao did not respond to questions about Xi and refused to explain the reason for the decision, but the move is undoubtedly unusual. Since coming to power in 2012, Xi has never missed a G20 summit, bringing together leaders from 19 countries and the European Union.
The announcement comes amid growing tensions between China and several G20 members notably US and India due to the continued support of Beijing The Russia (in case of Washington) and the increasingly aggressive Chinese territorial claims in Asia (in the case of New Delhi).
President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President of China Xi Jinping, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi and President of South Africa Cyril Ramaphosa speak during the “Friends of BRICS Leaders” dialogue indoors as part of the 15. BRICS summit on August 24, 2023 in Johannesburg, South Africa. Photo: YESHIEL PANCHIA / EFE
Given Beijing’s political opacity and reticence, it is difficult to figure out why Xi appears to have decided not to attend the summit. Analysts say this may reflect Xi’s preference for groups where China is more dominant, such as the recently concluded BRICS summit, which brings together emerging economies Johannesburg. Since Xi will miss the opportunity to meet with President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the G20 summit if he does not attend, the move could mean the Chinese leader intends to ease tensions with the US on his own terms.
The G20 meeting also comes as China’s economy faces one of its most difficult periods in years due to a worsening housing crisis that could become one of the biggest challenges for Xi’s government. The Chinese leader’s absence could be an indication that he needs to be in Beijing to resolve pressing economic issues.
Xi’s tight control over his government means that other countries’ leaders will be unsure whether Li has the authority to implement decisions made at the summit.
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“The fact that there is such speculation with every ‘no show’ shows not only the uncertainty that opacity creates, but also the fact that, given the centralization of his authority, everything seems to depend on Xi,” said Ian Chong, associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore.
“When external leadership depends so much on a single person, and the same applies domestically, the situation becomes quite unstable, no matter how powerful that person is,” he added.
With a meeting in New Delhi apparently out of the question, Biden’s next opportunity to meet Xi could be at the AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation Forum summit in San Francisco in November. However, there is no guarantee that Xi will attend this meeting, another indication that China is trying hard to win him over.
In a post published on its WeChat account on Monday, China’s Ministry of State Security said the US needed to “show sufficient sincerity” to justify Xi’s appearance in San Francisco.
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, called the WeChat post extremely unusual. The ministry, he said, does not have the “authority” to interfere in ChinaUS relations in this way because it is “not responsible for diplomacy.”
Police stand on a street in front of the “Bharat Mandapam”, the main venue of the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, on September 3, 2023. Photo: Altaf Hussain / Portal
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Still, the post reflected China’s deep skepticism about U.S. intentions after a series of highlevel talks between U.S. and Chinese officials in Beijing over the past three months. The Chinese government says Washington cannot claim it wants to stabilize relations if it continues to antagonize China by expanding trade restrictions, strengthening security alliances with Asian partners and offering support to Taiwan, the selfruled island claimed by Beijing.
In India, Xi’s absence from the G20 summit will be widely seen as a slight to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who hopes the event will burnish his own credentials as a global leader.
Tensions have increased between Beijing and New Delhi, which has approached the West through a group called the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes the United States, Australia and Japan.
China and India also disagree about their common border. The dispute erupted last week when China’s Ministry of Natural Resources released a map declaring Chinese jurisdiction over the entire northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin region, a highland. High altitude plateau claimed by both countries. The Chinese Communist Party’s nationalist newspaper Global Times published a post about the map on the social network X, formerly known as Twitter.
India said it had responded with a strong protest against China. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar called the Chinese map “absurd” and criticized the Chinese government for what he called Beijing’s “old habit” of issuing maps renaming disputed areas to enforce its territorial claims. Other countries, including Malaysia and the Philippines, have voiced similar complaints. (China called the map routine and urged countries “not to draw exaggerated conclusions on the issue.”)
“These maps are essentially political manifestos,” said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “Some Chinese media outlets are choosing to amplify this and wouldn’t do so without official permission.”
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A G20 summit without Xi might not be a bad thing for Modi, some Indian analysts said. The prime minister has faced criticism in the past from opposition parties who accused him of trying to foster ties with Xi, but that failed after an escalation in border tensions.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa on July 27, 2018. Photo: Mike Hutchings / Portal
“Xi’s arrival would have meant a normalization of relations without making serious efforts to resolve the border crisis,” said Professor Brahma Chellaney, who teaches strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi.
The disagreement over the map raises questions about what progress, if any, was made earlier this month when Xi and Modi met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit. The countries said they had discussed the border dispute.
That summit was seen as a major victory for Xi as the group, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, decided to invite another six new members after Beijing pushed hard for expansion.
In recent months, Xi has only traveled to countries where he is guaranteed a reception, such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and most recently South Africa. / TRANSLATION BY GUILHERME RUSSO