Claudia Sheinbaum was always the successor of the movement. Marcelo Ebrard looked for and found incidents that legitimized an exit and blew it up before it led to a defeat that was clearly predicted in all previous polls. But Sheinbaum’s triumph lies not in the uprising’s shortcomings but in its logistical problems. Claudia is Obrador’s presidential candidate because from day one she was the favorite of the majority of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s supporters and the circle around him. Just look at the voting polls exclusively among his supporters, which showed him more than twenty points ahead of his rival.
The question is different. Did Marcelo Ebrard have the opportunity to become the standard-bearer of a political force that never considered him one of its own? The answer is yes. López Obrador himself expressed this months ago when he spoke about the dilemma of Lázaro Cárdenas, when the general had to choose not his favorite or the political and social project that was closest to him, but the one that suited the governability of the country . Ebrard would have been Morena’s candidate if Obradorism’s popularity had declined; That is, if victory had required moving to the middle, or if the economy had been paralyzed by a miserable disagreement with private initiative. In this case, Morena would have needed a candidate with a moderate label who would be able to allay fears and attract centrist votes. But none of these things happened. Government approval for the fourth quarter is high and the economy is growing. The President assumes that his movement is able to replicate power with the card that best represents it, and that card is Claudia. That is, he was freed from Cárdenas’ dilemma. Your favorite is also the favorite to win the election.
Ebrard tries to convince us that Claudia won with a finger punch. But in practice it wasn’t even necessary. It was enough to establish the perception that she was the bearer of continuity and the president’s favorite to become the leader of the voting intentions. And there is no secret or black magic either. If half or a little more of the population is happy with López Obrador and one assumes that Claudia is the card that best represents continuity, the conclusion is obvious.
Of course, the pre-campaign context was not uniform. But not because López Obrador put pressure on governors or the Morena leadership, but because of the effect of the “indictment” itself. Political actors try to gain merit by making themselves “useful” for the “good”. The majority joined Claudia (some who had no idea joined Adán Augusto López), not because of a line dictated from above, but because they believed it suited their immediate future.
This does not mean that López Obrador followed the process with indifference. He came to Claudia’s aid in the few cases in which an imponderable event could have influenced her preferences (Metro line 3). However, apart from these circumstances, the very favorable development allowed him to act as a referee and dictate the rules of the competition, knowing that natural inertia would lead to the result that we saw today. In addition, in recent weeks the president has been particularly interested in ensuring that the process runs as cleanly as possible so as not to tarnish the legitimacy of the victory. In fact, the plan of the uprising was so complex and fraught with so many barriers as to give Ebrard no excuses; something that turned against Morena as it became a huge logistical challenge.
One might wonder why the president would feel more comfortable with Claudia and not another “Corcholata.” First, there would be an ideological reason. Of the three main options, it is the only one that comes from currents linked to the left, understood as those essentially concerned with inequality or social injustice. Both Adán Augusto and Ebrard were trained in the PRI. Secondly, although he comes from the left, he has never been one of the tribes that López Obrador doesn’t like: he has integrated them into his movement and they play a leading role, but he has been careful to let them control: not in Mexico City, but in which he first chose Marcelo Ebrard and later Claudia Sheinbaum, nor for the leadership of the party and certainly not for the successor. Thirdly, Claudia is the only one of the preliminary candidates who was essentially trained in the workshop: a scientist by profession, she entered active politics at the invitation of López Obrador, and the rest is history. This is not the case for the other two candidates, as both have positions and achievements prior to their careers and therefore may have a different agenda. Fourth, Sheinbaum is perceived by the President as a professional, strict, effective and hard-working team when she was Minister of Environment in the Mexico City government, Tlalpan delegate and head of government. Fifth, the Morena leader has repeatedly praised the hard work and loyalty of women in public tasks; It’s almost a kind of gender bias that would prefer to keep a woman in the presidential chair instead of a man. I’m not saying that he leans towards Sheinbaum because he considers her the most unconditional, because I think that in that case he would have chosen Adam Augusto. In short, if in the eyes of López Obrador the ideological credentials are correct, his lifestyle is austere, his professional skills are more than sufficient and there is an identification with the leader and his political program, the conclusion is logical.
In short: The reasons for Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory are not the anomalies or incidents of the process. It is a mixture of two factors: first, the belief within the movement that its characteristics represent the best option for viable continuity; and second, the strength with which the Obrador movement reaches the end of the six-year term that allows it to elect a pure standard-bearer. In order to be competitive, the opponent had to move into the middle; That wasn’t the case with Morena.
What’s next for Marcelo is a mystery beyond the breakup. Probably a negotiation with Movimiento Ciudadano. We will see.
Finally, a moral. The first attempt at primaries in Mexico was more than eventful on both sides of the political spectrum. Both in Morena and in the opposition, the base consultation process has been questioned for one reason or another. Everything indicates that management is too focused on the result to allow transparent and flawless processes. Perhaps it is time to consider area codes administered by the INE or an equivalent body. But the fact is: Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez were the people’s favorites on their respective sides. The rest is the grid and insecurity of our political class.
@jorgezepedap
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