Since the internal race began in Morena, no other candidate has put as much pressure as Marcelo Ebrard. Aware that he started in second place, he decided to increase the pace and mix up the playing field with small impulses during these months. The former chancellor revolutionized his image as a moderate by even offering the possibility of leaving Morena if they had done “something naughty” to him. After his defeat by Claudia Sheinbaum, he decided to redouble his commitment to the order, denouncing irregularities in the process and denouncing the party leadership, which he practically blames for forcing him out of the party. Some untimely statements that put him at a delicate crossroads: break with Andrés Manuel López Obrador after more than 20 years or peace negotiations with the president’s new heir before next year’s elections.
Ebrard’s position is difficult because at this point in the game almost all of the cards have already been played. Two very defined blocs and the loose movement of the citizens’ movement, increasingly weakened by internal divisions, which create pressure to join the opposition bloc. Many in Mexico wonder why, if Ebrard wanted to appear on the 2024 ballot at all costs, he waited until a point of seemingly no return. For the analyst and professor of political science at UNAM, Khemvirg Puente, “he really believed that he could overcome the difference.” He is a man with great political experience and has lived through many trials from which he did not emerge victorious. But now he is in a difficult time where he has to take sides.”
On the crucial day this Wednesday, the former Chancellor tightened his tone like never before. Even before the final results of the polls were known, which showed Sheinbaum as the winner, he gave a new ultimatum in a meeting with his team: “I will not submit to this lady.” Shortly before, he had asked the leader of his party, Mario Delgado, called a “coward”. After the decisive day, there was still unrest on Thursday, and he came back to the accusation: “We are aware that we have no more space in Morena after yesterday.” In the course of the morning there was even thought of a quick end to the dilemma. Time was of the essence as the deadline for registering with the electoral body as an independent candidate was ending, one of the derivations in the air. Finally, his team announced that any decision would be postponed until Monday.
Claudia Sheinbaum and Marcelo Ebrard at the start of the selection process for the Morena candidate on June 11th. Fernando Llano (AP)
Morena’s open arms
Despite these two days of anger, there was also room for nuance and contemporaneity in the speeches around her. His team sent signals against a separation on Wednesday. And Ebrard himself has called for analyzing things “somewhat cold-bloodedly” in the next few days and insisting on his personal harmony with López Obrador, whom he always considers a “friend”. An ambiguity that can be interpreted as a negotiating strategy with Morena to achieve the greatest possible return despite the defeat. In fact, the position within the party these days is one of open arms to the unlikely rebel. From the president to Sheinbaum himself, public messages have had a single horizon: “unity.”
Siren songs could also be heard from the opposition. The opposition front candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez, opened the door to her project. Ebrard quickly rejected this possibility categorically: “It would mean denying my entire political history and my political beliefs.” In addition to his long career alongside López Obrador, the former chancellor was one of the government’s strongmen, on many occasions one Sort of de facto vice president who expanded his sphere of influence beyond foreign relations. In such a polarized political climate, it would certainly be difficult for Ebrard to defend the banner of anti-Obradorism.
Ebrard and López Obrador, when both were active in the PRD, in 2011.Anonymous (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Since the window for an independent candidacy has closed, the deadline for which expired this Thursday, the only possible option in the event of an interruption seems to be to get on the boat of the citizens’ movement. Its president, the veteran Dante Delgado, has repeatedly expressed his sympathy for the former chancellor, whom he knows well from long ago when both were active in the PRI. Rumors of a rapprochement between the two are circulating these days, when the orange party is in a serious crisis precisely because of its leadership’s decision to continue on its own.
The opposition candidate herself spoke out and anticipated a possible strategy to limit the damage. Analysts are already speculating and predicting that an Ebrard candidacy would attract more votes from the opposition than Morena. “The president would ideally like Marcelo to choose another party to take votes away from the front, but I think it is too late.” “If he had participated internally in the front, perhaps his participation would be interesting because he was a man who had the sympathies of a certain sector.”
At the moment everything is in limbo. Ebrard also rejected what he called “consolation prizes” from Morena. The plan to heal the wounds after the internal conflict involves allocating positions according to the results. The second would be the Senate Bench Coordinator. For the time being, this is far from the former Chancellor’s intention. “Ebrard is pushing his negotiating position to the limit,” adds the UNAM political scientist. “But I don’t rule out that he will finally reach a good agreement on the positions of his people in Congress and in state and local offices. Nor does it seem unreasonable to me that, if he is not, his right-hand man Malú Micher is the coordinator in the Senate.”
For Colmex analyst Jose Antonio Crespo, the move could go in the opposite direction. “The confrontation with Sheinbaum was too intense. Furthermore, they have a long history of disagreements. Ebrard has certainly read Machiavelli and knows that he will be punished if he returns after tightening the rope so much.
Subscribe here Subscribe to the EL PAÍS México newsletter and receive all the important information on current events in this country