Meanwhile, the difficult period in the livestock sector is a bearish factor for corn prices. Foreign soybeans stable, sunflowers still declining
Be careful with soft wheat
Italy
Weakening of the markets following the Completion of collection and caution of operators We need to take further positions before we can form a final picture at European level. In the Milan market there is a higher premium for strong grains, while Bologna is more rewarding for the other product classes. The exchange takes place without any particular tension, with the interested parties aiming to meet in the coming months on the topic of quality (specific gravity and grinding values) and continuity of supply. The “Bologna 14 protein type” has a value of around €315-325/t on arrival, with “specials” around €265-275/t and “mixed” stable around €250/t; Items 4 and 5 initially consolidate at 210-220 €/t. Community bread production volumes are declining, with sources in the US and Canada hovering at €380/t on arrival.
Europe
week with Volatility due to geopolitical and commercial echoes from the Black Sea, but essentially stable with good trading levels and prices that are consolidating, although in an environment that is not yet balanced. Internal consumption represents the main source of revenue for the pieces, while exports are declining due to the lower competitiveness of the community product in North African markets. Confirmation of production with serious quality issues in Germany and “average” specifications below 2022 in Austria and Eastern Europe have helped stabilize local markets, which remain weaker for generic grains (Class 3 Ager type). The 2023 crop is estimated at 124-125 million and prices on the Paris Euronext for September are at €220/t, with “bread” Fob Rouen delivered at €230/t.
World
If the effect of Drought in the USA and Canada was evident in yields/ha and “spring” production, the acceleration of the threshing process and the marketing of numerous new crops dictated a Downtrend in Minneapolis and on the other American stock exchanges. Maximum attention on the possible reopening (or new forms of export) of the Black Sea “corridor”, with low price pressure from Russia with economic support from Qatar influencing the sales strategy of the rest of the world. Uncertainty stemming from Russian-Turkish talks on how to transport grain to countries with the largest deficit. If the Russian crop is expected to be down 10% compared to 2022 but still above 90 million/t, Australia’s crop forecasts fall to 26 million/t (30% less than a record 2022). Argentina for $307/t, Australian Soft White for $294/t, DNS for $307/t, Russian milling for $250/t.
Durum wheat, consolidation tests
Italy
After last week’s pessimistic tsunami on the main Italian stock exchanges The desire to consolidate the market around current values is perceived. Domestic consumption remains subdued and pasta exports are not a driving factor, with a stabilizing impact on the wheat and semolina market, which awaits confirmation from the global scenario that the game (production and quality) is over for the current season. For the Fino type, a price of €400-410/t upon delivery to destination is confirmed, with the discount for positions 2 and 3 remaining greater in the central north (€40/t and €100/t) than in the south (10 €/t). and 50 €/t).
Europe
Production scenario for 2023, now consolidated and now taking into account expected consumption and relevance of replacement in the EU and abroad, to define what the intra-EU market will look like in the coming months. If the French offer is the predominant one today in a clearly defined context for Spain and Greece, What worries operators and owners is the competition from Turkey. which offers many with good product specifications and protein content (a mix of local grains and those from the Black Sea?). The activity of the mills is progressing more slowly than expected and the arrival of the French supply, recalculated “arrival” in the country of destination, confirms that the value of durum wheat for the campaign is already almost defined, with premiums and discounts depending on the current specifications : FOB Mediterranean delivered from France has a value of €395/t.
World
The harvest in the USA and Canada is progressing rapidly and it is confirmed that the yields/ha are affected by the drought that has occurred, while the quality is confirmed as good. The global situation finds unexpected availability and (commercial) Disturbed by the Turkish offer, which could accommodate many people of Russian-Kazakh origin. Recent buy auctions in North Africa have returned values around $470/ton which, based on the port of destination, is currently emphasizing North American origin compared to the rest of the world. The value returning to the Mediterranean port in September is nominally around $500/t.
Corn, demand lower than expected
Italy
At the same time, adequate “any-origin” and one-source offerings are emerging on the market Demand was lower than expected due to the difficult situation in the livestock sector, between lower final demand and epidemiological risks. At both the local and municipal level (extended to Ukraine), the availability of goods is good, but the exchange remains limited, also due to the transversal competition of straw grain. On the raw materials exchanges in Milan (minus 17 €/t) and Bologna (minus 8 €/t), prices continue to lose ground and are based on arrival values, which are at 238-240 €/t for “with characteristics” maize Corn a 230-233 €/t. Community and foreign prices on a specific basis between 240 and 260 €/t.
Europe
The climatic advances of the last few days remain positive and this bodes well for a 2023 crop of good traits confirmed at 60 million tons. Demand is weak, but there has been trade both locally and within the EU, for example from France to Spain. There remains uncertainty about what will happen to arrivals from Ukraine and if the EU decides to regulate the import/transit of the product from these territories. There is currently weakness in both the physical market and the Paris futures market, with the November position hovering at €213/t and the ‘spot’ Bordeaux port of return at €226/t.
World
week with Alternation of feelings between optimism for the large Brazilian production and concern for a little rainy climate in the American “Corn Belt”. It follows that the supply from the USA is more expensive than from South America, where there are persistent drought conditions, particularly in Argentina, which could affect the next 2023/24 sowings. In Ukraine, crop estimates are better than forecast at 28 million tonnes, but it’s the urgent supply from Brazil that dominates the market, even as sellers reserve the option of provenance on executions. FOB prices: USA at $233/t, Ukrainian NQ, Argentina at $231/t, Brazil at $221/t.
Soy unchanged, sunflower still yields
Italy
Feed grain: Sorghum yields €2/t from the north and repositions itself at €213/t, with heavy barley unchanged at €210/t and soft barley at €210-220/t. Not a very active market, with cereals setting the trend. Oilseeds: Domestic soybeans are not yet quoted, foreign soybeans confirm their arrival at 520-530 €/t; Sunflower yields over 10 €/t in Bologna, with a delivery value of 380 €/t.
Europe
Feed grain: Week of weakness for barley and wheat, particularly at the local level, with demand from ports (target Asia) buoying an active market, but which will soon turn the attention of producers and stockists to the corn crop. Oilseeds: The rapeseed market is suffering from the declining wave of soybeans and rapeseed from overseas as well as good harvest prospects in Australia. On the Paris Euronext, rapeseed is worth 450 €/t (-15 €/t) in November, FOB Rouen is 460 €/t. The “oleic acid” sunflower returned to S. Nazaire for €440/t.
World
feed grains: The Erdogan-Putin meeting provided a bearish impetus that added to an already ongoing trend in European and Black Sea markets. China’s return to purchasing and lower crop in Canada (drought) are partially offset by excellent crop prospects in Australia and Russia’s trade strategy. Barley FOB Black Sea at $190/t, Australian at $249/t; SRW Fob Gulf wheat at $236/t and Ukrainian NQ. Oilseeds: In the US, the dry climate is a positive factor for soybeans, but crop forecasts in Brazil and agrimonetary policies in Argentina (larger sowings in 2023/24?) together with “technical” closures on the Cbot have created a downward price trend with implications for the Canadian “canola” that will soon compete with the 2023 Australian crop. FOB prices: US soybeans at $549/t, Brazilian soybeans at $523/t and Argentina at $533; Canadian fob canola at $610/t.