There is a “realistic possibility” that Ukrainian armed forces will break through all Russian defenses in southern Ukraine by the end of 2023. A Ukrainian source believes that the nearest Russian defensive positions are weaker than those already breached.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency’s director of analysis said there was a “realistic possibility” that Ukrainian forces would break through all Russian defenses in southern Ukraine by the end of 2023.
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Trent Maul said Ukrainian forces had also penetrated Russia’s “second” defense layer.
According to the Institute for War Research (ISW), it probably refers to the recent advances by Ukrainian light infantry beyond the line of Russian defensive positions stretching from northwest Verbowe to northern Solodka Balka (20 km south of Orichiv) in the western Zaporizhzhia region .
His assessment of the so-called second layer of defense is consistent with previous statements by Ukrainian officials that Ukrainian forces have already penetrated the densest minefields.
But what about the third layer? The consistency is lower here. According to Ukrainian sources, Russia’s “third” defense layer in southern Ukraine consists mainly of command posts, communication points and warehouses, and serves primarily as a support line for Russian defense positions further south.
The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s director of analysis said the bulk of Russian reinforcements were stationed at Russia’s “third” defense layer.
The ISW states that Russian defense on the southern Ukrainian front is not uniform. The next set of Russian defensive positions may be weaker, less mined and less guarded than the defensive layer that Ukrainian forces have breached, but still poses significant challenges to Ukrainian forces and can be held strong in places.
Additional Sources • @TheStudyofWar