Kyiv CNN —
The United States’ top general has warned Ukraine that just six weeks remain before changing weather complicates its counteroffensive, even as Kiev signals it could fight into winter.
“There is still a reasonable amount of time left, about 30 to 45 days of combat weather,” General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the BBC on Sunday. After that, mud and rain would likely impact battlefield maneuverability, he said.
Echoing recent “glass half full” messages from Biden administration officials, Milley said the counteroffensive has made “very steady progress” since it began in early June.
“The Ukrainians are not done yet, this fight is not over, and they have not yet completed the fighting part of what they want to achieve. It’s too early to say how this will end,” he said.
Reports on Sunday suggested that there were only minor gains near one of Ukraine’s main attack areas, near the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region, which is on the way to the strategic town of Tokmak.
An unofficial Telegram channel of Ukraine’s 46th Brigade, which has proven to be a reliable source of information, said the troops had advanced east of a neighboring village, but warned that Russian forces were still holding higher ground nearby, giving them a chance gave an advantage.
Meanwhile, an online update from the southern Tavria command said, “We continue to make small advances in the Robotyne area.” About 1.5 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory have been liberated,” but did not specify the timeframe related.
Asked about the speed of his troops’ advance on Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted that Ukraine still had the initiative but urged conference participants in Kiev not to treat the counteroffensive like a feature film that would be finished in 90 minutes.
One of Zelensky’s senior security officials, speaking at the same event the following day, suggested that Ukrainian forces might continue to attack well into the coming winter.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, acknowledged that the counteroffensive was progressing more slowly than he would have liked. Russia’s defense lines are well planned and heavily mined, which makes the situation on the battlefield “complicated.”
But while the cold weather is a reality the military cannot ignore, “hostilities will continue, the counteroffensive will continue,” he said.
Earlier in the week, retired US General David Petraeus appeared to make a similar forecast at a separate conference in Kiev, saying “It will remain so throughout the winter.”
Comparisons with Ukraine’s first major counter-offensive in 2022 also suggest that a longer timeframe may be possible.
Exactly a year ago, Russian forces were pushed east from the Kharkiv region, culminating in the recapture of the town of Lyman by Ukrainian forces around September 30.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south then lasted another six weeks and only ended around November 10th with the liberation of Kherson.
It remains a topic of debate among analysts and policymakers whether Ukraine should have maintained the momentum or whether Western allies failed to supply enough arms and ammunition to make it possible.
There are also fears from Kiev supporters that halting offensive operations next winter would only give Russia a chance to further strengthen its defenses.