A slow and expensive war. It couldn’t be any other way: the Ukrainians have to break through, the Russians have to hold. This makes the changes appear reduced, and it is the protagonists themselves who recognize this, speaking of hundreds of meters reclaimed.
Eastern Front
The invaders captured several positions around Kupyansk, the centerpiece of their counteroffensive. With two goals: capture territory and force opponents to keep troops in the area (instead of diverting them south). The Ukrainians are still trying to respond. In Bakhmut the situation is reversed, where the resistance has the initiative. There were reports of the “failure” of a Russian unit near Andriivka, which was, according to some reports, decimated by friendly fire. According to reports, the artillery received false information from the reconnaissance. The entire Donbass region remains a tragic “mill”.
Southern Front
The Ukrainians advance south of Robotyne and west of Verbove, the two key locations. There is concern in pro-Russian circles about the advance, reserves have been called in and, as experts note, the resistance situation has improved compared to a few weeks ago. However, Zelensky’s brigades are still far from their objectives: near Robotyne they have overcome the first line of defense, but remain about ninety kilometers from the coast, where they could break through the land corridor. What separates them is the terrain, the ever-expanding trenches, the mines, the army units and at least two “defense lines” that are not horizontal but are created to slow down the attackers in some way. “Above” the infantry with a large number of anti-tank tanks is the umbrella of helicopters and aviation, the two “weapons” in favor of Moscow. It would be crucial for Kiev to capture the road axis to Crimea, but it needs to get there or is in any case trying to get closer to be able to target it with its “parts”.
The maneuver
Everything takes time and you need even more if you’re trying to contain losses. A necessary caution that contradicts the Pentagon’s forecasts, according to which Ukraine still has 30 to 45 days until General Winter’s vanguard appears, and this in unfavorable climate and soil conditions. The negative predictions are contradicted by the head of intelligence Kyrylo Budanov, the man of surprises, who proposes his scenario: If the mud creates an obstacle for the armored vehicles that we will advance on foot, there is always a tactic.
Behind the lines
Partisans and invaders are constantly active in the occupied territories. The frequency of acts of sabotage, “accidents” and eliminations to create insecurity in the hinterland or in Russia itself is high. A few hours ago, local sources reported the death of Gennady Dovoboi, a fairly well-known nationalist propagandist: he was hit by a car in Donetsk. In addition to the “human” component, there is also the use of raids on bases or facilities. In this regard, observers are wondering how many Anglo-French cruise ships Kiev has long-range systems capable of “going deep”. However, the invaders have no problems, as the intensity of the use of the Shahed Kamikaze drones shows: the local production is in addition to the production coming from Iran. An arsenal sufficient to continue the campaign against the cities.
Black Sea
In the Black Sea the pattern does not change. Putin’s navy has strategic control and uses the units to launch missiles. Zelensky’s fast flotilla – made up of speedboats, inflatable boats and small lookouts – relies on hit-and-run tactics or radio-controlled explosive boats. He couldn’t help it. The latest blow came with the liberation of the Boika Towers oil platform occupied by the Russians in 2015, an operation planned by the secret service together with special forces. The spy-command combination is the Ukrainian “trademark,” enabling the implementation of spectacular initiatives – even if the impact may be relative – and underscoring the message of challenge to the Kremlin.
Accusations
The statements of soldiers at the front are sometimes mirrored. Russians and Ukrainians complain about incompetent commanders, a lack of equipment, poor coordination and, above all, the many killed, maimed and wounded comrades. The stories grew in connection with the offensive, a result of the severity of the fighting, often at close quarters, within the tree lines that had become narrow war positions. To clear them, they must pass through the mine-filled “belts” designed for defense and leave the armored vehicles far away to prevent them from falling into a trap.
The invaders, particularly in the south, claim their cannon fire is less precise and they lack reconnaissance drones. Their opponents often emphasize the lack of sufficient resources despite Western aid and emphasize the lack of experienced replacements. They are fragments, partial truths, hints of what awaits them. And they are waiting for guidance. Zelensky hopes to receive projectiles, missiles with a range of 300 kilometers, F16 fighters (perhaps in winter) and perhaps even Swedish Grippen (Stockholm is considering supplying 16-18 aircraft) and other tanks, including the American Abrams.
Putin pushes for war production as he turns to his allied patrol for materials: Now it’s North Korea’s Kim’s turn. Its bunkers are full of “shots”, rockets, grenades, perhaps in conditions that are not always perfect, but in this conflict we have seen that everything is used.