No. 7 Penn State leaves friendly Beaver Stadium in Happy Valley for its first test of the 2023 season, facing an Illinois team that suffered a lopsided non-conference loss to Kansas in Week 2. At the start of the year, the Nittany Lions were a trendy pick to win the Big Ten, and through two games into the 2023 season, they certainly looked like a team that would beat league powers Michigan and Ohio State for the top spot later in the year could challenge.
After a 38-15 win over West Virginia, the Nittany Lions beat Delaware 63-7 last week. New starting quarterback Drew Allar has shown the talent that made him a five-star prospect coming out of high school, and the Nittany Lions have looked solid in all phases of the game.
The same cannot be said for Illinois, which appears to be at full 180 as of 2022. After surprising the country last year with an eight-win season behind one of the best defenses in the country, the Illini struggled to get stops in their first two games. They needed a last-minute field goal in the opener to get past Toledo and lost to Kansas last Friday after digging themselves a hole early in the first half.
Now these teams begin their conference appearances against each other. Penn State has long since won the duel and has won 20 of the 26 meetings. However, Illinois won the final meeting of 2021 after defeating Penn State 20-18 in nine overtimes in State College, Pennsylvania.
Penn State vs. Illinois: What you need to know
Penn State has won 14 straight times against unranked opponents: The last time Penn State lost to an unranked opponent? I’ll give you a hint. It included nine overtimes and 38 points. Yes, that’s right, I’m talking about the all-time classic where Penn State lost 29-18 to the same Illini program during the 2021 season. If you don’t remember, the teams were tied 10-10 after four quarters and it took nine overtimes before Illinois finally converted a 2-point try and stopped Penn State.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith leads the Big Ten in receiving yards per game: We heard a lot of hype about Penn State’s defense in the offseason and their strength at running back. There was also a lot of talk surrounding Allar. The question that kept coming up was who would emerge as the team’s biggest receiver threat. Parker Washington and Mitchell Tinsley had both moved on, and the Nittany Lions had lost Jahan Dotson the year before. Enter Lambert Smith. In Penn State’s first two games, he caught 10 passes for 197 yards and two touchdowns. His 98.5 receiving yards per game are the best in the conference, ahead of Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr.
Illinois’ Johnny Newton was outstanding in two games: Illinois’ defense has struggled in two games, marking a change in direction after being among the best in the country last year. However, while the secondary was a concern, the preseason All-American lived up to expectations on the defensive line. Newton was his usual disruptor with two sacks and seven QB pressures. The Illini will need him to make more noise in the backfield this weekend if they want to surprise the Nittany Lions again.
How to watch Penn State vs. Illinois live
Date: Saturday, September 16 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Memorial Stadium – Champaign, Illinois
TV: fox | Live broadcast: fubo (Try for free)
Penn State vs. Illinois Prediction, Tips
SportsLine consensus odds
While Illinois struggled defensively to start the season, I expect things to look better this weekend. As talented as Allar is, he isn’t the dual threat that has caused so many problems for the Illini. Illinois was hesitant to apply pressure in the first two games for fear that Toledo’s Dequan Finn or Kansas’ Jalon Daniels would come through with long runs. On the other hand, while Illinois’ offense looked good, Penn State will be by far the strongest defense it faces. I don’t think it will be as ugly as the Nine-OT game of 2021, but I don’t think it will be worth much more points either. Selection: Under 48.5
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