Chilean President Gabriel Boric at the inauguration ceremony of the Constitutional Council at the Congress headquarters in Santiago Cristobal Venegas
Three months before Chileans vote for or against the second text to replace the constitution inherited from Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship in the December 17 referendum, the forecasts are negative. So far, all polls show that citizens will reject the proposal from the Constitutional Council, a 50-member body in which the far-right Republicans have the majority. The tax exemption for first homes (which benefits people with higher incomes), the introduction of conscientious objection by institutions and the fact that state assets are subject to concessions for public use are some of the changes that are causing the most tension. The lack of parity, seats for indigenous peoples and climate change were also breeding grounds for the lack of consensus.
There is still a crucial phase that can turn the situation around and bring the main political forces together to demand a new constitution after four years of uncertainty. Voting on the proposed amendments to the preliminary draft of the expert commission began in the constitutional plenum on Friday. The Republicans maintained their majority with the votes of the traditional right-wing coalition Chile Vamos: of the 151 amendments that reached the plenary session, only five were introduced by the left, according to the Constitutional Monitor platform.
Amid this complex situation for the ruling party, part of the traditional right has shown signs in recent days that they will not always dance to the rhythm of the Republicans. Some city councilors from Chile Vamos left their coalition on Friday and, together with the votes of the left, managed to overthrow the clause that stated that “every person is a person”, which was heavily criticized in progressivism for leaving a space for the Obstruction of the law opened. of abortion for three reasons. The norm that established cueca as a national dance and rodeo as a national sport was also rejected. Council members have until Oct. 4 to vote for or against the amendments, determining what type of potential Magna Carta should be put to a three-month referendum.
“The amendments hurt us and even more so the way in which they were processed and approved,” said Verónica Undurraga, chairwoman of the Committee of Experts, this Friday, “not because we were in love with the text of the draft, but because…” We understood that the councilors would bring other concerns of the citizenry that needed to be collected, but because they left us out of the text, they left us out of the text without any consideration,” he noted.
Professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Diego Portales, Claudio Fuentes, who is following the constitutional debate in detail, believes that the election campaign held in the coming weeks will determine whether the December vote will be truly competitive. “I consider it virtually impossible to initiate a new constitutional process if this is rejected and it is unlikely that reforms will be presented in Congress.” Next year the political cycle will be dominated by local elections and the following year by presidential elections, therefore the time will be very limited,” he emphasizes.
Unlike the academic, political scientist Claudia Heiss, head of the political science program at the Faculty of Government at the University of Chile, believes it is likely that if the proposal is rejected, the various sectors will seek constitutional reforms in Congress, where they have been since the mid-20th century Constitutional reforms are sought – From 2022, the quorum for changing the text thickness is 4/7 and no longer -2/3. Who would promote the changes? “I think the ruling party doesn’t have much to gain from the constitutional agenda today. Rather, I think the right can try to push forward reforms that have been proposed in the current council, such as redistricting. They could try to constitutionalize the isapres (private health insurers) and the AFP (individual capitalization system), but I don’t know if they have the votes for that. “Yes, they are more likely to pursue political reforms that strengthen the right in the long term,” he added from Washington.
Political scientist and University of Chile academic Octavio Avendaño agrees that if the second constitutional process fails in Congress, alternatives to amending Magna Carta will open up. He estimates that the preliminary draft prepared by the experts, which has found a broad consensus, “can serve as input to the resolutions that arise among parliamentarians and may lead to the approval of some reforms” related to the functioning of the state and education interconnectedness and decentralization. Contrary to Heiss’ predictions, Avendaño believes that the ruling party will be the one that tries to push it forward and that center-left forces such as the Democratic Party, the Yellow Party and the Christian Democracy “will become more important because these votes become more important will win.” necessary and because “they were in favor of constitutional reform in Congress.”
Lawyer María José Naudon argued that if the current proposal is rejected, Chile will squander “a fundamental opportunity for political and economic stability.” “If the fragmentation and deadlock of the political system and the urgent need to modernize the state are not resolved, we will be faced with even greater stagnation than before.” If we increase the disillusionment and boredom of citizens, the conditions for anti-politics are created created that is the gateway to the greatest vices of democracy,” he said.
The government of Gabriel Boric is sticking with all its might to the constitutional project and softening the tone so that the proposal is a transversal political pact and “a common house for the majority of Chileans”. “We still have time to change course,” warned former President Michele Bachelet. In the event that the text does not identify the ruling party, they will be able to demand the rejection of the text and the maintenance of the validity of Pinochet’s constitution. Political scientist Avendaño says: “If it is rejected, I don’t think it will hurt the Republican Party as much as it hurts those who tried to change the Constitution.” What is rejected is a new attempt to change the Constitution , it’s not the Republican constitution. There is a part of the citizenry that did not think a second attempt was necessary. In the background there is an elite discussion in which there is obviously a sector that is sensitive and attentive to what the Republicans are doing and that will probably produce a more conservative text than the current one, but public opinion does not see it that way. ” .
For their part, the Republicans have made sure that if the proposal is not convincing, they can find explanations for the failure and defend that they never wanted to change the current Magna Carta. Given the criticism they have received over the amendments, José Antonio Kast, the former Republican Party presidential candidate, said this week: “If the Communist Party and the Broad Front are against it, that is positive for Chile.” “We are up the right path,” with a view to President Boric’s coalition.