When General Winter took the field, the bad weather always favored the Russians. And there is a risk of this happening even now, as Ukraine is in full (albeit slow) march to… Already a subscriber? Login here!
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The view of the area of General Winter, bad weather, has always favored the Russians. And there is a danger of this happening even now, with Ukraine in full (albeit slow) advance and time running out before the days grow shorter and torrential rain, snow and ice are upon us. A Wall Street Journal report calls the bad weather “Ukraine’s next enemy on the battlefield.” And he quotes the US Chief of Staff: Mark Milley. “The Ukrainian armed forces still have 30 to 45 good days of fighting ahead of them before the weather changes.” A month and a half. The end of October is the limit at which the conflict solidifies into a static conflict between trenches and no one can attack anymore. According to the majority Analysts, the movement of vehicles and troops, the launch of drones, the sending of weapons to the front and the replacement of soldiers become more complicated. THE tank There is a risk that they will get stuck, as was the case with the Russian tanks on the way there at the end of February Kyiv. “The rain will make the work much more difficult,” admits Oleksandr Solonko, head of a Ukrainian drone unit. “The mud will limit maneuverability. Logistics routes are already limited and in bad weather the options are limited even further. The opportunities for armored vehicles to advance will be limited.” And drones will have difficulty getting into the air and hitting targets. However, the chances of a ceasefire, the first step towards peace negotiations, will increase. A prospect that the Ukrainians reject for the time being.
TO PLAN
“The fighting will continue one way or another,” explains Kyiv military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. “The fight is more difficult in cold, damp and muddy conditions, but offensive operations continue on all fronts.” Ukrainian forces have been advancing south for weeks, now under Zaporizhia and around the occupied city Bakhmut. “They carry out their counteroffensive, aiming to attack the enemy, and not to liberate a specific section of territory,” says Orio Giorgio Stirpe, who, as an official analyst for the Italian and NATO military services, has observed the movements of the Russians in the East years and even predicted the invasion of Ukraine. “Their goal is the liberation of the entire occupied territory and not just a part. To do this, they must put the enemy forces to flight.” Army, Navy and Air Force. And that’s why they bomb ships in Sevastopol and air bases in the Russian Federation with drones. It is true that the counteroffensive “is progressing more slowly than almost everyone expected, and this is because the Ukrainians do not have numerical superiority, but above all air power, which requires a slow advance that requires extremely long operational sustainability requires”.
THE OFFENSIVE
“The autumnal weather conditions in the south – he explains ancestry – They are much less obstructive than the rest of Ukraine, and then a large part of the attack maneuver is done through slow and systematic infiltration of foot units, rather than shock actions of mechanized units. Therefore the mud has a low hindrance value.” Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of NATO, explained the situation yesterday in “In Mezz’ora” on Rai 3. “Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive that we all hoped would be faster, but it is gradually gaining ground.” Wars are unpredictable, and when they start, they tend to last longer than expected. “Therefore,” he stressed, “we must prepare for a long war.” But there are positive signs. “Many of us feared that Ukraine would collapse within weeks and that Russia would take Kiev in a few days. But the opposite happened, the Ukrainians managed to repel the Russians and liberate some areas. The stronger Ukraine is on the battlefield and the more territories it can liberate, the stronger it will be at the negotiating table.” Another positive element yesterday was the passage of two ships flying the flag from Palau to the port of Chernomosk, along one of the Ukrainians protected corridor in the Black Sea, with the intention of loading grain. The Russians’ fear of new attacks on the fleet with missiles and naval drones is so great that they have withdrawn some ships from Crimea to the Sea of Azov.
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