These days is New York Climate Week, a fundamental annual meeting in preparation for the next Climate Summit (COP), which will take place in Dubai at the end of November this year. The main topic to be discussed in New York is the global goal that the COP presidency has already informally presented: by 2030, the world should triple its electricity demand from renewable energies in just seven years. This goal will be formalized at the COP in Dubai with the agreement of all countries.
In this short section I will try to answer some basic questions related to this goal:
What is this goal?
There are currently three major renewable electricity generation technologies in the world: hydropower, wind power and photovoltaics. Of these, 1,400 gigawatts (GW), 900 GW and 1,000 GW were installed at the end of 2022, which, together with others of lesser importance, totaled 3,500 GW (i.e. as reference data). , about 30 times the Spanish electricity system, including all generation plants, renewable energy and thermal energy).
A capacity of 3,900 GW is expected to be achieved by the end of this year. The global goal is to reach 11,500 GW in 2030, thus tripling the current output (renewables are 100 times the entire current Spanish system!). This value could be achieved with the following increases: 60% more for photovoltaics, 30% more for wind (30%) and for others, such as. B. Hydraulics, an increase of 10%.
In other words, it is about advancing the expansion of renewable energy by 20 years, since with current political forecasts we would reach around 12,000 GW in 2050, which would be very far from the net-zero emissions scenario.
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Does it make sense for the world to make this effort?
Although there are other possible measures, the main way to reduce CO₂ emissions on a global scale cannot be other than investments in renewable energy in the power sector; an investment that replaces fossil fuels (even today, more than 60% of the world’s electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels) and meets the needs of increased demand, particularly in developing countries (global electricity demand is expected to increase by at least the second half by 2050). .5 times). ).
It is imperative that this target be achieved in 2030 and not in 2050, as it will avoid a significant amount of emissions. In fact, compliance with this measure is crucial to keep the planet in line with the Paris Agreement, that is, to achieve a temperature increase of no more than 1.5 degrees in 2050.
If the goal of tripling renewable energy is obviously pushed back to 2050, the rise in temperature and its social and economic impact will be much greater.
Furthermore, in an increasingly complex geostrategic energy situation, domestic production improves security of supply, helps reduce air pollution and is the main way to reduce electrical energy prices worldwide – renewable energy is already the cheapest way to generate energy 80% the world – and create local industries with high-quality employment opportunities. Four convincing arguments that give meaning and utmost urgency to this goal.
Is compliance feasible?
Renewable energies are the most important growth factor in global electricity generation. The technological revolution that they have experienced in recent years, reducing costs by more than 90% in a decade, makes the “new” renewable energies the most economical technologies to generate 80% of the electricity on the planet.
Currently, photovoltaics is one of only three technologies on track to reach the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 (alongside electric cars and high-efficiency LED lighting). Wind energy is also making good progress, but not fast enough.
Driving the goal to fruition obviously requires greater effort than expected. It is a very ambitious goal, but not impossible to achieve: tripling renewable energy in 2030 is in line with the International Energy Agency’s zero emissions scenario in 2050, considered by all experts to be an ambitious but feasible scenario .
What is needed?
The relevant technology exists, companies are ready to invest, we have the necessary resources, but to achieve this goal before 2030, the current investment rate must be tripled (from around 300-400 GW per year to 1,000 GW).
We need a major global effort, reflected in a consistent energy policy, with defined medium and long-term goals in all countries, with the development of the necessary infrastructure, with improvements in planning and approval systems, with an appropriate scaling of supply chains and security of supply Raw materials will be clarified and international cooperation, including economic aid to developing countries, will be improved.
And of course, it is crucial that companies pursue renewable energy development in a way that also has a positive impact on biodiversity and local communities.
It may seem like an unattainable, unattainable goal. But it really isn’t. While it is a very ambitious goal, it is not impossible to achieve. The experience of the last decades shows us that the difficulties have been overcome by political impulses and technological development (who would have said 10 years ago that today we would be installing 400 GW of new renewable energy per year!). What seemed like an impossible mission at the time was finally accomplished. It is crucial that we take this path by all of us working together, governments, companies and citizens, in an alliance. That’s what the signs of the times say. The seriousness and urgency of the “problem” is compelling.
We shorten deadlines, drive progress and thus secure the future horizon for the next generations. It is urgent. It is necessary. It is possible.
Gonzalo Saenz de Miera He is president of the Spanish Green Growth Group.
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