Australia announced on Tuesday that the El Niño climate pattern was already underway as it faced an intense heatwave in the middle of spring. Rising temperatures have increased the risk of wildfires, prompting authorities to impose a total ban on firerelated activities in Sydney.
Australia, which “took a while” to officially announce the arrival of El Niño, is now bracing for a hot and dry southern hemisphere spring and summer in 2023, after three years of heavy rains and frequent floods.
The forecast dry weather could hit wheat production in Australia, one of the world’s biggest exporters. The winter harvest of this grain should begin in November.
“In some parts of the continent we are already experiencing extreme conditions, particularly during the duration of the heat. We had a long period of hot and dry weather at the start of spring,” Karl Braganza, a meteorologist at the Australian Meteorological Office, told reporters.
Crowds tolerate the scorching sun to watch the end of a marathon at the Sydney Opera House EPA/STEVE MARKHAM
The last two wildfires in Australia were benign compared to the bushfires in the socalled Black Summer of 2019/20, which destroyed an area the size of Turkey and killed 33 people.
Will El Niño come later in Australia?
The Climate Prediction Center of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOOA) officially declared the return of El Niño in June.
The Australian Meteorological Office uses different standards than NOOA and uses criteria that are considered slightly more stringent to declare an El Niño. This climate pattern tends to be associated with extreme weather events, from wildfires to hurricanes to droughts.
The declaration of an El Niño in Australia comes now, in September, in the context of an unusual spring heatwave in some parts of the country.
Several regions in Australia have been assigned a high fire danger. Authorities warned that strong winds could cause wildfires and urged residents to minimize the risk of fires in their homes and avoid campfires and activities involving fires.
The trauma of the Black Summer
Adding to the tension, unusually heavy rains since the Black Summer have stimulated vegetation growth. These leaves provide additional fuel that can be burned in an El Niño weather system.
“These would be perfect conditions for wildfires,” said Jason Evans, a professor at the Climate Change Research Center at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
“After we lose the wet conditions that created this landscape, we could end up with a very dry landscape, but with a lot of fuel because we had fastgrowing vegetation here,” the Australian scientist added.
Australians watched with sadness as the bushfires devastated Europe and North America this year. Now they feel it’s Australia’s turn again as global warming accelerates and weather changes are exaggerated.
Of the ten hottest years on record in Australia, eight have occurred since 2010say meteorologists.
Fires to reduce risk
The short period of time since the last catastrophic wildfire season has contributed to delays in fire risk reduction. This strategy involves preemptively burning selected areas to limit the spread of wildfires. However, to put it into practice requires operations. And some volunteer firefighters have resigned due to trauma.
Continued heavy rain also affected firefighters’ ability to conduct controlled fires. Since dozens of forest fires were already raging, the volunteer service said it had only achieved 24% of the planned risk reduction.
“We’ve just had rain after rain after rain, so we’re pretty behind,” Rural Fire Commissioner Bob Rogers told Portal.
The heavy rains also meant that despite the return of dry heat, baseline conditions were different than the 2019 and 2020 fires, which followed a prolonged drought, Rogers said. Although there is plenty of fuel, at least it is not as dry as in the Black Summer.
Still, “we take this very seriously,” he added. “While it may not be that bad, a fire season doesn’t have to be that bad to destroy homes and actually claim lives,” Bob Rogers concludes.
Cold front in sight
More than 500 firefighters and rescue workers were trying to contain 61 fires across New South Wales on Tuesday morning, with 13 fires still uncontrolled, authorities said.
Australian firefighters prepare for ‘biggest’ fire threat since Black Summer Portal/CORDELIA HSU
More than 20 schools in New South Wales, most in the southern part of the state, have been closed. The fire danger on the south coast has been raised to “catastrophic” due to stronger than expected winds.
“It is the highest risk we have faced since the 201920 fire season,” Rob Rogers said.
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney is expected to record five consecutive maximum daily temperatures of more than 30 degrees Celsius in September, a record.
Temperatures could reach 34 degrees Celsius in Sydney this Tuesday, just below the September record of 34.6 degrees Celsius in 1965. However, a cold front forecast for Thursday should bring some relief from the heat, pushing thermometers to 20 degrees Celsius.