The bloody push toward Tokmak is a small part of a front line that stretches several hundred miles, part of a broader push in which Ukrainian forces are trying to break through elsewhere to the south and east.
Source: Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
After a series of victories last year, military analysts expected Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive to try to split Russian supply lines in the south and drive a wedge between western Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea.
The Russian military expected the same and prepared accordingly. Moscow redeployed troops, dug new fortifications and scattered landmines across the relatively flat fields of southern Ukraine. When Ukraine began its attack, despite fresh supplies of modern Western tanks and equipment, it faced a prepared defense the likes of which had not been seen in Europe since World War II.
Ukraine surged forward in June but quickly lost tanks, troops and other armored vehicles to dense minefields and prepared Russian troops. Kiev’s forces initially used American tactics more suited to the last century than today’s battlefield in Ukraine.
Since August the fighting has been concentrated in the small hamlet of Robotyne. The Ukrainians are fighting to widen the gap in the hope that they can capitalize on their hard-won gains and advance to the nearest Russian line of defense.
This is what Robotyne looked like a year ago: occupied by Russia, untouched by battles and home to about a hundred people.
As Ukrainian forces moved closer to Robotyne over the summer, shell hits littered the fields, and trees and vegetation that hid Russian trenches and positions were slowly cut down.
By the end of the summer, Robotyne was all but gone. Most of its buildings were destroyed. Fields were burned. And the surrounding farmland was more like the lunar surface.
Sources: satellite images from Planet Labs, Brady Africk’s analysis of images from Copernicus (Russian fortifications).
The battle for Robotyne has been made clear in official statements and grainy videos on social media, leaving the extent of the destruction and level of violence in the fight for such a small piece of land largely at arm’s length. It is unclear how many soldiers – on both sides – died during the battle, but images from above suggested the cost was disproportionate to the amount of land retaken.
Robotyne is now a village in name only. In late August, Ukrainian forces released footage showing their troops advancing into what remained of the small enclave, images showing bombed-out fields and roads and destroyed homes.
Dozens of craters filled the small area seen in one photo, an indication of how much ammunition was needed to seize control of a city just over a mile wide.
Image source: Ukrainian Armed Forces, via Portal
As fall approaches and the weather worsens, Ukraine’s gains around Robotyne could determine the next steps in its southern campaign.
As in the summer, Russia also knows this. It has committed significant resources to the area to prevent Ukraine from advancing further south.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi/Telegram, via Portal
With Robotyne firmly in Ukraine’s hands, Kiev’s forces shift east toward their next target and Russia’s main line of defense around the village of Verbove. There have been reports of Ukrainian gains and Russian counterattacks, but the progress of the offensive is unclear.
The currency of the counteroffensive is ammunition, vehicles and human lives. One thing is certain: More people will die, more buildings will burn, and the surrounding fields will be littered with landmines and unexploded shells that will likely take decades to clear.