NFL QB EPA Rankings: Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson are on different paths – The Athletic

Cleveland, Cleveland. It’s almost not fair.

Baker Mayfield is enjoying a two-week renaissance with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Deshaun Watson has been sleeping nonstop for eight starts as the Browns’ quarterback. Mayfield is one of the best quarterbacks in Week 2. As for Watson, an AFC North rival saved him from being the worst.

It’s one of the many fascinating facts emerging from the NFL quarterback community after the first two weeks of the 2023 season.

Here’s my weekly look at quarterback performance. I use traditional statistics like passer rating as well as advanced metrics like expected points added per dropback to provide a numbers-based perspective on the health of the position.

I’ll also take a quick look at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they’ll face.

(Quarterbacks are listed by overall EPA ranking per dropback via TruMedia.)

GO DEEPER

Vic’s Picks, Week 3: Tua Tagovailoa continues to play like an MVP

No. 1-8

Tua Tagovailoa has set the bar pretty high for himself heading into Week 2. The Miami Dolphins quarterback posted just the highest EPA rate (0.60) of his career in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Still, his 0.25 odds in Miami’s Week 2 win over the New England Patriots are top notch. Tagovailoa was pressured on just 18.8 percent of his dropbacks in Week 2. For the season, Tua’s opponent pressure rate is 25.6 percent, making him one of the least pressured QBs in the league.

Another week in which we discover that Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love is among the EPA’s top quarterbacks. And I’m not sure too many people would have viewed Love as the top QB in passer rating in two weeks. That completion rate still concerns me, however, as it sits at 55.8 percent overall, up from a 56.0 percent rate in the loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

Dak Prescott looked pretty impressive in Week 2 against a typically strong New York Jets defense. The Dallas Cowboys didn’t need much from him in Week 1 against the New York Giants, but he thrived with an increased workload against the Jets, completing 31 of 38 passes for 255 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. For perspective, a 0.24 single-season rate would have placed him second in last year’s rankings behind only Patrick Mahomes.

Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams remains high in the EPA standings thanks to Week 1. Two interceptions, a TD and 307 yards on 55 attempts in the loss to the San Francisco 49ers sent his Week 2 rate slipping into the bottom half of the league. However, he definitely likes to throw rookie Puka Nacua at record-breaking speeds.

The old Jared Goff might not have recovered after throwing a pick six in the fourth quarter of a loss to the Seattle Seahawks. But the Detroit Lions passer led to two shots on goal after the turnover, so the game at least went into overtime. His numbers for Week 2 – and overall – scream outstanding quarterback play. Remember, Goff finished last season fourth in EPA rate and seventh in passer rating. There he is right again.

Another missed day for Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers. The numbers are all pointing upward for the newly paid quarterback after Herbert finished last season with career-lows in EPA rate (0.04) and passer rating (93.2). But failing to get it done in the final moments of Week 1’s losses to the Dolphins and Week 2’s losses to the Tennessee Titans has diminished the shine of his overall stats this season.

How did Mayfield get here? I’m as surprised as anyone that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback is climbing the charts. He particularly shined against the blitz in the Week 2 win over the Chicago Bears. His 1.60 EPA rate against an additional pass rush was the best single-game rate of his career. It’s also the seventh-best single-game percentage of any QB over the last two seasons.

Reviews for Brock Purdy weren’t exactly positive in Week 2. But the 49ers have the luxury of not needing exceptional plays from Purdy every week to win. The team’s Week 2 triumph over the Rams was Purdy’s first regular season start without a touchdown pass.

No. 9-16

The thrill of Geno Smith brought with it all the good feelings in the Seahawks’ win over the Lions. He rediscovered all the numbers that made him successful last season in Week 2, including a 78.0 percent completion rate in Detroit. Smith’s 0.30 EPA rate and 116.3 passer rating were his third- and fourth-best performances over the last two seasons, respectively.

Jimmy Garoppolo’s EPA rate fell after posting 0.41 in Week 1 against the Denver Broncos. This occurred despite the Buffalo Bills only pressuring Garoppolo on 16 percent of his dropbacks during the Las Vegas Raiders’ Week 2 loss. This was Garoppolo’s third-worst single-game EPA rate and second-lowest passer rating in the last three seasons.

Same story, different week for Kirk Cousins ​​of the Minnesota Vikings. Elite passer rating, very good EPA rate, another loss – this time against the Philadelphia Eagles. Until the Vikings can hold onto the ball and stop the attack on the defense, you may have to get used to Cousins’ numbers being for nothing.

There’s nothing like facing the Raiders’ defense to get Josh Allen’s mojo back. The Bills quarterback completed 83.8 percent of his passes in the team’s Week 2 win. It is the second-highest completion percentage in a single game of his career. That puts Allen at the top of the league in completion percentage for two weeks.

Sean Payton, coach of the Denver Broncos, once again showed no compromise. This time, Russell Wilson received the public criticism following the team’s Week 2 loss to the Washington Commanders. A Hail Mary throw improved Wilson’s EPA rate and passer rating, but he finished Week 2 with just a 56.3 completion percentage.

Lamar Jackson seemed to have mastered the Baltimore Ravens’ new offensive system. Jackson’s EPA rate in Week 2 and his passer rating in the team’s Week 2 win over the Cincinnati Bengals were his third-best single-game numbers in the last three seasons. You also have to like his distribution in the passing game, because six different pass catchers get at least three balls.

In a week full of quarterback bonanzas, Patrick Mahomes posted average numbers compared to his peers. It’s by no means that his performances in Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars were bad. These odds would have been top 10 in Week 1. The Kansas City Chiefs passer targeted 12 pass catchers and scored on 11 of them in the Week 2 win.

Joshua Dobbs tried to thwart the Arizona Cardinals’ hopes and dreams of signing USC quarterback Caleb Williams against the New York Giants. Dobbs made the Cardinals look like a viable offense. Or maybe it was the Giants’ defense. Regardless, Dobbs is lurking in the middle of the pack in EPA rate and passer rating after two weeks.

No. 17-24

Do you believe in Sam Howell and/or Desmond Ridder? The train door is wide open for both of them. The Commanders are 2-0 with Howell, a 2022 fifth-round pick. As are the Falcons with Ridder, a 2022 third-round pick. Washington seems to have more on Howell’s shoulders than Ridder. Howell posted a near-perfect passer rating of 155.8 (158.3 is perfect). Ridder completed more passes in Week 2 (19) than he attempted in Week 1 (18).

Two games into his career with the New Orleans Saints, Derek Carr still has a certain amount of discomfort. Granted, the Saints are 2-0 for the first time since 2013. But Carr is still getting a feel for things. His overall EPA rate dropped from 0.09 after Week 1 to -0.03 after Week 2. His overall passer rating increased from 96.1 after Week 1 to 80.2 after Week 2. His completion percentage of 58.3 against Carolina Panthers was more reminiscent of his Raiders days in 2022. However, all of his receivers (Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed) were big for him in critical moments.

CJ Stroud may have produced one of the quieter games of 384 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in recent memory. At this point, you’re looking for defining moments from the Houston Texans rookie. This game for the 2023 No. 2 pick against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2 would qualify.

Two games for Anthony Richardson. Some promising moments, but the Colts rookie was unable to finish two starts due to various injuries. He got Indy going with two rushing touchdowns before leaving Week 2 with a concussion, and Gardner Minshew filled in very well (0.32 EPA rate, 112.1 passer rating).

Daniel Jones went from being the league’s piñata through the first six quarters of the 2023 season to having one of the best halves in football through the first two weeks. The Giants quarterback posted a 0.85 EPA rate in the comeback win over the Cardinals. It was the second-highest second-half EPA rate this season behind Love in Week 1. Jones also posted a passer rating of 149.8 in the final 30 minutes.

The Patriots’ Mac Jones continued his consistently poor performance. Jones has done just enough to stay just above the bottom 25 percent of qualified passers in the league in EPA rate and passer rating through two weeks. He faced two good teams in two weeks, the Eagles and the Dolphins, but if the Patriots hold out in the AFC East, Blabla will likely yield a mediocre record at best.

Pretty strange to think that Jalen Hurts’ numbers in Week 2 “improved” his overall percentage to -0.13 or 93.1. However, his accuracy is among the best in the league as his completion percentage of 71.4 ranks sixth. He’s still the man to rush touchdowns for a QB after sneaking into the end zone twice in the win over the Vikings. But it’s not like the Eagles needed Hurts to be great in the first two weeks, especially considering how Philly ran through Minnesota on the ground.

No. 25-32

The only real positive for the Bears’ Justin Fields in Week 2 was pressure percentage. Fields watched the rate drop to 38.9 percent in the loss to the Bucs, which was much lower than the 54.2 percent he suffered in the Week 1 loss to Green Bay. Meanwhile, his other rates fell in Week 2 for all the wrong reasons:

• Week 1: -0.10 EPA per dropback, 78.2 passer rating, 64.9 completion percentage
• Week 2: -0.19 EPA per dropback, 61.1 passer rating, 55.2 completion percentage

Ryan Tannehill would have bettered his career-low 28.8 passer mark against the Saints in Week 1 if he had thrown every ball into the ground for an incompletion in Week 2. Seriously. In this case, his rating would have been 39.6. Luckily for the Titans, Tannehill improved his passer rating by nearly 100 points in the win over the Chargers.

The Cowboys’ defense ate up both New York quarterbacks in two weeks. Granted, in Week 2 it was Zach Wilson for the Jets and not Aaron Rodgers. Wilson’s passer rating of 38.1 was the second-worst in a game of his career. His -0.33 EPA rate was just his 10th-worst as the Jets’ starter. Wilson’s 44.4 completion percentage was his third-worst.

The NFL appears to be a little too big for the Panthers’ Bryce Young in two weeks. Outside of Carolina’s final possession, the Saints defense stunned Young in Week 2. Young completed 8 of 10 passes on the final drive with a TD pass to Adam Thielen to increase his passer rating and completion percentage in Week 2 (66.7). But Young has experienced the greatest growing pains so far among the three best QBs in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Will the real Joe Burrow please stand up? That could be a problem since he “tweaked” his calf again in the Bengals’ loss to the Ravens. What’s even more concerning is that Burrow struggled in Week 2, only being pressured on 18.6 percent of his dropbacks, making him the third-least-worst QB of the week. We all saw how confident Burrow was in this offense. No one seems to guess when this fox hole will return.

This is not the Trevor Lawrence anyone expected after a very strong second half of 2022. As a reminder, Lawrence ranked fourth in the league in the following categories from Weeks 10-18: EPA per dropback (0.16), passer rating (103.8). and completion percentage (68.5). He doesn’t come close to the first two rates and has a completion rate of 63.0 percent within two weeks.

Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett finished near the bottom of the league in Week 2 and in the standings. Quite a dilemma for the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively, considering both quarterbacks represent the present and future for the franchises. It’s hard to say which is the bigger concern since both have had problems. But Watson’s 55.1 completion percentage (31st overall) and gargantuan price tag likely raise even more alarm bells in Cleveland. Especially because Watson didn’t really make any progress from Year 1 to Year 2 with the Browns.

Week 3 EPA Matches

*Richardson’s status is unclear after he left Week 2 with a concussion.

(Photo: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)