Juliette Binoche and Benoit Magimel in “The Taste of Things”
Cannes Film Festival
PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, put together by Scott Feinberg, executive editor of awards coverage at , reflects Scott’s best attempt at predicting the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, rather than his personal preferences. He arrives at these predictions by relying on consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results from pre-Oscars awards shows, and the history of the Oscars themselves. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
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best picture
Frontrunner
Oppenheimer (Universal)
Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Poor Things (Searchlight)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
American fiction (Amazon/MGM)
Past Lives (A24)
The Remnants (Focus)
Maestro (Netflix)
The interest zone (A24)
Nyad (Netflix)
Major threats
Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
We are all strangers (Searchlight)
Dream scenario (A24)
Origin (Neon)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
American Symphony (Netflix)
Rustin (Netflix)
Possibilities
The Taste of Things (IFC)
Air (Amazon/MGM)
May December (Netflix)
Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
Stupid Money (Sony)
Fair Play (Netflix)
Can’t call yet
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Ferrari (neon)
The Iron Claw (A24)
The Murderer (Netflix)
Napoleon (Apple/Sony)
Priscilla (A24)
Best Director
Frontrunner
Greta Gerwig (Barbie) – Podcast
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Big threats
Celine Song (Past Lives)
Cord Jefferson (American fiction)
Bradley Cooper (maestro)
Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
Ava DuVernay (Origin)
Possibilities
Jimmy Chin & Chai Vasarhelyi (Nyad)
Todd Haynes (May December) – Podcast
Emerald Fennel (Saltburn)
Ben Affleck (Air) – Podcast
Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers and Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse)
Anh Hung Tran (The Taste of Things)
George C. Wolfe (Rustin)
Can’t call yet
Lightning Bazawule (The Color Purple)
Sofia Coppola (Priscilla)
Garth Davis (enemy)
Sean Durkin (The Iron Claw)
David Fincher (The Murderer)
Michael Mann (Ferrari)
Ridley Scott (Napoleon)
Best actor
Frontrunner
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Bradley Cooper (maestro)
Major threats
Jeffrey Wright (American fiction)
Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) – Podcast
Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
Matt Damon (air)
Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)
Possibilities
Alden Ehrenreich (Fair Play)
Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)
Benoît Magimel (The Taste of Things)
Gael Garcia Bernal (Cassandro)
Paul Dano (Dumb Money)
Taron Egerton (Tetris) – Podcast
Can’t call yet
Adam Driver (Ferrari)
Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)
Michael Fassbender (The Murderer)
Paul Mescal (enemy)
Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)
Best Actress
Frontrunner
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Emma Stone (Poor Things) – Podcast
Margot Robbie (Barbie) – Podcast
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro) – Podcast
Major threats
Natalie Portman (May December) – Podcast
Sandra Hülser (anatomy of a fall)
Greta Lee (Past Lives)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) – Podcast
Phoebe Dynevor (Fair Play)
Possibilities
Helen Mirren (Golda) – Podcast
Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)
Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)
Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders) – Podcast
Eve Hewson (Flora and son)
Can’t call yet
Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
Saoirse Ronan (Foe) – Podcast
Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
Best supporting actor
Frontrunner
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) – Podcast
Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) – Podcast
Big threats
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) – Podcast
Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) – Podcast
Charles Melton (May December)
John Magaro (Past Lives)
Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)
Chris Messina (air)
Possibilities
Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
Eddie Marsan (fair play)
Jon Bernthal (origin)
Richard E. Grant (Saltburn) – Podcast
Can’t call yet
Colman Domingo (The Color Purple)
Corey Hawkins (The Color Purple) – Podcast
Tahar Rahim (Napoleon)
Jeremy Allen White (The Iron Claw)
The best supporting actress
Frontrunner
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Sandra Hülser (The Zone of Interest)
Jodie Foster (Nyad) – Podcast
Julianne Moore (May December)
Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) – Podcast
Big threats
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Viola Davis (air)
Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) – Podcast
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Possibilities
Florence Pugh (Oppenheimer) – Podcast
Rhea Perlman (Barbie)
Niecy Nash-Betts (Origin)
Julianne Nicholson (dream scenario)
Can’t call yet
Halle Bailey (The Color Purple)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) – Podcast
HER (The Color Purple) – Podcast
Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) – Podcast
Lily James (The Iron Claw) – Podcast
Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon)
Tilda Swinton (The Murderer)
Maura Tierney (The Iron Claw)
Shailene Woodley (Ferrari)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunner
Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
Big threats
We’re All Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
Origin (Ava DuVernay)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord & Chris Miller)
Possibilities
Nyad (Julia Cox)
Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo & Lauren Schuker Blum)
The Bikeriders (Jeff Nichols)
Can’t call yet
The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
Ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin & Brock Yates)
Enemy (Garth Davis & Iain Reid)
The Murderer (Alexis Nolent & Kevin Walker)
Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunner
Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) – Podcast (Gerwig)
Past Lives (Celine Song)
The Leftovers (David Hemingson)
Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)
Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
Major threats
Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
The Teacher’s Lounge (İlker Çatak & Johannes Duncker)
Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
Air (Alex Convery)
Possibilities
May December (Sam Burch & Alex Mechanik)
Rustin (Dustin Lance Black & Julian Breece)
Cassandro (David Teague & Roger Ross Williams) – Podcast (Williams)
Flora and Son (John Carney)
Can’t call yet
The Iron Claw (Sean Durkin)
Napoleon (David Scarpa)
Best International Feature
Frontrunner
The Zone of Interest (UK)
The Taste of Things (France)
The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
Perfect Days (Japan)
20 days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Can’t call yet
Io Capitano (Italy)
Godland (Iceland)
Shayda (Australia)
Society of Snow (Spain)
Fallen leaves (Finland)
Blaga’s lessons (Bulgaria)
Four daughters (Tunisia)
About dry grasses (Türkiye)
Best Documentary
Frontrunner
American Symphony (Netflix)
Kokomo City (Magnolia)
The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
The Deepest Breath (Netflix)
Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
Major threats
20 days in Mariupol (PBS)
The Eternal Memory (MTV)
The Mission (Nat Geo)
Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) – Podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
Still (Apple) – Podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
Possibilities
Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
Every body (focus)
To Kill a Tiger (still looking for US distribution)
King Coal (still looking for US distribution)
The League (Magnolia)
Can’t call yet
aka Mr. Chow (still looking for US distribution)
Black Ice (Lionsgate)
A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
Copa 71 (still looking for US distribution)
Defiant (still looking for US distribution)
The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
Hollywoodgate (still looking for US distribution)
Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I am everything (Magnolia)
Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
Orlando, my political biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Magazine (MSNBC)
What the hell happened to blood, sweat and tears? (Abramorama)
While We Watched (PBS)
Your Fat Friend (still looking for distribution)
Best Animated Feature
Frontrunner
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Elemental (Pixar) – Podcast (Pete Docter)
The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)
Nimona (Netflix)
Major threats
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)
Can’t call yet
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Lion (Netflix)
Migration (lighting)
Robot Dreams (Neon)
Stop motion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)
Wish (Disney)