House Speaker Kevin McCarthy at the Capitol last Wednesday. WILL OLIVER (EFE)
The countdown is running. The United States’ new fiscal year begins October 1, and Congress has not yet passed the legislation allowing spending for the new year. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has failed to win the support of the hardline Republican wing for his proposals pushed by former President Donald Trump. The twenty most radical MPs are calling for drastic spending cuts, which neither some of their party colleagues nor the Senate with a Democratic majority want to accept. There is only this week left to reach an agreement that seems very difficult. Even the alternative of a temporary extension of the expenditure items is currently blocked, which could result in the so-called government shutdown, i.e. the cessation of some non-essential public services and the payment of salaries to civil servants. The White House is already preparing for the worst.
The most radical representatives were not satisfied with the formal opening of an investigation into President Joe Biden as a precursor to possible impeachment proceedings. McCarthy saw it as a price to pay to score points with these wayward representatives, but it didn’t help much. The speaker is hostage to the hardline wing of his own party, which already rebelled against him when he agreed with Biden to suspend the debt ceiling for two years. That agreement included some modest spending cuts and was a major victory for the tenant of the White House. The pact called for spending items to be approved for the new year, but when the time came, the radical members of Congress were unwilling to do so.
“They are going back to their old ways, they are breaking their commitment, they are threatening more cuts and they are threatening to shut down the government again,” Biden said in a recent speech outside Washington. This Saturday, at an awards ceremony organized by African-American congressmen, the president recalled that he had already reached an agreement with McCarthy. “Now a small group of extremist Republicans want to renege on the agreement, meaning all Americans could be forced to pay the price. So that we understand each other. If the government shuts down, that means members of the U.S. armed forces will still have to work, but without pay. A government shutdown could impact everything from food security to cancer research to Head Start programs [de educación y asistencia] for children. Funding the government is one of Congress’ most fundamental responsibilities. It’s time for Republicans to start doing the job America elected them to do. Let’s do it.”
The narrow majority that the Republicans have in the House of Representatives (222 to 212) forces McCarthy to go to extremes. The alternative would be a pact with the Democrats, but in this case the radicals are ready to challenge the head of their own parliamentary leader. Of the dozens of pieces of legislation necessary to maintain the normal functioning of government, McCarthy has failed to secure support for even the one that typically generates the most consensus, the law that funds the Defense Department. His proposal was rejected twice last week as some refused to continue supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion.
Republicans have begun working on a package of four bills in the House to fund the departments of Defense, Homeland Security, State and Foreign Operations and Agriculture, setting up a vote for Tuesday when lawmakers return, but eight bills remain pending no guaranteed support yet. It would normally take weeks or months of negotiations and changes to work through these rules, which must be agreed upon by both chambers and signed by the president, but time is of the essence.
Trump urges in the distance: “A very important deadline is approaching at the end of the month. Republicans in Congress can and should defund the armed government of corrupt Joe Biden, which refuses to close the border and treats half the country as enemies of the state. This is also the last chance to prevent these impeachment proceedings against me and other patriots. They failed with the debt limit, but they cannot fail now. Use the power of your wallet and defend the country,” he wrote on Thursday on Truth, his social network.
Join EL PAÍS to follow all the news and read without restrictions.
Subscribe to
With less than a week left, a temporary extension would be the only chance to avoid a government shutdown. Republicans have introduced a proposal in the House of Representatives to temporarily release spending until October 31, called a continuity resolution. However, this clashes with the hardliner movement (which demands that it include anti-immigration measures at the Mexican border and cuts to the Justice Department). and the FBI to obstruct investigations against Trump) and also has no Democratic support (because it implements spending cuts that go beyond the agreed level). There would be one final option: for the Senate to approve its own bipartisan continuity resolution (the hardliners have no influence over senators) and send it to the House, where it could be advanced with support from moderates in both parties. .
The Biden administration’s budget office has begun advising federal agencies to review and update their shutdown plans. Federal employees could be informed this week whether they will be temporarily laid off. Millions of federal workers, including military personnel, would not receive pay even if they continued to work until the spending was approved. Of course, social security pensions would continue to be paid. Federal agencies would suspend all actions not deemed essential, jeopardizing inspections, permits, grants and all types of policies.
The president and members of Congress will continue to work and be paid, but their employees who are not deemed essential would be suspended. Thanks to remaining funds and other items, the judiciary was able to continue working for a limited time. Although it is a focus of Republicans, funding for the three special counsels appointed by Merrick Garland (who are investigating Trump, Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden) would generally not be affected by a government shutdown because they are paid through a permanent and open-ended contract.
Essential programs
“A shutdown would have a devastating impact on critical programs that millions of people rely on for their health and safety,” said Bobby Kogan, senior director for federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress (CAP). “From Head Start preschools to clean water supplies, a government shutdown could jeopardize critical programs our communities rely on. A closure could create unnecessary uncertainty for millions of people who rely on these programs every day,” he added.
It would also have an impact on the economy, although this largely depends on its duration. “The likelihood of a government shutdown this fall is more likely than it seems, but we believe it will have only a small impact on activity – about 0.2 percentage points of annual GDP per week – and that half of that impact will be reversed “Overall it is unlikely to have a significant impact on GDP in the fourth quarter, but it comes at a time when we expect the economy to contract,” say analysts at Oxford Economics.
Paralyzing the government would prevent the release of employment and inflation statistics, which the Federal Reserve largely relies on to set interest rates. If it hurts activity and cools demand, it is possible that the central bank will avoid another change in its monetary policy and skip the 0.25 point increase it planned before the end of the year.
The gaps between approving budgets and the start of the fiscal year have led to government shutdowns since Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti argued in a series of opinions in 1980 and 1981 that government agencies could not operate lawfully without funding being approved at that time Only spending on functions essential to public safety and constitutional obligations is permitted.
Since 1976, there have been 22 funding interruptions, ten of which resulted in workers being laid off. Most of the significant closures have occurred since Bill Clinton’s presidency, when then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich and his conservative majority demanded budget cuts. But the longest period occurred between 2018 and 2019, when then-President Trump and Democrats in Congress entered a standoff over their demand for funding for a wall on the border with Mexico. It lasted 35 days, in the middle of the Christmas season, but there was only a partial shutdown because Congress had passed some budget legislation for some areas.
Follow all international information on Facebook and Twitteror in our weekly newsletter.
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits