Will the United States be able to pay its officials next week? The world’s largest economy is once again facing government paralysis due to a political deadlock, four months after it came close to defaulting.
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The 2024 budget must be passed by Congress before October 1st. But without an agreement between Democrats and Republicans, the federal administration will have to stop certain payments.
And the first victims would be the approximately two million federal civil servants whose salaries would be suspended for the duration of the shutdown.
Almost a year before the presidential election, in which Democratic President Joe Biden is running, the two parties are at loggerheads.
“Funding the government is one of Congress’ most fundamental responsibilities. “It’s time for Republicans to start doing the job America elected them to do,” Joe Biden thundered at a dinner on Saturday.
The White House added another layer on Monday, accusing “Republican extremists in the House of Representatives” of risking “endangering vital food assistance to nearly seven million vulnerable women and children” at the risk of ” to play with people’s lives.” , a potential paralysis of federal public services, effectively cutting that federal spending.
Following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington on Thursday, tensions over additional aid to Ukraine are heating up.
Both parties in the Senate are in favor of it. But in the House of Representatives, a handful of elected representatives from the Trump right are refusing to cast their vote.
“I will not vote to spend a single cent on the war in Ukraine. “I’m for America first,” said Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is close to Donald Trump, on Friday in a video filmed in front of a weight machine and posted on the social network X (formerly Twitter).
Also at a gym, with an American flag in the background, another elected official, Eli Crane, also released a video criticizing this aid: “People in my district and across the country are so tired of funding others .”
Recurring tensions
The necessary budget vote in Congress regularly results in a stalemate, with each camp raising the specter of cutting federal services to extract concessions from the other. Usually with a last minute solution.
But these recurring tensions are being exacerbated this year by polarization in Congress.
On the Senate side, the leaders of both parties, Chuck Schumer for the Democrats, Mitch McConnell for the Republicans, two veterans of politics, continue to discuss.
“(We) are both strongly in favor of helping Ukraine,” Chuck Schumer told CNN on Friday, saying he was “very, very optimistic.”
In a note published on Monday, Moody’s agency stressed that the lack of an agreement would “underline the weakness of governance and institutions in the United States in relation to fiscal policy” and “have a negative impact on the US national debt”, although The case is the last agency to give American debt the highest rating, AAA.
If no agreement is reached, a preliminary budget proposal could be adopted that would give elected officials several months to find common ground.
This looming paralysis comes just four months after the previous soap opera over the debt ceiling, the consequences of which would have been even more serious with a possible default by the United States.
As part of the agreement signed, Democrats agreed to limit certain spending, which should have allowed the budget phase to proceed smoothly.
But “today a small group of extremist Republicans do not want to respect the agreement and all Americans could have to pay the price,” complained Joe Biden on Saturday.
“We have to lock ourselves in a room and solve the problem,” Republican-elect Tony Gonzales said Sunday.
“I don’t want a shutdown, but I’m sure the country is heading towards it and everyone needs to prepare for it,” he added.
Expected consequences include that certain food aid checks may not be sent. Air traffic may be disrupted, national parks may not be maintained, etc. Civil servants deemed “non-essential” will be asked to stay home and will not receive their salaries until the issue is resolved.
The country has experienced four major shutdowns since 1976. The last and longest lasted more than a month in late 2018 and early 2019 and resulted in a $3 billion decline in United States GDP, according to the services. the Congressional Budget (CBO).