By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn
The Kraken struggled in every aspect last season.
The disruptive team, with unique scorers up and down the lineup, pushed its way into the playoffs and knocked off the defending Stanley Cup champions in the opening round. They made the hockey world think differently about their approach and what we all know about star power vs. depth.
Seattle made the most of its second NHL season, creating an identity and raising expectations along the way. But what comes next?
It’s difficult to predict a repeat when many didn’t expect their season to go as well as it did in the beginning. But the Kraken has raised the bar for itself. Now the pressure is on to show that Year 2 was a sign of what’s to come, rather than an exceptional season that can’t be repeated.
The projection
After a surprising playoff berth and an even more impressive playoff upset, there are likely many expecting big things from the Kraken this season. Consider The Model to be a bit more reserved at a 90-point projection.
While the Kraken could very well return to the playoffs, they need to prove that last season was no fluke. Scoring on 10.4 percent of your shots at five-on-five, an analytics-era record for a full season, doesn’t necessarily scream “repeatable performance.” This is especially true if the majority of the surplus was found at the end of the lineup. Seattle’s scoring rate was therefore five percentage points above expectations, and that’s typically a number that declines sharply from year to year, especially when the team (or in this case its players) doesn’t have a strong track record of finishing talent.
Some strange offseason decisions (Brian Dumoulin in, Daniel Sprong out) only worsened Seattle’s projections, further leading the Kraken to 10th place in the West. A playoff spot isn’t impossible; They will have a 39 percent chance of being firmly in the mix. But last season, a lot of things happened in a way that is unlikely to happen again.
Maybe the Kraken are the exception to the rule – their roster construction is different enough to believe that – but a small step back isn’t the end of the world for a franchise that’s in it for the long haul. Seattle could expect one of those this season.
The bar chart percentiles are based on each player’s offensive, defensive and net rating relative to their time on ice, meaning the starting forward is only compared to other starting forwards.
The strengths
When the Kraken’s second-year leap became too significant – and too obvious – to be ignored, a convenient narrative was attached to it, which also turned out to be correct; that the whole thing was driven by an unusually large number of capable, productive offensive players. By the end of the run, 13 players had scored 13 goals or more in the regular season and Seattle had made it to the second round of the playoffs.
Given all the variables at play, it would be unreasonable to expect a repeat in year three, but it also assumes the Kraken will be close enough; 10 players are projected to reach the 13-goal mark this season, and forwards 4-12 are expected to net higher relative to their spots in the lineup. Once again, the Kraken’s depth appears to be stronger than most.
The leader of this discussion is Jared McCann, who led Seattle with 40 goals and 70 points as he is on pace to finish fourth in the group in ice time. He had been an analytical darling in Pittsburgh, and last season, when he finally played primarily on the wing, his performance caught up. It would be right to expect a bit of a regression – his shooting percentage increased from 13-14 percent in the last two seasons to over 19 in 2022-23 – but McCann has the finishing talent and playmaking ability to help act as a counterweight. This performance helped him earn his debut in the player tier, landing him in 4C alongside a number of other elite supports.
Much of the rest of the Kraken commission team — Jordan Eberle, Andre Burakovsky, Jaden Schwartz, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Brandon Tanev and Eeli Tolvanen — are looking for repeats. Tolvanen in particular was free money. He was claimed off waivers from the Predators and posted the third-highest goals per 60 on the team (1.34). The same goes for Bjorkstrand, who fell into Seattle’s lap when Columbus needed cap space to accommodate Johnny Gaudreau and a few other players destined to contribute to one of the league’s worst teams. According to All Three Zones, Yanni Gourde could be Seattle’s best playmaker, leading the team in shots and chance assists per 60. He is also a defensive ace.
Burakovsky, on the other hand, is an interesting, slightly different case. A torn groin ended his season in February – Seattle had signed him in the offseason for five years and $5.5 million a year – after scoring a league-leading 13 goals and 39 points in 49 games. He delivered exactly what the Kraken expected – true top-six talent – and they ended up missing him terribly. He had already shown himself to be a highly efficient producer at five-on-five, averaging a top 2.5 points/60 in each of his last three seasons with Colorado, and he did it again (2.88 points /60) in a larger role with the Kraken. At the time of his injury, he also led Seattle in power play points with 13. Now, after a few setbacks and offseason surgery, he’s back in the mix, likely on the Kraken’s second line. It may be an increase in high-end productivity that Seattle lacked.
Of course, the easiest solution to this particular problem would be for Matty Beniers to take another huge step after his Calder-winning season as a first-line center on a playoff team. The model is fairly optimistic, as it tends to be biased toward young players who have room to grow, and predicts Beniers will score five more goals and grab 13 more assists, making him a 75-year-old in his second full NHL season. points player makes. A big jump in ice time toward 19 minutes would help if Beniers develops into Seattle’s lead dog.
Improved game dynamics and better shot volume at five-on-five are integrated into this forecast. Maybe Beniers is a true 16 percent shooter, or maybe he isn’t – the latter is more likely, so he’s in for a bit of a step backwards in the 2023-24 season. It’s not like a 75-point season is unreasonable either, as he’ll be playing most of this season as a 21-year-old. The question is how close a 75-point season is to his ceiling. We placed him in Tier 4A, home of low-end first-line centers, this season and received no backlash from NHL sources, largely due to his relative lack of creativity with the puck. Of course, the beauty of Beniers is that he is young enough to improve at practically everything, and that is exactly what he has done in the past.
The presence of Shane Wright is another potential bright spot despite the strange trajectory of his post-draft season. After playing in the NHL (eight games), AHL (eight games), OHL (20 games) and World Juniors (seven games), Wright will look to earn a spot with the Kraken in camp. Fortunately, he is also eligible to play a full season in the AHL if necessary. The Kraken would undoubtedly prefer him to be ready to contribute right away, but the important thing is that he just plays. A lot. Somewhere. Corey Pronman of The Athletic believes he’s still a quality center; According to Scott Wheeler, he is the No. 14 drafted prospect. In other words, the cap has come down, but he’s still an important part of what comes next.
Vince Dunn’s breakout season as a scoring first-pair defenseman was enough to earn him a four-year, $29.4 million extension – and more importantly, a spot in the Player Tiers. He’s expected to deliver even more of the same this season. Interestingly, Dunn’s point total, which is likely due to Seattle’s shooting percentage with him on the ice, remains essentially constant (56 to 54). If he’s in this area and handles difficult matches and big minutes once again, his reputation will improve even further. There’s no doubt about it: He’s Seattle’s best defender.
The weaknesses
We’ve already pointed out Seattle’s biggest weakness: its lack of top talent. As strong as Beniers’ prognosis may be, it still doesn’t make him an above-average top striker. He’s not the whole problem. Having a player like him as a 1C is not a death knell for any playoff contender. However, it’s an issue that needs to be adequately balanced across the board, and Seattle’s strength, as strong as it is, doesn’t kick in soon enough.
This is precisely why Wright’s development is so crucial; If the Kraken win Cups, they’ll likely need another center at least as good as Beniers to play behind him, and Alex Wennberg isn’t the one. He had 38 points in 82 games last season, with a 1.49 points/60 average, which puts him behind defenseman Justin Schultz, energy line winger Tanev and, somehow, Wright. This is all-defense production from the fourth line and center. Teddy Blueger, one of the current prototypes, averaged 1.51 points/60 last season with Pittsburgh and Vegas.
Wennberg’s expected goals rate with the Kraken was 20. His actual goals rate was 23. The list goes on, and while the Kraken are using him in a matchup role, that role would be better suited to someone like Gourde, who is stronger defensively and more involved can handle the puck. Given the depth that Seattle has, it’s strange that the team would devote so many minutes to one of their arguably weaker forwards. Either way, the point doesn’t change; Seattle has a hole in the middle. Wennberg appears to be starting the season on a par with Burakovsky, which could increase his point total, but probably won’t be enough.
GO DEEPER
Kraken’s big question: Will they have another balanced season or will real star power emerge?
For all of Seattle’s forward depth, they are thin on the blue line, a problem exacerbated by the departure of Carson Soucy to Vancouver. He’s not a flashy player; However, he was Seattle’s best at defending zone entries. Without him, only Adam Larsson has a positive projected defensive rating, and Larsson is a plus-2. Outside of Dunn, there is no needle mover in either direction on Seattle’s blue line.
To Larsson’s credit, his net rating was plus-6 last season, giving Seattle potential for a strong first pair. A repeat of last season would go a long way toward getting Seattle back to the playoffs. It’s just that Larsson has a history of inconsistencies, which makes him not the safest bet for top pair value. In the 2021-22 season, his net rating was minus-13 as he struggled under the weight of heavy minutes on an expansion team. The year before he was plus-2, compared to minus-4 in the 2019-20 season. Up and down, up and down.
The biggest problem on the blue line is that Soucy’s replacement on the third pair will likely be Brian Dumoulin, signed from UFA. One of the most underrated prospects of Pittsburgh’s last decade, the 32-year-old Dumoulin appears to have hit a wall, and that’s reflected in his projection. A net rating of minus 6 does not bode well; It’s also a glimpse into a model that gives more weight to last season for older players. When a veteran sees a sudden and precipitous decline, it’s usually a sign of things to come rather than a blip.
Dumoulin’s effectiveness as a puck mover has diminished, and his skating (once a strength, especially when combined with his 6-foot-1 frame) has become a liability. A setback is not impossible – Dumoulin is smart and he could benefit from a regular diet of minutes in the third pair – but it is also unlikely.
This ragtag defense will be tasked with protecting Seattle’s biggest weakness: the goaltender. The Kraken start the year with the second-worst goalie in the league and it’s hard to have too much confidence in any of their three options. Goaltending can make or break a season, and Seattle’s playoff hopes rest on Philipp Grubauer not failing.
The wild card
Can you trust Philipp Grubauer as the real No. 1 in Seattle?
If you want to predict what Grubauer will do for Seattle next season, good luck. For the last two years he has traveled all over the map with the Kraken.
In his debut season, no goalkeeper had a worse save percentage than expected than Grubauer, at minus 31.5. He rebounded last season with 4.9 goals saved and then stole the show in the first round against Colorado, the defending champion and his former team. Everything was fine until he came back down to earth against Dallas with a below-average .873 save percentage.
Goalkeepers are always difficult to predict. Nothing is off the table, neither good nor bad. After the very best goalkeepers, it’s difficult to fully trust anyone, and Grubauer finds it particularly difficult to trust given how extreme his results have been. It’s not wrong to feel some optimism after last year’s playoffs, but the lurking doubts about 2021-22 remain.
But it is possible that the model is a little too harsh on Grubauer because of this. He’s historically been a goalie who needed an adjustment period, and the early expansion chaos probably wasn’t the friendliest context for that. While he may have allowed 31.5 goals above expected in his first season with Seattle, 26 of them came in the first half of the season. Since then, he has been a completely average goalie for the Kraken.
However, “exactly average” is not a convincing endorsement, nor is it far from its forecast. With Seattle facing a reality check this season, Grubauer’s return as an above-average starter could be just what the Kraken need to return to the playoffs.
It’s possible, we just can’t trust him with that.
The best case
Beniers’ star power leads an offense that can once again rely on all four lines to contribute. Dunn proves his breakthrough wasn’t a mistake and looks like a real No. 1. Grubauer handles the situation as the team’s starter and helps the Kraken advance deep into the postseason.
The worst case
The bottom six can’t keep up with last year’s standings, and the top six look paltry without them. Wright can’t make it at the NHL level and his development stalls. Dunn immediately looks overpaid and the blue line lacks a real attacking threat. Despite the defense’s best efforts, Seattle can’t buy a save and becomes a boring club outside of the playoffs.
The final result
Seattle is built differently. The Kraken are a team with very few, if any, black holes on their roster; the best embodiment of next-man-up in the league. They throw four lines well and have the talent to do so effectively.
This lack of star power makes them difficult to project properly, as has been the case in each of the last two seasons, where the Kraken have operated at two extremes: really bad and really good.
This year we expect the Kraken to find its level and be truly mediocre. It’s possible that their unique roster will prove us wrong again, but we’ll have to see it to believe it given how and why Seattle was successful last season.
References
How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty
resources
Ice hockey is changing
Natural statistics trick
Hockey reference
NHL
All three zones track by Corey Sznajder
Read the other 2023-24 season previews here.
(Photo by Vince Dunn and Jared McCann: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)