Every fantasy manager wants to have a trick up his sleeve later in the draft – a low-risk, high-reward pick. This is where sleeper picks come into play.
There is no exact science to detecting them, but our starting point for this exercise was a low cadre ratio. To even be considered for this sleeper list, we were currently only looking at players below the 30 percent roster threshold on Yahoo.
Mattias Ekholm, D, EDM | 28% Yahoo
Ekholm’s game isn’t particularly flashy, but he’s all-around effective. That was true for a struggling Predators team and a fast-moving Oilers club at the deadline – Edmonton proved to be an excellent landing spot for him. Next to Evan Bouchard, a defenseman who brings a lot of shooting volume, you can expect a five-on-five result. While Ekholm probably won’t help you on the power play, he will contribute in other categories that defenders tend to rely on. This is a solid late-round pick to bolster defensive depth.
Connor Brown, RW, EDM | 26% Yahoo
Considering his performance bonus structure, the Brown signing has the potential to be one of the most cost-effective players in the 2022-23 offseason. With his rush-based approach and playmaking ability, the striker has a lot of pizzazz in his game. The big question is whether there is a rust factor to worry about. But a spot in the Oilers’ top six could help put that behind them sooner rather than later. This is someone who shouldn’t be underestimated, especially playing alongside his former junior teammate Connor McDavid for an extended period of time this season.
Michael Matheson, D, MTL | 24% Yahoo
The #BadTeamEffect can be real. While we don’t recommend looking for depth players on a team that’s expected to finish low in the table, those in crucial roles can be of great value. The same goes for Matheson, who was solid on both ends at five-on-five last year and is a good PP1 quarterback. With a healthy Cole Caufield, there’s a better chance he’ll pick up some points because of the lead.
Andrew Mangiapane, LW/RW, CGY | 19% Yahoo
A coaching change couldn’t come soon enough in Calgary. The offense was stifled and the mood throughout the lineup was off, leaving Mangiapane one of the few skaters in line for a rebound. If he can continue his breakout season in 2021/22, expect plenty of quick goals from the experienced winger.
Jonathan Drouin, LW, COL | 15% Yahoo
Although his game has some flaws, Drouin has proven that he has top-notch skills. With a team as strong as the Avalanche, he should be in the ideal position to maximize his strengths and hide any weaknesses. That’s even more true if he ends up at the top with Nathan MacKinnon, who was influential in signing this free agent. Colorado has the spot for Drouin in the top six, he just needs to stay there for minutes.
Sam Montembeault, MTL, G | 13% Yahoo
If your league doesn’t count wins or you’re simply not worried about the one category of a second or third goalie, then Montembeault could be a good option. The Canadiens kept him busy last year, but he withstood that demanding workload. If he can prove the season wasn’t just a fluke, he could push for more starts and truly become the team’s best prospect this year.
Anthony Beauvillier, LW/RW, VAN | 12% Yahoo
Throughout his career, Beauvillier struggled with consistency. But he got off to a solid start in Vancouver alongside Elias Pettersson and Andrei Kuzmenko, and that could be a recipe for success going forward. The trio scored 59 percent of expected goals in their minutes and outscored opponents at five-on-five. If this is a sign of what’s to come, he should be a solid producer worth taking late in the draft.
Charlie Coyle, C, BOS | 11% Yahoo
The Bruins have not yet made any major additions at center to replace Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci in the lineup. Coyle is a player who will benefit from this as it should cement him in the top six midfield. A likely landing spot is alongside Brad Marchand and Jake DeBrusk, assuming Pavel Zacha moves to center to skate alongside David Pastrnak. If that’s the case, it’s very likely he’ll get a scoring boost.
Matias Maccelli, LW, ARI | 8% Yahoo
Maccelli’s relatively successful rookie season makes him a player to keep an eye on, especially as the Coyotes improve around him with the arrival of Logan Cooley and free agent signing Jason Zucker. Some power play opportunities and potential top-six minutes with some of the Coyotes’ biggest offensive threats should help extend his impact. The only downside is that he isn’t the most common scorer, but he has a direct impact on the team’s offense with his primary passing game.
Anton Lundell, C, FLA | 7% Yahoo
Lundell is developing into Aleksander Barkov Lite and could have a breakout season if he plays more meaningful minutes. Maybe he could establish himself as the team’s 2C, which would mean minutes with Matthew Tkachuk. If not, that’s added value for Sam Bennett, who can get involved with a second score and a physical advantage.
Thomas Novak, C, NSH | 6% Yahoo
With Andrew Brunette on the bench, the Predators should have more offensive power this season. That bodes well for players who began to shine last year despite the team’s style. Novak was a highlight, even after Filip Forsberg’s injury in Nashville. In 51 games, he scored 3.45 points per 60 in all situations, ranking 20th in the league. This showed how efficient he was in his minutes. At five-on-five, his puck-moving skills helped add some pizzazz to the team’s typically dull rush game. This is something that should only grow under new leadership.
Joel Hofer, STL, G | 4% Yahoo
This may be the biggest part of this sleeper selection as Hofer is currently a backup goalkeeper. But Jordan Binnington isn’t the most reliable starter, which only makes the position more volatile than it already is. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Hofer started pushing for playing time. In deeper leagues he could be a very sneaky late addition. For everyone else, maybe he’s just a player to keep an eye on as the season begins.
Yegor Sharangovich, C, CGY | 3% Yahoo
After a solid 2021-22, Sharangovich simply wasn’t very fantasy relevant last year. But a move to Calgary could change that, especially if he ends up on a line with Jonathan Huberdeau and Elias Lindholm. If he moves down the lineup at all, his value will subsequently decline since he isn’t a big play-driver. But his play in the top six should make him a second-tier scorer on any team’s roster.
Recognitions: Evan Rodrigues, Ryan Johansen, Kent Johnson, Gabriel Vilardi, Logan Cooley, Josh Norris, Dmitry Orlov
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, AllThreeZones and NaturalStatTrick. This story is based on shot-based metrics; Here is an introduction to these numbers.
(Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)