Previously in this section we highlighted Taylor Swift and her many wonderful songs. Unfortunately, it appears that Ms. Swift has become popular. Who knew?? There’s no doubt their success is entirely the result of my last best bets column – and the wins were the result of reciprocity, as a 3-2 win in Week 3 puts us in the black for three weeks for the year.
We want to keep it that way, so it’s probably best to stick with the musical theme, right? Maybe we can get Travis’ brother and podcast co-host Jason Kelce together. It can’t be a Swift-like match, however, because as anyone who listens to the highly entertaining episode “New Heights” knows, Jason is married.
So how about a super weird, localized band? And by super weird I mean Ween, of course. Formed in Philadelphia, they have songs like “Freedom of ’76” (with lyrics like “‘Mannequin’ was filmed at Woolworth’s” and references to “Boyz II Men”). And unlike Taylor Swift, they won’t betray Philly and suddenly become Chiefs fans.
They’re so Philly that they announced a show in the City of Brotherly Love a year in advance, where they’ll supposedly perform a full-length “Chocolate and Cheese.” See you there and maybe Jason will join us.
Speaking of Philly, I expect the Eagles to go undefeated this week and cover the 8-point lead against the Commanders. You can check out all of my picks at SportsLine (first month for $1 with promo code PICK) and my full Week 4 picks can be found here. And of course, you can watch our Pick Six NFL Week 4 NFL Picks podcast live at 2:00 pm ET on our YouTube page or listen anytime wherever you get your podcasts.
Now for the football tips. Let’s stay hot!
Jordan Love has been pretty good through the first three weeks of the season. This Cindy story could end in a pretzel, but it probably won’t happen at home in a short week with Christian Watson and Aaron Jones coming back. The bigger problems in this particular game are David Bakhtiari and De’Vondre Campbell; If the Packers can’t defend or stop the run, that’s a problem against Detroit. But I’m not entirely sure Jared Goff will be elite at this spot, especially with the Lions having a poor matchup in the secondary. If Detroit runs the ball well, the Lions will win. If not, the Packers are suddenly a strong NFC title contender.
Everyone and their brother is desperate to bet on Miami, and they can’t understand why the Dolphins aren’t favored after losing 70 to the Broncos last week. That’s a fair question, but it clearly ignores how good Buffalo continues to be. The bills are good. Josh Allen is good. The Dolphins are really, really good and Mike McDaniel might be the best coach in the NFL *right now*. That being said, Sean McDermott is currently in his pocket defensively and Allen has taken the Jets lesson from Week 1 to heart. If Vic Fangio really turns it around, then tip your cap. But here everyone will support the Dolphins and be shocked if the Bills are the better team. Well, not everyone.
Chiefs (-9.5) at Jets
It’s pretty crazy to act like there are “layers,” but sometimes there’s a game of “Taylor Swift has to show up in New York” with Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes trying to show something and Andy Reid is determined to keep the low score. Everyone was focused on Swiftie’s stuff, but the real thinkers remembered that Mahomes was injured and dealing with an ankle injury. The sub is a cracker here due to Reid’s knowledge of the pitch. The Chiefs defense was great and they won’t give up more than 10 points. If you think Kansas City can’t score 21 points, just blank them out.
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You shouldn’t bet on this game, but my parents will be in Charlotte for this matchup. And I’ll be damned if I don’t fade Kirk Cousins — even at 1 p.m. — just to hope my family can watch some good football. Also…the Vikings defense isn’t good, they won’t pressure Carolina as much as people expect, and the Panthers offensive line will/should be motivated by last week’s eight (EIGHT!) false starts. This is a quietly desperate Panthers team – even if the Vikings are better, they’ll find a way to keep Carolina within a field goal.
The Bucs were crushed by the Eagles in inclement weather on Monday night, but the Saints suffered an even worse defeat on Sunday, blowing a big lead over the Packers while also losing Derek Carr indefinitely with a sprained AC joint. Carr is dealing with the injury “week to week” and I don’t expect him to play, making this a revenge match for Jameis Winston! Or the Buccaneers, depending on how you look at it? Tampa’s defense is capable of exploiting mistake-prone quarterbacks, and Buddy is error-prone to Jameis. Baker Mayfield will have more time against New Orleans, he’s on the floor, and the Bucs will keep this within a field goal.