A blitzkrieg after thirty years of conflict. Baku won in one day of fighting against the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-majority enclave on the territory of Azerbaijan. Despite calls from Azerbaijani authorities to stay, the outcome of the conflict led tens of thousands of Armenians to hastily leave out of fear for their lives. Blown-up houses, frightened faces… Before setting off into exile, many of them made a point of burning their personal belongings.
Scenes set in a former USSR satellite, reflecting the plight of Ukrainians following the attack by their Russian neighbor in February 2022. Except, according to specialists, the comparison ends there. 20 Minutes asked her why Europeans were more cautious about this conflict.
Between Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh geopolitical problems that cannot be “transferred”.
“The situation is completely incomparable for several reasons,” says Didier Billion, deputy director of Iris*. Geopolitical issues cannot be transferred. It is not a country the size of Russia invading a sovereign country. The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was never recognized.”
Already mobilized by the war in Ukraine, the 27 find themselves in an uncomfortable position in the face of this conflict, marked by two major wars (1988-1994, 2020): on the one hand, they recognize that Nagorno-Karabakh as it is is part of Azerbaijani territory The Armenian Prime Minister himself recognized this last May; on the other hand, they denounce the lightning attack of the last few days. “In Ukraine, Europe played the game politically by sending weapons and money. There she was less involved and feels a kind of relief about the end of the conflict,” analyzes Taline Ter-Minassian, professor of contemporary Russian history at Inalco and a specialist on the conflict.
The EU has strengthened its energy partnership with Baku
Especially since our expert reminds that Europe has strengthened its energy partnership with Azerbaijan after stopping its Russian gas imports: Baku has committed to supplying 20 billion cubic meters of gas to the EU annually in 2022 at least until 2027. A decision that was criticized by around fifty French elected officials from all sides had accused the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, of “weakening” Europe. “In this delicate energy situation, the EU is not in a strong position to condemn Baku and consider sanctions,” explains Didier Billion.
Given the divisions and conflicting interests, Europeans appear to agree on at least one thing: the humanitarian response. After providing 5.5 million euros at the beginning of the year, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna announced additional aid worth 7 million euros on Thursday. The EU has also provided €5 million to help refugees heading to Armenia and vulnerable people in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Given the threat to human rights, Brussels called for a UN mission “in the coming days”. A sufficient initiative to ensure respect for international law in the region? “The situation is emotional, but many Western countries risk moving quickly to something else,” predicts Didier Billion. “In fact, the international community is showing great cynicism,” says Gaïdz Minassian, professor of international relations, in an interview with Public Senate. We are witnessing a terrible inability of major powers to enforce international law. »
* Institute for International and Strategic Relations