Inflation in the United States accelerated for the second straight month, driven by increases in gasoline prices at the pump, the Fed’s preferred measure, according to the PCE index released by the Commerce Department on Friday.
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Inflation stood at 3.5% over a year, compared to 3.4% in July (data revised upwards). Over one month alone, the price increase is expected to be 0.4%, compared to 0.2% in July.
But excluding volatile energy and food prices, so-called core inflation slowed to 3.9% over a year, compared with 4.3% in July, the lowest in almost two years.
PCE inflation is the one that the US Central Bank (Fed) is particularly eyeing and wants to reduce to 2.0% within a year. It will be published later in the month as another index, the CPI, which relates to pensions and to which they are indexed.
Both of these measures moved in the same direction in August, as the consumer price index also posted a second-month increase of 3.7% year-on-year, consistent with a slowdown in underlying inflation.
Additionally, American household spending slowed last month, rising 0.4% after rising 0.9% in July. Their income started to rise again, up +0.4% versus +0.2%.
At the end of its last meeting on September 20, the Fed appeared less optimistic than before about the development of inflation, which may slow less quickly than expected.
It therefore announced that it would keep tariffs at their current level, the highest in 22 years, but forecasts that tariffs will continue to rise until the end of 2023 and expects them to remain higher in 2024 than previously expected.
The weakening of inflation could be slower than hoped. After a year-long slowdown, prices rose again in the US this summer, driven in particular by the rise in global oil prices.