25 parties are running in the elections, nine have a chance of entering parliament, only four of them support sanctions against Russia, according to the European media network Euractiv. This is one of the reasons why elections in the country of 5.4 million people are not just watched internally. A government formed by Fico could have an impact on EU policy towards Ukraine, as the former prime minister deliberately used pro-Russian and anti-European tones in the election campaign.
Fico’s critics are very concerned that, as in Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, with the return of politician Smer, cronyism and corruption will become common again, combined with attacks on the judiciary and the media. of social communication. Military aid to Ukraine could also be reduced. So far, Slovakia has positioned itself as a strong supporter of Ukraine.
APA/AFP/Vladimir Simicek Slovakia’s political direction is decided by the heads of the two leading parties, Simecka (left) and Fico (right).
“Total distrust” in politics
Given a chaotic government following the last elections in 2020, the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, most Slovaks have “complete distrust” of politics, Katarina Klingova of the NGO Globsec told the Guardian. Fico presents itself as a stability factor with simple answers for times of crisis.
The spread of Russian disinformation and propaganda is high, Klingova said. In Slovakia there are more than 280 websites and portals, as well as 1,700 Facebook pages and groups that spread false information. There is a “very pessimistic mood” in Slovakia, added Slovak sociologist Olga Gyarfasova during a discussion at the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM) shortly before the elections. Trust in politics has fallen dramatically. For 80 percent, the country is heading in the wrong direction.
more on the subject
Elections put Slovakia at a crossroads
Electoral victory alone is not a decision
Many observers say it is difficult to predict the outcome of the election. In the days before the elections there were still postponements due to numerous undecided voters. People on the urban center-right spectrum would move away from smaller parties that may not meet the five percent threshold for entry into parliament and toward the PS, notes Slovak expert Milan Nic of German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).
In any case, it is not enough to win the elections, says Gyarfasova, because each election winner depends on a coalition. No party is strong enough to form a government alone. Smer and PS remained at the top for months. The Hlas party, which was still leading the polls at the beginning of the year, has now fallen to third place.
Former politician Smer as kingmaker
With Hlas, Fico’s former party colleague and former prime minister Peter Pellegrini split from Smer. The party plays an important role as a kingmaker. It is unclear whether Hlas prefers to join a coalition with Smer or the liberal PS.
APA/AFP/Vladimir Simicek Former politician Smer Pellegrini and his new party could be decisive in the formation of a coalition
In any case, Fico has better options when looking for a partner than PS president Michal Simecka. Fico’s possible coalition partners include the far-right Republika and the right-wing Slovak National Party (SNS). However, there are uncertainties about whether the SNS will reach the necessary five percent threshold. In polls it is between five and six percent.
It could be even closer for the right-wing populist party “We are a family” (Sme Rodina, SR) – it reached four to five percent in the polls. Depending on the survey, the right-wing extremist Republika reaches between five and eight percent. Depending on the small parties that manage to reach parliament, this could have a strong impact on the options for coalitions.
Expert: Radicalization in the nationalist camp
Pellegrini had previously ruled out a coalition with the far-right Republika, but the party was more likely to lean towards Smer, said Slovak expert Zuzana Zavarska of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW): “It is not even clear within the party “To what extent do they want to take a different direction than Fico.” Basically, Hlas is considered social democrat, pro-Ukraine and friendly to the EU.
more on the subject
Progressive’s strongest challenger to Fico
When Hlas was even higher in the polls, there was speculation about a coalition with the PS. As poll numbers have dropped, the likelihood of this has decreased. Furthermore, according to observers, there has recently been a rapprochement between Hlas and Smer. Hlas voters also prefer Smer over PS.
Slovak political scientist Grigorij Meseznikov notes an unprecedented radicalization of the nationalist party camp. Another problem is that the right-wing extremist party Republika presents itself in such a way that it is not perceived as such. Although Fico is trying to avoid Republika, the option still exists.