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BRATISLAVA – Slovaks are heading to the ballot box on Saturday in a closely watched election that has the potential to complicate the West’s response to Ukraine and set the country on a more illiberal, autocratic course.
The frontrunner in most polls is by far 59-year-old Robert Fico, a populist former prime minister who was forced from power in disgrace five years ago and has attempted a comeback in a campaign rife with conspiracy theories, peppered with pro-Russian and anti-American discourse.
Who is Robert Fico? Pro-Russian populist favored in Slovakia elections.
A victory for Fico’s Smer party would be another sign that Europe is turning to populist forces that have benefited from rising living costs and fears of the Ukraine war. It could also lead to an ally becoming a spoilsport in the Western response to Ukraine, with Fico threatening to cut off arms supplies and block European Union sanctions against Russia.
During a toxic campaign, Fico capitalized on the country’s long-standing polarization toward Moscow and deep dissatisfaction with the previous government by parroting Russian propaganda and blaming “Ukrainian Nazis” for starting the war.
But the election remains too close to call. Almost tied with Fico’s party in the polls is Progressive Slovakia, led by Michal Simecka, 39, a former journalist who, if he comes to power, would become the country’s youngest prime minister ever. He has a completely different vision of a pro-European, liberal Slovakia and was able to make gains in the polls at the last minute.
A latest IPSOS poll released on Wednesday showed Fico’s Smer party with 20.6 percent support, compared to 19.8 percent for Progressive Slovakia.
“It will be close, but decency can prevail,” Simecka wrote in a Facebook post this week.
Whoever comes out on top will have the first chance to put together a coalition government amid a fractured political scene in which no party is expected to win more than a quarter of the vote. Much could depend on a number of smaller parties that are close to achieving the minimum 5 percent of votes required to enter parliament.
“In these elections, Slovakia can choose a European, dignified future instead of chaos and isolation,” said Simecka.
Meanwhile, in a capitalized message on his page, Fico criticized Ukraine for its decision to take legal action in response to Slovakia’s ban on its grain imports: “The world is starting to get fed up with Zelensky and Ukraine for being ungrateful and are ungrateful.” STILL UNSATISFIED!”
A pro-Russian wave in Slovakia could endanger European unity in Ukraine
Simecka has warned that a fourth term for Fico could result in Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gaining an ally in the EU, which could have a “significant impact” on the bloc’s ability to supply more weapons to Ukraine and new rounds of sanctions to impose.
While a Fico government would mark a shift in Ukraine policy toward a neighbor that is a leader in supplying tanks and heavy weapons, analysts say the impact of its threat to cut off arms shipments could be limited. Fico has only made it clear that he will no longer send weapons from Slovakia’s already depleted military stocks and has refrained from threatening to stop deliveries from the country’s weapons manufacturers, which supply Ukraine with desperately needed artillery shells.
“I don’t buy the completely bleak scenarios if Fico forms a government,” said Milan Nic, an analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, who pointed out that Slovakia is more dependent on the EU than Hungary, while Fico consumes more is investigated by his employees at home.
“He is much more focused on the domestic front than Mr Orban,” said Nic. “That doesn’t mean they won’t help each other.”
Analysts believe Fico’s top priority is to end the corruption investigations that have dogged him and his associates since he was forced to resign following the murder of an investigative journalist.
Jan Kuciak, who was fatally shot along with his fiancée Martina Kusnirova, had been investigating links between the Italian mafia and Fico associates.
How Slovakia withstood the murder of a journalist and kicked out its prime minister
Fico’s campaign also focused on immigration and cost of living, as Slovakia has the highest inflation in the euro area, almost twice the average of other countries that use the euro.
Simecka, meanwhile, pledged to maintain the country’s support for Ukraine and accelerate its green transition. He said he would not work with Fico or the far right, but was otherwise open to a range of coalition partners.
“For me the priority is to prevent Robert Fico from forming a government,” Simecka told Portal this month. “You have to make compromises.”