FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
KYIV – Is Ella Belgiova, director of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences and demographer, safe? A few days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke of 71,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since the start of the war. Kiev doesn’t give any numbers, how many do you think there are?
“One hundred thousand. And only in the military.”
How do you calculate it?
“The official data on deaths is secret. Then we have to make do with the estimates. At the Ptoukha National Institute we used the numbers of borders, births (which remained public) and many other indicators, including cell phone SIM cards. To avoid counting those who simply carry two cell phones with them as two people, we also have access to geolocation. All in all, unfortunately, we have a hundred thousand victims. Masculine and in the most productive moment of life.”
And what about civilians?
“We need to understand whether my husband, who died of a heart attack during a bombing raid, should be considered a war victim or not.” But the biggest problem is the counts in the occupied territories. The black hole is Mariupol, and the siege may have resulted in tens of thousands of victims. Maybe we’ll never know. However, the amount remains well below that of the military.”
Professor Lebanonva says terrible things with complete calm when she talks about numbers, which are her working tool, neither good nor bad. However, he gets excited when he has to give what he reads in the graphics a name: “depopulation.”
“If the war ends in 2025, we estimate that there will be between 26 and 32 million Ukrainians in 2033. We cannot close this gap because there are too many unknowns. How many refugees and emigrants will return from abroad? Will there be security and economic recovery? These variables are unpredictable and will influence the decisions of large social groups.”
In 1993, two years after the dissolution of the USSR, Ukraine had a population of 52.3 million. According to your worst case scenario, could it be half as much 40 years later in 2033?
“We were already heading in this direction before the war. For years we have been experiencing a decline in birth rates and an outflow of the population. The birth rate in 2021 was only 1.2 children per woman and, to make matters worse, there were 3 million emigrants. It’s not like you Italians would be much better off without immigration. The demographic crisis affects all of Europe, but with the war it has become a tragedy in our country. In 2022 the birth rate has fallen to 0.9 and next year I expect it to be 0.7. Then the refugees came along.”
That they could return.
“Fortunately there are fewer refugees in Europe than the seven million I hear.” There will be a maximum of 4 million, to which we must add 1.2 million in Russia and another million between Britain and North America. The problem is that they are mostly women and children and it is difficult for men to get pregnant because of the long distance.”
It is also difficult to think about giving birth to children in a country that is at war.
“The will counts, but so do the statistical trends. The age groups most decimated by the fighting are those of childbearing age, with consequences for the population curve that will last for decades. People aged 20 to 64 will decline by 15%. Women at their most fertile age between 20 and 34 years by 11%. With these numbers we won’t be able to get out of the demographic winter.”
Nothing positive?
“Ukrainians have a strong connection to their homeland. In the first months of the war, two hundred thousand men returned from abroad to fight. It is to be expected that with peace many of the refugees and emigrants will return, but it is essential to win the post-war period.”
What do you mean?
“That we need security and economic conditions that can convince the majority of the 9 million Ukrainians abroad.” Our national treasure. 70% of refugee women have a university education; they represent the best in society. When the fighting is over, the insecurity will continue and it will be their husbands who will join them abroad. Not the other way around. It would be deep darkness for the country.”