The Slovaks have to choose between two opposing models this Saturday. The citizens of this country of almost 5.5 million people are called upon to take part in parliamentary elections that have become a symbol of the EU. With their ballot they will decide whether a government will remain in the European and NATO consensus while Ukraine, its eastern neighbor, is at war, or whether it will return the populist and nationalist Robert Fico to power.
The former three-time prime minister – whom everyone declared politically dead when he lost in 2020 after being forced to resign amid massive protests over the murder of an investigative journalist and his partner in 2018 – has returned to the election as the favorite in the polls. . During the campaign, Fico, 59, pledged to end military aid to Kiev and denounced sanctions against Russia, in line with the EU leader closest to Moscow, Hungarian ultra-conservative Viktor Orbán. Opposite him is Michal Simecka, a 39-year-old liberal, pro-European and pro-Ukrainian MEP. The leader of Progresívne Slovensko (Progressive Slovakia, PS) comes into the electoral assembly on a very equal footing with Fico, but has fewer opportunities to form a government.
For historical reasons, Slovakia is one of the most pro-Russian societies in Central and Eastern Europe. According to a study by the international think tank Globsec, only 40% of Slovaks believe that Russia is primarily responsible for the invasion of Ukraine, compared to 85% of Poles. Robert Vass, president of this organization in Bratislava, explains that Russia has found fertile ground for propaganda in the country with a large disinformation network that was strengthened during the war. In the spring, authorities arrested a journalist who reportedly received money from a Russian Embassy employee, a fake news machine. “Slovak society believes in misinformation and conspiracy theories,” Vass said in a video call.
Pro-Russian propaganda is spreading on social networks, particularly Facebook, and on conspiracy websites, but also at rallies of the far right and a candidate seeking a fourth term in office. “I will say it loud and clear: the war in Ukraine did not start yesterday or last year. “It started in 2014 when Ukrainian Nazis and fascists started murdering Russian citizens in Donbass,” Fico, leader of the Smer-SD (Slovak Social Democratic Direction), said at an election rally in Topolcany, his hometown, in August.
The Slovak political landscape is highly fragmented and has seen the deaths of four prime ministers in five years. The country is emerging from a turbulent legislative period of the center-right coalition government led by OLáNo (Ordinary People and Independent Personalities), which was marked by chaos and infighting during the crises of the pandemic and war. These elections, brought forward after the no-confidence motion that toppled the executive in December and the prime minister’s resignation in May, will feature up to six new parties and several former heads of government. Some of these formations will be crucial in forming the executive, but recent polls show that five of the top ten candidates only reach the threshold of 5% of the minimum votes (7% for coalitions) to achieve parliamentary representation.
A violent campaign
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The campaign was “the most violent” that Viera Zuborova, analyst and research director at the Bratislava Institute of Politics, has ever seen. “The amount of hate speech, fake news and misinformation was enormous. This had never happened before.” And it wasn’t just verbal attacks. In the middle of the month, former Prime Minister Igor Matovic – who served between 2020 and 2021 until his resignation over the purchase of Russian vaccines – attended a Smer event with a megaphone and described the party as mafia-like. Former Interior Secretary Robert Kalinak confronted him. The altercation led to a fight with punches and kicks. In the face of chaos and uncertainty, Fico promises his voters security and stability.
Erik Szedely, an analyst at consulting firm Fipra, explains that the extremely long campaign revolved around issues as diverse as bear attacks; mortgages and bank profits; Migrant and LGTBI rights. Migration, which is not normally a problem in Slovakia as a transit country, has become a key issue in the last month due to an increase in arrivals from Hungary, prompting some to see Orbán’s hand in promoting Fico. After Germany announced controls on the border with Poland this week, Warsaw announced that it would also do the same on the Slovakian border.
Foreign policy does not typically decide elections, but parties have portrayed it as a cause and solution to internal problems, as analyst Alena Kudzko writes for the Carnegie Europe think tank. Pro-Europeans like the PS and the incumbent technocratic government argue that Slovakia would be in a dangerous and unstable situation if Ukraine loses the war. Smer and his potential allies blame the conflict and sanctions against Russia for inflation (which is around 10%) and the cost of living crisis.
Although Smer defines himself as a social democrat and defends the economic intervention of the state and the rights of workers or pensioners, his social policy is conservative and restrictive towards civil rights. “He has no ideology, he is pragmatic and manages to break taboos such as anti-globalism and anti-liberalism,” says Zuborova. In the classic search for populists’ enemies and rivals, Fico’s party has focused on the EU, NATO, philanthropist George Soros, migrants, the LGTBI collective and even President Zuzana Caputova, “progressive, liberal, pro-European and female.” “, as the analyst defines it. The leader, who has faced harassment and threats, has announced she will not run for re-election and has sued Fico for defamation for accusing her of treason and being a United States agent.
Critics of the SMER leader believe he is returning to politics to take over the interior and justice ministries, which would threaten the rule of law. Jan Kuciak, the journalist whose assassination led to the downfall of Fico’s government, investigated the executive branch’s ties to the Italian mafia. According to the Slovak press, cited by Portal, 40 people close to Smer have been convicted of corruption and other crimes and another 130 are being investigated or tried. Fico was even indicted last year for using information from police and prosecutors to discredit his political rivals.
Alliances
According to the latest surveys, Smer and PS go to the polls practically on a par with around 20% voting intention, which means the second party is even slightly ahead. To govern, Fico’s party could reach agreements with Hlas (Voice), a splinter of his party led by former Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini, more moderate and pro-European and third in the polls (15%). But it could also try to reach an agreement with the nationalists of the SNS and the far right of the Republika, who are committed to holding referendums on Slovakia’s exit from NATO and the EU.
Progressive Slovakia, which has campaigned on continuing aid to Ukraine, improving the health and education systems and stopping the brain drain, would have to convince Hlas, who is too close to Smer. Other possible partners would be the OLáNo coalition, which is associated with the chaos of the failed government, or smaller parties, provided they make it into parliament.
Simecka, who was a journalist before becoming an MEP, has warned that if Fico wins, there could be another country in the EU governed in Orbán’s style, which could have consequences for support for Ukraine. Advisor Szedely emphasizes that everything depends on the partners who enter the government and who occupies the Foreign Ministry. And he sees possible friendly relations between Fico and the Hungarian leader, “with whom he shares very close relationships and opinions.”
The President of Globsec recalls that Smer “has proven himself to be responsible in the past”. “If they move from rhetoric to action, it will be dangerous for the EU and Ukraine, but it is not clear to what extent they will do this,” says Vass, of the limited scope for major change in Slovakia attitude in Europe. “The cost of vetoes is very high and we need EU money,” he adds. Zuborova warns that an SMER victory “could trigger a domino effect, breaking taboos and giving strength to extremists in other countries.” Slovaks will decide where they want to take the country 15 days before Poles also vote, at a critical moment of support for Ukraine among eastern countries. This Sunday we will find out what they have decided.
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