Azerbaijani soldiers are armed in the Shusha region controlled by NagornoKarabakh separatists
More than two weeks after the announcement of Bakuthe military operation of the Azerbaijan in the area of NagornoKarabakh continues running. Azerbaijani troops launched an offensive against areas in the Caucasus region, triggering a large exodus from the region, with separatists of Armenian origin leaving the region. According to official estimates, 88,780 people have left NagornoKarabakh and made their way since the conflict began Armenia. This corresponds to around 75% of the 120,000 residents living there. It is estimated that nearly 600 people died in the Azerbaijani armed forces’ lightning offensive. Around 200 soldiers on both sides were killed in the fighting. An explosion at a gas station on the road between NagornoKarabakh and Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, killed at least 170 people and injured another 349, according to the updated report. Armenians living in the region fear retaliation from Azerbaijan, which is trying to reclaim and reannex the territory that has been out of its control for three decades. The NagornoKarabakh region is majority Armenian and Christian and was separated from Muslimmajority Azerbaijan during the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In an interview with the Jovem Pan NewsPolitical scientist and professor of international relations at the Insper Leandro Consentino analyzed the possible consequences and said that the conflict creates a factor of instability and can “open the doors” for old conflicts to reemerge. “[O confronto] It impacts Asia due to additional instability in the region. This creates another factor of instability that makes the dispute between some powers in the region more intense and violent, especially if one thinks in this case of Russia and Turkey, but also involves local actors. […] The current conflict opens the doors [para novos ataques], just as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia may have opened the door to broader and more serious offensives. This conflict could also reignite old problems, particularly regional ones, which Russia was able to deal with with a heavy hand and which it is no longer able to deal with today. […] What we can observe are small conflicts such as civil wars and minor territorial disputes in Russia’s former sphere of influence. I think that’s the big risk we’re creating, especially given Russia’s weakening in the region,” Consentino said.
The expert also commented on the conflicts of influence in the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, saying that the West is not yet involved in the confrontation, but Turkey can take on the role of opposition to Russia, which has weakened. “It is always possible to use regional conflicts to exploit greater polarizations. In this case, it could be that Turkey, which plays a counter role to Russia, takes on this role from the perspective of proWestern powers. The West is not yet very involved in this battlefield. Although the United States sought greater influence in the Caucasus at this point, and Europe has interests due to geographical proximity, this is not the field on which they fight battles. I think we have a conflict at the regional level that could counteract these eastern allies, unless, for example, Turkey becomes part of the West in this more complex game,” said the political scientist.
When it comes to the Russian position, Consentino assumes that Russia is no longer able to manage other local conflicts in its sphere of influence because it is embroiled in its own confrontation. “What we can foresee is a weakness of Russia at this moment, when it is already embroiled in its own conflict and is unable to manage the dispute between neighbors in which it previously had a strong hand and which it somehow “We see Russia as another weak point that the West can exploit,” he analyzes. Thinking beyond the conflict region, the expert concludes that the confrontation can lead to instability in the market, even if it is regional. “The market likes stability, the economy prefers a more stable world. The more we see the flareup of conflicts, including regional ones, the more instability we observe and the more complicated the international environment becomes in terms of political and economic issues,” he concluded.