To divide
Ukrainian snipes around Sevastopol are showing success: military experts see the Russian Black Sea Fleet in retreat.
Sevastopol – The sinking of the “Moskva” in April 2022 was the beginning of the end – an end that could come faster than Vladimir Putin could have dreamed. The guided missile cruiser was the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Now his commander is probably dead too. Admiral Viktor Sokolov is said to have died at his headquarters in Sevastopol earlier this week (25 September) due to a missile attack from Ukraine. According to British intelligence, this hits deep into the Russian Black Sea Fleet and paralyzes its defense capabilities – at least that’s what businessinsider.com writes.
First victim of the “maritime war” in the Black Sea: the Russian flagship “Moskva” burned and sank in an attack by the Ukrainian army in April 2022. (File photo) © Folheto/AFP
Thus, Ukraine caused more destruction in its counteroffensive in Crimea than in previous attacks. Sevastopol and Russian military installations have repeatedly been the target of escalating attacks. The target of the latest Ukrainian attack on Russian military technology was the Sergo Ordzhonikidze shipyard in Sevastopol, the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, named after the former Russian politician. The submarine “Rostov-on-Don” and the landing ship “Minsk” were damaged. Apparently only three out of ten weapons hit their target.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet is probably only partially operational
The British classify the damage caused by the repeated cruise missile attacks as localized, but above all they consider the Russians’ operational capacity to be seriously impaired – in their regular security update on X (formerly Twitter) they assess the Russian Navy’s Black Sea now seen as being pushed increasingly onto the defensive. According to his assessment, the Russians are still capable of carrying out their main mission: firing cruise missiles and patrolling narrow areas. The only things that would be difficult would be more extensive patrols and blockades of Ukrainian ports.
- The Russian Black Sea Fleet has the following ships – Source: marineforum.online
- 1 guided missile cruiser “Moskva” (sunk)
- 2 anti-submarine frigates
- 7 missile boats
- 2 catamarans with air cushion
- 3 modern frigates
- 6 modern patrol ships (two sunk)
- 1 modern missile corvette
- 4 small missile corvettes
- 6 submarines
- 6 diesel-electric submarines (one damaged)
- 3 modern coastal minesweepers
- 5 ocean minesweepers
- 1 oceanic mine hunter
- 7 DropShips (one damaged)
Auxiliary vessels, microboats and reserve units, platforms
The Black Sea Fleet claims control of the Black Sea, which is almost half a million square kilometers in size. For centuries, Russia has pursued an interest in ice-free access to vital shipping lanes across Europe, which is as warm as possible year-round in the Black Sea. Such access is intended to bolster Russia’s claim as a naval power, writes frigate captain Göran Swistek for the think tank Foundation for Science and Politics. According to author and German captain Axel Stephenson, the Russian Navy would actually need twice as much material in the Black Sea to meet this requirement.
The Black Sea remains in dispute: NATO shows strength
NATO is also observing this: “Romania has now become the lynchpin of the Allied and American presence in the Black Sea region and of the measures introduced there to increase NATO’s deterrence and defense readiness – simply by tripling the contingent of troops from the US to 3,000 troops in Romania. From there, they use their presence and proximity to the fighting in Ukraine for continuous reconnaissance and intelligence gathering. “Drones are also regularly used in international airspace over the Black Sea,” analyzes Göran Swistek.
War in Ukraine: the origins of the conflict with Russia
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The Black Sea region is therefore contested – continued Swistek: “In the maritime domain, the alliance’s presence in the region has largely stagnated since the start of the war of aggression and the entry into force of restrictions on the passage of the Bosphorus imposed by Turkey .” During the annexation of Crimea In 2014, then Romanian President Traian Băsescu told the concurrent NATO summit in Wales that the Black Sea should not become a Russian lake. This is also why NATO is rattling its sabers in the region: “Sea Breeze” is a maneuver by allied forces to show strength in the Black Sea.
Counteroffensive pushes Putin’s fleet back
The maneuver on the northwest coast of the Black Sea is organized annually by Ukraine and the USA. The basis is a 1993 memorandum on military cooperation between Kiev and Washington. The first maneuvers in the Black Sea took place in 1997. According to Frigate Captain Christian Jentzsch, the largest military player in the Black Sea is NATO, represented by the three navies based there, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, followed by the Russian Sea Fleet Black. The military historian who researches for the Bundeswehr supports the assessment of British intelligence officers.
Following Russia’s offensive occupation of the strategically important Snake Island and the threat to Kherson and Odessa, Jentzsch sees the Russians in retreat in the Ukrainian war: “Since the end of September, as a result of the Ukrainian counter-offensive on the land front, there has been signals of retreat of the Black Sea Fleet further Bases located further from the front on the Russian part of the Black Sea coast.” With the sinking of the “Moskva”, the Russian offensive force was significantly tilted. (Karsten Hinzmann)