It wasn’t a good weekend for Volodymyr Zelensky: bad news came from Slovakia and the USA. The American Congress has avoided the “shutdown”, the administrative paralysis, the blocking of services and salaries for all public employees. But the measure, approved by both parties just before the midnight deadline between Saturday, September 30 and Sunday, October 1, does not provide a single dollar of funding for the Ukrainian army.
The first drafts envisaged a $6 billion fund for Kiev, a quarter of the $24 billion package demanded by Joe Biden, including $14 for armaments. American involvement in Ukraine has been held hostage by the ultra-conservative faction in the House of Representatives. More precisely, according to the report of the final vote, by 90 deputies, almost all of whom can be traced back to the Trump orbit.
However, the House and Senate merely extended the flow of current spending until November 17th. The only additional discretionary item is $16 billion to address damage caused by natural disasters. They were long and arduous negotiations, especially within the Republicans. Everything was complicated by regulations: refinancing the federal budget must be approved with two-thirds support in each branch of Congress. The speaker of the House of Representatives, Republican Kevin McCarthy, tried to keep the party together by removing the $6 billion for Kiev from the final text. He didn’t succeed. In the end, the mini-extension was approved only thanks to the convergence of all Democrats, including the most radical wing. The final result is clear: 335 yes votes; 91 votes against (90 Republicans plus Democrat Mike Quigley). Fewer problems in the Senate, with 88 “yes” and 9 “no”.
The political signal, however, is more difficult to decipher. Of course, thanks to parliamentary mechanisms, the Trumpians won an overwhelming victory and forced the party leader to sterilize the budget law. But now we need to understand whether the area of disagreement in Congress is not even larger. How many Republicans gave the green light on Saturday evening precisely because there was no funding for Kiev?
President Biden is trying to maintain the point. Yesterday, in a speech at the White House addressed to the “Ukrainian people” and their “allies,” he said that the United States would “never abandon” Kiev. In the Ukrainian capital, Andrey Yermak, Zelensky’s chief of staff, posted on Telegram: “The Ukrainian delegation returned from the United States with the firm belief that there will be no changes to American support.”
The review cannot be delayed. The Pentagon announced yesterday that it had made a calculation error: there was no $5.5 billion available to send weapons to Ukraine. And the authority to use a “treasure” of 1.5 billion expired on September 30th.
The White House and Democrats, who have a majority in the Senate but not the House, are pushing to submit a special Ukraine-only bill to Congress. At this point, all Republicans must speak out, and perhaps we will understand whether the balance has truly changed. Two elements in the background. On the one hand, there are the surveys. The latest edition, released by CBS on September 10, shows that 54% of Americans still support sending weapons to Ukraine. However, for Conservatives this percentage drops to 39%. The Republican Party is increasingly falling apart. Next week, Congressman Matt Gaetz will introduce a motion to remove Speaker McCarthy.