Russia’s strategy to win the war in Ukraine is to outlive the West.
But how does Vladimir Putin want to accomplish this?
American officials said they believed Putin was trying to end U.S. and European support for Ukraine by using his spy agencies to push propaganda in support of pro-Russian political parties and by promoting conspiracy theories using new technologies stoked.
Russia disinformation aims to increase support for candidates who oppose aid to Ukraine, with the ultimate goal of stopping international military aid to Kiev.
Russia is frustrated that the United States and Europe have largely remained united on continued military and economic support for Ukraine, American officials said.
This military aid has kept Ukraine in the fight, put Russia’s original goals of taking Kiev and Odessa out of reach, and even frustrated its more modest goal of controlling the entire Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.
But Mr. Putin believes he can influence American policy to weaken support for Ukraine and potentially restore his advantage on the battlefield, U.S. officials said.
The officials said Mr. Putin appeared to be closely monitoring U.S. political debates over aid to Ukraine. Republican resistance to sending more money to Kiev forced congressional leaders on Saturday to pass an emergency budget bill that did not include additional aid for the country.
Moscow is also likely to look to promote pro-Russian candidates in Europe, as recent results see potentially fertile ground. A pro-Russian candidate won parliamentary elections in Slovakia on Sunday. In addition to national elections, Russia could try to influence next year’s vote in the European Parliament, officials said.
Russia has long used its intelligence services to influence democratic politics around the world.
U.S. intelligence investigations in 2017 and 2021 concluded that Russia attempted to influence the election in favor of Donald J. Trump. In 2016, Russia hacked and leaked Democratic National Committee emails, damaging Hillary Clinton’s campaign and spreading divisive messages on social media. In 2020, Russia attempted to spread information denigrating Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Although many Republicans in Congress argued that Russia’s goal was to intensify political fighting, not to support Mr. Trump.)
For the 2024 presidential election, American intelligence agencies believe that there is even more at stake for Mr. Putin.
President Biden has sent billions in aid to Ukraine and promised that the United States and its allies will support Kyiv “for as long as necessary.” Mr. Trump, who is well ahead in the polls for the Republican nomination, said supporting Ukraine was not a vital U.S. interest.
According to American officials, Russia is constantly conducting information operations aimed at denigrating NATO and U.S. policies and is likely to step up its efforts in the coming months. The American officials spoke on the condition that their names not be released so they could discuss sensitive intelligence.
Russia’s ultimate goal would be to undermine candidates who support Ukraine and change U.S. policy. Some U.S. officials doubt Russia would be able to do that.
But even if Moscow cannot influence the final election result, the Russians may believe they can ignite a debate over aid to Ukraine to the point that a future Congress could have a harder time passing additional aid, U.S. officials said.
Beth Sanner, a former senior intelligence official, says artificial intelligence and other new technologies will change the way Russia conducts influence campaigns. Russia is also likely to engage in influence operations and send messages to the American public through allies within nominally independent organizations, according to a recently declassified analysis.
“Russia will not give up its disinformation campaigns,” Ms. Sanner said. “But we don’t know what it will look like. We should assume that the Russians are getting smarter.”
It is easy to overstate Russia’s ability to influence U.S. policy. Some American officials and social media executives have questioned the effectiveness of Russia’s 2016 troll farms and influence operations, in contrast to the hack-and-dump operations that targeted Mrs. Clinton’s emails.
And the media landscape has changed dramatically since then. US and European consumers are more skeptical about what they see on social media. Russian state television, a source of the Kremlin narrative, has been pushed out by Google’s YouTube. Meta, Facebook’s parent company, has stepped up its search for disinformation and pushed news on its platforms to the background.
But for every development that makes life more difficult for Russia’s online trolls, there are also trends that go in the opposite direction. The X Platform, formerly known as Twitter, has dismantled teams looking for election interference. And the most influential platform among young people is now TikTok, a Chinese company. China has stepped up its own influence operations, modeled on Moscow’s operations.
American intelligence agencies warn that several countries are trying to influence American politics. In 2020, intelligence agencies outlined an Iranian plan to influence the Florida election. Cuba also conducted low-level intelligence operations, and Venezuela had the intent but not the ability to influence the vote.
But Russia is better than any other country at combining state media, private troll farms and intelligence operations to attack in the digital space, U.S. officials said.
And it has continued to refine its efforts. Many of the disinformation experts who once worked for the Internet Research Agency, the Russian troll farm that was active in the 2016 and 2018 American elections, have moved on to new firms or joined Russian military intelligence. And the Internet, a U.S. official said, is the one place where Russia will never run out of ammunition.
Reframing the debate in Europe and America is so important to Mr. Putin that if these influence operations fail, Russia may decide to escalate.
U.S. officials say the escalation could include additional financial support for pro-Russian political parties in Europe or even covert operations in Europe aimed at weakening support for the war in Ukraine.
Therefore, it would be a mistake to underestimate Russia’s ability to conduct influence operations, American officials said.
For example, Russian disinformation that falsely claimed that America had bioweapons labs in Ukraine continues to reverberate around the globe.
Russia used the allegations to justify its invasion of Ukraine and repeatedly called for a United Nations investigation into its false claims. But right-wing extremist groups, including QAnon, have seized on, expanded and amplified Russian bioweapons allegations.
In a world divided by polarized politics, conspiracy theories and disinformation have proven more resilient than ever.