When was the last good news for the Parti Québécois (PQ)? Close your eyes and search…
Posted at 9:59 p.m.
Since 2008, the PQ has declined in every general election, both in percentage of votes and in number of MPs. The only exception: a four-seat surge in 2012, a bittersweet victory by a minority government against the exhausted Liberal troops of Jean Charest.
In fact, the last victory in a partial competition for the PQ was in November 2010, when André Simard narrowly won Kamouraska-Témiscouata.
The PQ platoon finally managed to apply the brakes and turn the tide. And he does it in an unexpected way: in Quebec, a hostile country. In a constituency the party had never won.
This explains the euphoria that reigned on Monday evening at the Normandin de Sainte-Foy, where smiles and tears mingled. That and the overwhelming lead that exceeded all expectations.
The PQ increases from three to four deputies. He will gain a bit of visibility thanks to his recruit Pascal Paradis. The former director of Lawyers Without Borders Canada is already capable of showing off for the cameras.
The PQ is now a quartet. Its presence is no longer limited to Gaspésie and Bas-Saint-Laurent, with an accidental siege in Montreal (Camille-Laurin) due to the withdrawal of its solidarity rival, caught stealing leaflets from mailboxes…
The PQ remains very far from power. It still has three times fewer MPs than Solidarity and almost five times fewer than the Liberals. But it is above all the symbol that counts.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP) and Mr. Paradis are purifying their party of this smell of decline. This will help them raise more donations. And to be taken more seriously when they talk about different topics.
Her victory itself is undoubtedly also explained by symbolism. From my conversations with the various groups, there was no central theme for this campaign. For example, the third Quebec-Lévis connection had no real impact on the residents of Sillery and Sainte-Foy. The effect was at best indirect – François Legault’s testimony was doubted.
It was probably less about the problem and more about the message. What motivated a Caquiste to add a 90th alternate to the team?
On the other hand, those who judged the government to be a bit overconfident wanted to make their voices heard. All they had to do was find a messenger.
At the start of the campaign, Mr Paradis’ loyalty was questioned – he was interested in becoming a minister for the CAQ in 2022. But the PQ used the matter to its advantage by turning the party into a duel. National surveys – as well as a regional survey with high uncertainty – reinforced this impression.
PSSP seems to have united the voices of the dissatisfied. Liberal and conservative supporters reportedly gave him a chance. Especially because we said that having another MP made a big difference for the PQ.
An aura of romanticism surrounded PSPP, which played the neglected idealistic card and channeled certain popular PQ myths. This aura will not be easy to maintain.
Demographics helped the PQ.
The role of those over 65 appears to have been crucial. More than two-thirds of voters in this age group voted. Among 18- to 34-year-olds, the participation rate was barely above 20%, according to data circulating early Monday evening.
In general, young people are already voting less. And this time there were no polling places on campus. When it’s announced that the installment will be a duel between the two shades of blue, it’s not very tempting to take an hour on a bright fall day to check off your little “x.” Especially when you know that Solidarity candidate Olivier Bolduc was not the first choice of the state executive, who would have liked to see a woman.
Regardless, this disappointing result for QS will fuel debates in the speaker’s race between Ms Ghazal, Ms Labrie and Ms Lessard-Therrien.
For the liberals, the failure is even more painful. The older electorate was generally supportive. But this part shows that French speakers are abandoning them. This will not encourage volunteers to fight for their leadership position. Your voting machine is not what it once was. Apparently the data used to go door to door was not as detailed as that of their opponents.
It would be an exaggeration to compare this part with that in Louis-Hébert in 2017, where Geneviève Guilbault paved the way for the CAQ victory the following year. This time there are still three years until the next campaign. Still, with such a defeat, Mr. Legault suffered his worst political day since June 2015, when he lost Chauveau.
With PQ it is the other way around. After waiting for so long, the sun has just broken through the clouds.